Logistic picks - My journey towards exploiting the market

[allen29]

Hello. I'm really excited to finally start my own thread after working on developing my betting model. I aim to constantly post my predictions and picks. From time to time, I will also monitor the accuracy of my picks compared to the market  So, here are some brief details about my model and picks.

About the model(s)

Why logistic picks? Because the model that generates the probabilities for the outcomes is a multinomial logistic regression. It combines Elo ratings with with my own ratings developed with data from whoscored and data about injuries and suspensions. The sample used was last seasons from 2009 to 2015 for all covered leagues. There are two models that I use: the main difference between them is that the second one uses data about injuries and suspensions from whoscored. Because of that, the "Preview" page of the game needs to be available before generating predictions. Therefore, any prediction that is more than two days into the future is generated without injuries and suspensions data and from my tests they have lower accuracy (as measured by AUC metric).

Bet selection

I will post my model predictions and my picks. I will try not to have a rigid approach, say bet when the odds value is above X, I will also study a bit the games before placing bets. From my cross-validation tests, my optimal results where when probability difference between was at least 4-5% or the expected value of the bet was at least 10-15%. Usually, the second is my threshold, but I could make some exceptions from time to time.

Leagues covered

For now, I cover the top 5 European leagues and Championship. In the future I would like to add more leagues though.

Odds

The market odds are from Pinnacle as they are very easy to get from their API. However, I will try to look for higher odds at other bookmakers before placing the bets

So, these are my predictions for the upcoming fixtures. Also, my first bets.

Staking plan

Not 100% sure, in principle level stakes. I might do exceptions for long shot games as they pose the greatest threat to the bank. 

 

 

Edited December 28, 2015 by allen29

[jtw1]

Good luck