Beanie Posted May 30, 2005 Share Posted May 30, 2005 Over the past few months, I've noticed on quite a few occasions instances where Ladbrokes had prices which were quite far out of line(lets say shorter) with the general price level, and with alarming regularity these shorter prices are the eventual outcome. I finally decided to put in the work on a potential system this afternoon, when Fight Your Corner won a televised race on Channel 4, with the price up at 20/1, while Ladbrokes went just 10/1. So I'm looking for some System gurus to give me a few suggestions as to how to test this(I'm hypothesising that the Labrokes odds setters are a little better than others). I was thinking along the lines of finding selections where Ladbrokes are the shortest(by a particular %age) and then find the longest price for that selection. Make sense? :\ Needs lots of details worked out(staking ideas, which markets to limit it to(most instances I've noticed are in football markets), etc) and in all probability will turn out to be nothing, but I think its worth looking at. If anyone can give me a push in the right direction, it would be appreciated. Cheers. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted May 30, 2005 Share Posted May 30, 2005 Re: Some system help... Beanie, as no one has replied to you yet, it's probable that devising a 'test' would be difficult. All I can advise is a 'system' you may like to test, it guarantees a profit every time, but the odds have to be right, shortening from long odds to fairly short. It also involves a large bank, compared to its yield. You will place the lay bet on the exchanges, but can use a bookie for the win bet. If you can back a horse to win at 20/1, and have the ability or a proven fool- proof system, (!), to know the odds will shorten down to 10/1 or less, you can do this; Back for £2 at 20/1. lay for 9.0 or less at £4. If your horse wins, you get £40 less your lay loss, £36 = +£4 If your horse loses, you lose win stake of £2, but win your lay bet, +£4, making a profit of £2. A bit of work for £2, but the larger your stake, the more you win, - you can't lose. However, I can't see this scenario presenting itself very often. Good luck!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beanie Posted May 30, 2005 Author Share Posted May 30, 2005 Re: Some system help... Cheers spreadman. Thats certainly an idea...have a look at Laddies prices ASAP, and if they're way out of line with the exchanges, back at that price and wait/hope they fall. However, just to use the 20/1 horse example again - many bookies/exchanges sent off the horse @ 20/1 or thereabouts, while Ladbrokes stuck out like a sore thumb sending it off at 10s, and it won well. This type of situation, where Ladbrokes' price stays out of line right till the off wouldn't allow for much of a back/lay proposition(maybe only slightly). Did they know something the others did it? Were their odds setters just that little bit better than all the rest about rating its relative potential? If so, and the situation arises again, we could potentially use this information(even though we don't know what it is)/better evalution of the race/match, as an indication of the fair price(again this assumes that Ladbrokes are indeed a little better at setting their odds on certain occasions) and thus we probably have value in the top price. If we find an occasion where the high price is a certain %age better than Ladbrokes, then they would be the optimal betting times, and would be a the selections that would be best for testing. I'm rambling now, but Ive got the whole summer to work something out, and then watch it fail miserably. :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 30, 2005 Share Posted May 30, 2005 Re: Some system help... I'd start off by keeping careful records for a while of cases where you notice (before the event!) that Ladbrokes have the shortest price, and of the result. I'm not trying to be sceptical, but I know from my own experience that if you have a vague idea that "something happens unusually often", but don't systematically keep a record of how often it does happen, it's just human nature to notice when it does happen, but downplay in your mind the occasions when it doesn't. For football, at Joe Buchdahl's site football-data.co.uk you can download, for a small fee (£10?), spreadsheets of data for several years including odds from major bookies that you could try out some ideas on. Good luck, anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted May 30, 2005 Share Posted May 30, 2005 Re: Some system help... Know where you're coming from, Beanie, it's a bit of a chicken and egg situation...you need to know which of the ladbroke's 'out of line' horse odds are likely to be winners... I'm assuming here that not all of these horses go on to be winners, so there has to be a pre-race selection process or system. And that's the problem. Good luck with your quest, if I have any more thoughts, I'l let you know. My task for the 'closed season' is equally time intensive - I have to try and make sense of a whole season's football data for each and every televised soccer match and somehow rationalise it to swell my spreadbetting accounts in the new forthcoming season. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted May 30, 2005 Share Posted May 30, 2005 Re: Some system help... Are you sure that Lads kept the prices different right til the off? All bookmakers switch over to oncourse prices around 5 mins before the off so everywhere should have the same price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beanie Posted May 30, 2005 Author Share Posted May 30, 2005 Re: Some system help... Cheers slapdash - I'll check out that site when I get a little cash this summer and do some proper ground work. I know what you mean that it might just be something that doesn't happen to often but simply sticks in my mind when it does, and I guess that's what I want to find out. GL with your task spreadman...something to do whilst sunbathing I suppose(or whilst sitting in from the rain as it is up here :\ ) WFTE - your right - from what McRiriririckirick was saying after the race it sounded like that was the price the horse started the race at while he was mentioning about how short they had it, but some checking on their site shows that it was sent off @ 20/1, so Im not sure how long the 10/1 lasted. I'll probably just stick to football for the system, but at the very least that's something new I've learnt today :ok Another quick question then if anyone can answer - do bookies ever change their prices in response to other bookies' prices? ie If a bookie sets an early price, and all the rest set theirs much higher, will that bookie have faith in their price, or revise a little towards the general level? Thanks again :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris49 Posted May 31, 2005 Share Posted May 31, 2005 Re: Some system help... When looking for the best odds on my "red hot fav's system" It seems to be the case that if one bookie is out of line with the others on the odds they are offering they drop very very quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beanie Posted May 31, 2005 Author Share Posted May 31, 2005 Re: Some system help... Cheers Chris. :ok I'd also be interested in the other way around as well if anyone knows(ie a much shorter price than the rest). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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