PDC Masters 2016

[Fader]

This event kicks off on Saturday 30th January. We've not had to wait too long for more darts and ofcourse next week we have the Premier League starting too.

[Jazzer Isaac]

Unibet Masters Day 1 

Saturday 30th January 

Michael van Gerwen vs Stephen Bunting 

- Michael van Gerwen -4.5 @ 10/11. 1 point. 365. 
- Michael van Gerwen -6.5 @ 3/1. 0.5 points. 365.

Stephen Bunting hasn't looked right for a decent while in my opinion. There has been a noticable slump in both his performances and results, coupled with a visible lack of confidence in his body language and a slight slowing of his throw. I think this has probably been caused by his poor Premier League last season, which has affected so many other players in the past. But whatever the reason, he's playing Michael van Gerwen here, and that is the last person you want to be facing when not feeling the best about your game. 

Van Gerwen is playing the darts of his career. He is the best player in the world and he is still continually improving. Last time out, he was beaten by Raymond van Barneveld in one of the best matches I have ever seen. van Gerwen's performance didn't drop from his usual standard, RvB just turned up with one of his best ever showings. To give an indication to how well van Gerwen is playing, that RvB loss stopped him from making it to EVERY televised final of last season - he won 7 of the 9 finals he did make it to, and he very rarely posted a sub 100 average throughout the entire year.

The World Championship is the one van Gerwen wants, and missing out will have hurt him. But there is a somewhat reliable trend: whenever MvG suffers a disappointment, he bounces back immediately. Loses the Grand Prix Final, next match 111 average; loses the Premier League Final, next match 107 average... If he plays to that standard, we're in with a shout on these.  

This is a first to 10 match, so the -4.5 lands if van Gerwen can win 10-5 or better. 

Of the 9 matches the two players have played since Bunting's switch to the PDC, van Gerwen has won with over double the legs in 6. The majority of these matches were played when MvG was at a slightly worse standard and Bunting was at a much better standard, so it stands to reason that you'd expect it to happen again here if they maintain their current form levels. Factoring in what I believe to be Bunting's lack of confidence and van Gerwen's motivation to bounce back from World Championship disappointment, and I think this could be a tonking. If van Gerwen gets an early break, I see Bunting struggling to recover. 

I think van Gerwen will be very strong on throw and will be quite the favourite against throw too. >10/5 is >2 breaks in 6 Bunting legs. I haven't put any formal calculation to the price, but my fag packet thoughts were 1.7-1.75 would be around about right. Likewise, >10-3 is >3 breaks in 6 Bunting legs and I reckon 3/1 on that is decent too.