mattsthebest Posted May 18, 2005 Share Posted May 18, 2005 Taza, Like both your picks that you posted on another forum (Richmond and Bulldogs with starts) Interested to hear your thoughts on the following market I found on the VIC TAB. I've only included two prices here as these look the most likely. Obviously on a bad day West Coast could be beaten by almost anyone, but after looking at who they play home and away, they have a good run until their last couple of games. West Coast 1st Loss (R9-R22) R20 - Lose to Fremantle @ 35 R21 - Lose to Geelong @ 31 To Remain unbeaten @ 16 :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattsthebest Posted May 18, 2005 Author Share Posted May 18, 2005 Re: AFL Rd. 9 West Coast Eagles Remaining Fixtures: R9 - Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles - MCG R10 - West Coast Eagles vs. Port Adelaide R11 - Richmond vs. West Coast Eagles - MCG R12 - West Coast Eagles vs. Essendon R13 - Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles - MCG (to lose @ 6.5) R14 - West Coast Eagles vs. Carlton R15 - Kangaroos vs. West Coast Eagles - TD (to lose @ 12.0) R16 - West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions R17 - Sydney Swans vs. West Coast Eagles - SCG R18 - West Coast Eagles vs. Hawthorn R19 - Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles - MCG (to lose @ 35.0) R20 - West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle R21 - Geelong vs. West Coast Eagles - SS R22 - West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 18, 2005 Share Posted May 18, 2005 Re: AFL Rd. 9 Interesting one isn't it Matt. As good as any team is, it's near impossible to go through undefeated...They are bound to slip up somewhere. (Remember the Bulldogs beat Essendon in Rd. 21 as huge underdogs in 2000) Richmond and Melbourne are a worry (the two 'favs'). Kangaroos are no hope, but I agree with your last 3. Bulldogs, Freo & Geelong. I'm not a big fan of long term bets, but it sure would be nice holding a ticket for Geelong to win @ 31.00, when they'll very likely be favs! (or at least even) Richmond +17.5 Brisbane simply aren't the side they once were. That's it really! Despite winning the game last week, they were completely out-played. Adelaide had 23 shots to 17, 47 clearances to 36 and 58 inside 50's to 40!!! Given that the Tigers are better than Adelaide in all 3 of those catagories, we can expect some similar numbers this week, which will lead to Richmond kicking a winning score. Sure, the Tiges left it until the last 5 minutes to overcome Collingwood last week but they had 19 more inside 50's (65 to 46) and more than double the clearances (35 to 17!). Power out for Brisbane hurts their midfield even further. Richmond's 2 losses this season have been against legitimate top 4 teams...Brisbane aren't that. Richmond big chance for a win, love getting nearly 3 goals. oh, Richmond lost by 18 points up there last year when they were 15th v. 2nd as 10.00 underdogs!! Doggies +11.5 (1.85) Sydney don't score enough to give points to anyone, especially a Bulldogs team that will find a way to score. Their highest score for the year has been 94 points v. a poor Essendon, and they've averaged just 72 in their last 5 games. Of course they rely on their backline and defensive midfield to win games, but take out a very poor Port team and a very immature Hawks in rd. 1 and they've allowed 81+ in all remaining 6 games. Statistically, Sydney's defense is comparable to Geelong, and the Dogs had 45 points at HT @ Geelong before their structure crumbled with the loss of Darcy. In the last 5 games the Bulldogs have kicked 82 goals to Sydney's 48!, and allowed 78 to Sydney's 67. Remarkably, the teams have played 5 common opponents so far this season (Melbourne, Richmond, Kangaroos, West Coast and Adelaide), and the Bulldogs have done better in all 5 games. No reason at all why the Doggies won't make it 3 wins in a row. Now, Loki...come and give us this weeks upsets could ya! :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattsthebest Posted May 18, 2005 Author Share Posted May 18, 2005 Re: AFL Rd. 9 Let's hope it's the Kangaroos at 4.50! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Loki- Posted May 18, 2005 Share Posted May 18, 2005 Re: AFL Rd. 9 I'll post my picks on friday, still looking at the weekends games. Kind of leaning towards Carlton and Richmond, but i will confirm my picks on friday.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattsthebest Posted May 18, 2005 Author Share Posted May 18, 2005 Re: AFL Rd. 9 What's wrong with the Kanga's! :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 18, 2005 Share Posted May 18, 2005 Re: AFL Rd. 9 What's wrong with the Kanga's! :sad They beat 5 crap teams and now are being exposed. Their midfield is slow and they have the least amount of inside 50's of any team by a fair margin. Once the ball hits the ground in their forward line teams simply run away from Sav and Thompson. Persisting with Petrie at CHF is a joke, surely! Besides that..Not a lot I guess! :ok :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Loki- Posted May 18, 2005 Share Posted May 18, 2005 Re: AFL Rd. 9 Does anyone know of sportodds and there +39.5 start. I thought that maybe a system could be put together. I am really interested in trying it. The odds are a bit short but it could make money in the long run.:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 19, 2005 Share Posted May 19, 2005 Re: AFL Rd. 9 West Coast-29.5 Been keeping my eye on the weather map for a few days, but I'm pretty sure it'll be a fine, clear day in Melbourne Saturday afternoon. First v. last. Two teams heading in very different directions. Collingwood showed last week that they can flood all they want, but eventually they'll get tired and over-run. I just don't see how they'll score in this game. West Coast have allowed only 159 shots at goal this season, and they've allowed the second least inside 50's (364). Over the last 5 games they have allowed a shot at goal every 2.32 entries into the 50, which is the best by a long way! Collingwood have topped 90 only once this season (their only win), and that doesn't figure to change as the Eagles have allowed one score over 84 in 8 games! The midfield of the Eagles is so far superior to the 'Pies it's silly, and Cox in the ruck will be giving them first use all day. Fine day = big win to the Eagles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Loki- Posted May 21, 2005 Share Posted May 21, 2005 Re: AFL Rd. 9 Three possible upsets, Carlton, Richmond, and the Bulldogs. Hope i am lucky as i was last week. Lets hope the Crows weren't the only upset of round 9. Any Good Luck:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 21, 2005 Share Posted May 21, 2005 Re: AFL Rd. 9 Problem is, a lot of the value has gone from these games now, Loki. Been big money coming in all week for esp. the Bulldogs (2.40 & +11.5 into 2.15 & 6.5 now), and Richmond in from 2.80 to 2.65 now and shorter by game time I'd think. I think they'll both win, but happy to have jumped in early in the week. Not sure about Carlton...something not quite right about that game. melbourne should be much bigger favs...Last game at Carlton's 'home' ground might bring out some emotion, but they just aren't a good enough team. Realistically not great odds for the Blues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 21, 2005 Share Posted May 21, 2005 Re: AFL Rd. 9 Dogs now into 2.10 & +5.5....Will start at favs at this rate!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattsthebest Posted May 21, 2005 Author Share Posted May 21, 2005 Re: AFL Rd. 9 Looks like an upset could be on the cards! Collingwood up by 13 pts at half time and West Coast are looking pretty ordinary. Makes me think that they've probably got no chance of making it to round 21 unbeaten, even if they do end up winning this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 21, 2005 Share Posted May 21, 2005 Re: AFL Rd. 9 Eagles 8 up at 3/4 and I fully expected them to run it home! Freo last week, Eagles now....Definately time to start looking a bit more seriously at the Victorian home 'dogs I think. :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattsthebest Posted May 21, 2005 Author Share Posted May 21, 2005 Re: AFL Rd. 9 Upset of the year! I think I jinxed the Weagles with my talk of an unbeaten season. In reality the only teams that will ever have a chance of staying unbeaten are the Victorian teams, due to their favourable draws. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 21, 2005 Share Posted May 21, 2005 Re: AFL Rd. 9 Port v. Essendon.... over 194.5 (2.35)...0.75 units 174-194 (3.90)...0.25 (money back) Ports last 5 at home have been 191, 194, 218, 180 and 158 v. Brisbane but in strong winds, and they've scored 119, 95 and 109 in their last 3 @ home, and over the last 5 games Essendon have allowed the second most inside 50's (behind Collingwood). Two games at AAMI last season, the Bombers went 219 and 220. Essendon's last 5 games have been 199, 184, 214, 152 (kicked 11.17 v. Collingwood who strugle to score), and 206. Port talking about playing more attacking football, should see some scoring tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattsthebest Posted May 21, 2005 Author Share Posted May 21, 2005 Re: AFL Rd. 9 Still night in Adelaide, perfect for free flowing, high scoring football. Good luck Taza. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattsthebest Posted May 21, 2005 Author Share Posted May 21, 2005 Re: AFL Rd. 9 Still night, but you'd need to be a local to know there was going to be that much dew on the ground! Without a doubt the dew had a significant impact on the final score. The number of times the players were unable to mark the ball or pick the ball up cleanly was telling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 22, 2005 Share Posted May 22, 2005 Re: AFL Rd. 9 Yeah, my bad for not waiting until the broadcast began. :( Still 25 shots to 21...Don't think I've ever seen so many easy shots missed by both teams...not to mention Essendon hitting the post 5 times!!! 0-4 last 4 totals...One last chance today. If I can get under 178 I'll give it a crack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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