Players Championship

[owenclass]

Another tournament and Van Gerwan is favourite for this so i cant see anyone else winning it

[Jazzer Isaac]

Players Championships Finals 2015.
Friday 27th November.

3:30pm

Brendan Dolan vs Simon Whitlock - Simon Whitlock @ 10/11. 2 points. Betway. 

Early but I like this one. I'm really not expressing myself coherently in the write up but I hope you can see the general point. It reads like a ramble.

-Whitlock's good game beats Dolan's good game.
-Whitlock's average game beats Dolan's average game.
-Whitlock's poor game beats Dolan's poor game.
-Dolan has just dipped out of form recently and is on the slide at the moment.
-Whitlock has been out of form for a while but he is showing signs of finding something imo. He won't threaten a tournament win like he used to, but he is definitely playing better than this time last year .
-I expect Dolan to throw his average to poor game and Whitlock to throw his average game.
-Whitlock will think he will win, I'm not sure if Dolan will.

-Analogously, Dolan has begun his journey down the slide. Whereas, Whitlock has already reached the bottom and is in the process of climbing back up. 
-Crucially, Whitlock's slide starts and finishes at higher points than Dolan's slide does.

-Can't explain this point well because I'm not a statistician and I'm mapping between odds and chance, but the graph of Whitlock odds vs density that I have in my mind's eye has a mean between 8/11 and 4/5 but a much smaller median. 
-The graph I see has a strong positive skew, which decays to zero fairly quickly after you hit evens.
-If you took a sample of bookies, you'd get Whitlock 4/6 more times than you'd get him at our 10/11, for example.

-Possibly topping up another point.
-Not all odds are out yet, but I think it's VERY unlikely that this price will be beaten.