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Found 2 results

  1. Hello, I am looking for someone who has worked with ELO ratings or even anyone who may be able to offer advice. I am tweaking my own rating system a bit by looking at how ELO ratings are done, so I have put together a spreadsheet of data and ELO rating forumla from another spreadsheet and I have come across an issue with Away Matches. Here is the ELO Data. Crystal Palace Rating -1.01 Liverpool Rating 297.39 Crystal Palace 2 Liverpool 4 Goal Diff 2 Result 0 Rating Diff -298.40 K Factor 50.00 Expected Result 0.15 Points 0 Crystal Palace New Rating -1.01 Liverpool New Rating 297.39 So the way ELO works is based on the rating from points derived from all the other data, with the points being added/subtracted from the pre-match ratings. Now all this is fine for Home matches and Draws but for Away matched there seems to be no points awared at all. So from the above data, with Liverpool having a higher pre-match rating than Crystal Palace, then Liverpool win by 2 goals difference (Crystal Palace 2 Liverpool 4) however after all that both teams are awarded 0 points. So, the whole basis for the points is really based on the Result part of the formula (ie 1 for Home win, 0.5 for a draw and 0 for an away win.) Why is this, can anyone explain why. Please look at my spreadsheet and look at the Crystal Palace - Liverpool data on line 95 Thanks -0.24 73.29 148.69 -420.98 -147.40 295.11 -247.54 -148.19 -122.76 0.19 -25.21 247.54 297.39 76.00 -49.68 370.05 -123.30 newdata.xlsm
  2. Hello. I'm really excited to finally start my own thread after working on developing my betting model. I aim to constantly post my predictions and picks. From time to time, I will also monitor the accuracy of my picks compared to the market So, here are some brief details about my model and picks. About the model(s) Why logistic picks? Because the model that generates the probabilities for the outcomes is a multinomial logistic regression. It combines Elo ratings with with my own ratings developed with data from whoscored and data about injuries and suspensions. The sample used was last seasons from 2009 to 2015 for all covered leagues. There are two models that I use: the main difference between them is that the second one uses data about injuries and suspensions from whoscored. Because of that, the "Preview" page of the game needs to be available before generating predictions. Therefore, any prediction that is more than two days into the future is generated without injuries and suspensions data and from my tests they have lower accuracy (as measured by AUC metric). Bet selection I will post my model predictions and my picks. I will try not to have a rigid approach, say bet when the odds value is above X, I will also study a bit the games before placing bets. From my cross-validation tests, my optimal results where when probability difference between was at least 4-5% or the expected value of the bet was at least 10-15%. Usually, the second is my threshold, but I could make some exceptions from time to time. Leagues covered For now, I cover the top 5 European leagues and Championship. In the future I would like to add more leagues though. Odds The market odds are from Pinnacle as they are very easy to get from their API. However, I will try to look for higher odds at other bookmakers before placing the bets So, these are my predictions for the upcoming fixtures. Also, my first bets. Staking plan Not 100% sure, in principle level stakes. I might do exceptions for long shot games as they pose the greatest threat to the bank.
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