Cheltenham Champion Hurdle 2016

[Aidymac]

TRENDS

• 22 of the last 27 winners had won their previous race.
• Champion Hurdle past winners, have often come back and completed the double, the last was Hardy Eustace (2004/05)
• Katchit was the last 5 year old to win the race since 1985 back in 2008. Go for the older horses.
• 4 of the last 10 winners were sent off Favourite.
• Age is crucial in the Champion Hurdle and stats say you need to back a horse aged 6, 7 or 8.
• 14 of the last 18 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at Cheltenham before.
• 6 of the last 12 winners have been trained in Ireland.
• 19 of the last 20 winners came from the first six in the betting.

 

VERDICT

We all know that Faugheen is going to win by a wide margin if he comes here anywhere near his best. He really is a machine and the manner of his victory in the Irish Champion Hurdle was out of this world. However, he is far too short a price to be getting involved with and we need to look at the "Without FAV" market for a bit of a price.

The horse we should back in this market is Nichols Canyon (7/2, Sky Bet). He had a very tough race when he beat Faugheen earlier in the season and was off the bridle a long way from home in the Irish Champion Hurdle. Arctic Fire finished a long way ahead of him that day but lets not forget, Nichols Canyon is a 6 time Grade 1 winner and Arctic Fire has only ever won 1 Grade 1.

 

Back Nichols Canyon W/O Faugheen @ 7/2 Sky Bet

 

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[Blazing Bailey]

Champion Hurdle (prices taken from Bet365)

Faugheen 1/3

As much as I would love to find an angle to get this one beaten, I simply can’t. His last performance was devastating and there isn’t anything else in the field that will get close to him. He does clout a couple but it doesn’t seem to slow his momentum in anyway. Whilst I wouldn’t back him myself at the price, he is probably worth it and if you are having a multiple bet at the festival he has the probably the banker of the 4 days.

Arctic Fire 8/1

We know that Arctic Fire is a good horse and can run to a reasonable standard behind Faugheen I can’t see him reversing that form under any circumstances however he is the obvious candidate to finish 2^nd as he has been doing a good job of it so far in his career. The quicker they go up front the better and with Faugheen, Nicholls Canyon, possibly Top Notch and also Identity Theif in the line-up, I can’t see it being slowly run, so again that should play into hands.

Nichols Canyon 10/1

I actually fancied this horse to give Faugheen a real run for his money last time but it seemed clear to me that the race against Identity Thief a few weeks earlier had taken its toll and that was later alluded to by the trainer of Identity Thief when explaining his decision not to also run in the same race. Its hard to see if he would have got close to Faugheen given how well that one did run but now he has had two tough races and whilst it may be foolish to underestimate the ability of Willie Mullins to freshen him up once more, I am concerned that it will have left enough of a mark and jeopardised any chance he has here.

Peace & Co 14/1

Its hard to know what to make of this horse until he confirms his well-being this weekend, however we know he is a classy horse and has festival form after winning the Triumph last year. We know that both he and Top Notch are closely rated based on that form and we also know that Top Notch is closely rated to Identity Thief and by extension Nichols Canyon based on the Fighting Fifth and Irish form. Whilst he has plenty of form on soft, I do think he would be better suited by good ground (or at least better than soft) whereas I believe Top Notch and Identity Thief may be best suited by a bit more give in the ground.

Identity Thief 14/1

This horse has improved bundles this year and his win and 2^nd on his last two starts give him a place chance in this. I have covered most of the form angles, but being a fresher horse than NC, if it were to come up on the softer side of good, preferably genuinely soft ground then he would be of definite interest.

Camping Ground 16

I don’t think this horse is short of speed so it was a surprise to see him try 24f and the drop back in trip with an aggressive ride would be an interesting proposition however 16f on quick ground would be a big concern, but on soft ground then I could see a big run. He has enough to prove at these prices given the odds of some of those ahead of him with a better chance.

The New One 20

There isn’t much I really need to right here. He will be there or thereabouts and will be challenging for a place but it will be a tough ask for him to beat a couple of these and his jumping will be a big hindrance once more.

My Tent of Yours 25

Your guess is as good as mine here. If Henderson somehow gets him back to 100% for March then he has a chance however I don’t fancy the chances of that.

Top Notch 33

Its not guaranteed that this horse will run here as of yet but if you ignore his last run (trying 20f on bad ground) then you can give his horse a big shout of some place money given the form already mentioned with NC, IT and P&C. I would give this horse a big priced place shout on soft ground.

 

Good or Good to Soft

1. Faugheen

2. Arctic Fire

3. Peace & Co

Soft or worse

1. Faugheen

2. Identity Thief

3. Top Notch

 

I put this up in my thread a few days ago now so the prices are old. I would write Peace & Co out completely now based on the weekends running as it was simply too bad to trust that he will then go and beat a decent field.

Looking in the w/out markets we seem to have around 2/1 for Arctic Fire and 4/1 for Identity Thief. If I am honest I dont really see either of them as value this early without knowing the ground. I would be more tempted by the latter if the ground was softer.

Out of interest does anyone else have an opinion on ground preference for Identity Thief?