AFL Rd. 11

[TazaD]

Geelong -21.5 Huge over reaction to last weeks results. Geelong had 6 more shots than Freo, and really should have won, and although the 'Pies are off 2 solid wins, now they face the best team at their favourite venue. The Cats have won their last 9 games at the dome, with only one win being by less than 23 points! (v. St. Kilda). The other games they have won by an av. of over 48 points. Geelong won their last meeting at the dome by 29 points, but had 14 more scoring shots and dominated the game. Over their last 5 games Geelong have av. 8.4 more inside 50's than their opp, and Collingwood av. 9.6 less than their opp!! Their attack is infinately better (Geelong are the highest scoring team in the league!, and Collingwood are the 3rd lowest), their defense is better, they will get so much more of the ball that they really should win by a very large margin! Sydney (1.86) Sydney have copped their usual media spray during the week, but there is a world of difference b/w playing St. Kilda at the dome, and then Carlton a week later! The Saints have allowed the fewest inside 50's in the comp (just 45 a game...+7.1), the Blues have allowed 55.4 a game over their last 5 @ -10.2!!) Carlton have allowed the most points for the year, allowed 100+ in all but 2 games, and given up at least 23 shots in every game so far. Of course, Sydney aren't exactly scoring machines themselves, but surely they'll have enough in them to get over the worst team in the comp atm. Either way, getting 1.86 against Carlton is pretty generous. West Coast -17.5 Richmond have played 3 top 8 teams this year and been beaten by 62, 68 and 57. They have been very over-rated by the draw and now look to be struggling, esp. with the loss of Brown. The Eagles loss at the MCG v. Collingwood was due to lack of intensity, but you'd expect them to be a lot more ready for this game. West Coast are far superior in all areas of this game...I'll give them one more chance in Melbourne!

[mattsthebest]

Re: AFL Rd. 11 I was preparing a sizeable investment in Fremantle this week at -23.5 pts, that was until I noticed the weather prediction for the weekend in Perth. Windy with showers for most of the weekend. Was confident the bet was a good one until then, as being a Lions supporter I am well aware of how poorly we have been in WA during our best years! Will be laying off for now. Taza, I'm not sure if you'll be able to answer this, but what is it with Collingwood and the Telstra Dome. They never seem to score many points or allow their opponents to do the same. Are they playing the ground like Sydney play the SCG?

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 11 Yeah...Noticed that aswell, Matt, but think it's as much coincidence as anything. This year....Adelaide 12.9...they can't score. 2003: Dogs 8.18...Couldn't kick straight; Geelong 12.22...ditto. ...In fact, out of 7 games at the dome last year, they only played 3 teams in the top 6. Freo kicked 12.16, St. Kilda belted them 138-91 and Geelong. Geelong had 24+ shots in all but one game this year...provided they can kick straight (which seems to be a huge determining factor in most games this year :@), they should kick a big enough score to win comfortably.

[mattsthebest]

Re: AFL Rd. 11 Bad luck on Geelong last night Taza. I watched the second half and it seemed to me like Geelong were tired, as they lacked their usual run from their backline and midfield.