****Race Of The Week: Group 1 1m Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes****

[Master Joe]

Every week I will put up a thread for Race Of The Week. This weeks race is the Group 1 1m Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes run at Newbury on Saturday. Here's the Final 11 Horses in the Race:

2:40 11 run

Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (4yo+) Winner £132,820.00

CH4 1m

No.	Form	Horse	Trainer		Wgt	Jockey	RPR
1(10)	920-	Antonius Pius 153	A P O´Brien	4	9-0	K Fallon
2(7)	01-2	Arakan 17	Sir Michael Stoute	5	9-0	M J Kinane
3(9)	1-12	Autumn Glory 13	G Wragg	5	9-0	S Drowne
4(4)	1d-73	Babodana 21	M H Tompkins	5	9-0	R Hills
5(8)	1419	Elvstroem 20	T Vasil	5	9-0t	N Rawiller
6(3)	1421	Grand Emporium 49	Saeed Bin Suroor	5	9-0	L Dettori
7(11)	3221	Hurricane Alan 21	R Hannon	5	9-0	P Dobbs
8(6)	83-1	Le Vie Dei Colori 21	L M Cumani	5	9-0	J P Murtagh
9(1)	91-4	Mac Love 17	J Akehurst	4	9-0	G Carter
10(5)	107-	Rakti 153	M A Jarvis	6	9-0	P Robinson
11(2)	1-11	Tarfah 13	G A Butler	4	8-11	J P Spencer

[Master Joe]

Re: ****Race Of The Week: Group 1 1m Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes**** Source: Attheraces IT could be his greatest challenge yet. But after successfully negotiating the dodgem ride on Gypsy King at Chester last week, Kieren Fallon is fancied to find the key to Antonius Pius in the Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes at Newbury on Saturday. There are few horses around with the natural ability of this exasperating Danzig colt, but last year he had Aidan O’Brien and the hapless Jamie Spencer reaching for the wigs after throwing away victory in the French 2000 Guineas and Breeders’ Cup Mile (pictured). On both occasions he would have won had he gone through with his effort, but it’s surely significant that he has been kept in training to land the all-important Group One win that is needed to cement a stallion career at Coolmore. O’Brien clearly hasn’t lost faith in the horse and it has to be a positive sign that a month ago he publicly earmarked this race as the starting point for Antonius Pius’s four-year-old career. And then there is the Fallon factor. Not even Jamie Spencer’s greatest fan would argue he covered himself in glory during his tenure at Ballydoyle and while no blame could be attached to him for the colt’s sudden swerve into the rails at Longchamp, the rider’s eroded confidence can’t have helped in later races. Fallon, on the other hand, is imperious just now, having started his new job in the best possible way with those brilliant Guineas victories on Footstepsinthesand and Virginia Waters. He is the right man at the right time for Antonius Pius, who will have been trained to the minute for his first race of the season as not even O’Brien would bank on him being better later in the year given his explosive temperament. Once you take the pin out, the grenade is likely to go off. The key to the horse’s chance will be to get him settled at the rear of the field, so expect a Virginia Waters-style ride from Fallon. O’Brien said last year that Antonius Pius has a turn of foot that "would kill a horse" and that he needs to be ridden like Nijinsky — that’s a measure of how highly he rates him. Spencer managed that to a large extent in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last year, but in the fastest mile race of the year and on the toughest mile course around, the colt was outstayed rather than outbattled by Azamour and Diamond Green (right). That is top-class form though — Haafhd, impressive winner of the 200 Guineas and subsequently the Champion Stakes, was a close fourth — and a reproduction of his effort there would give him a terrific chance on Newbury’s much less demanding straight-mile track. The ground will be an important factor, of course, but with the weather set fair for the week, it’s likely to be on the fast side come Saturday, thereby putting the emphasis very much on speed. In a race that could justifiably be called the battle of the nutcases, the ante-post market is headed by Rakti, whose impressive, if erratic record suggests he will either dot up or finish out with the washing. Michael Jarvis’s star can be brilliant at times — witness his victories in the Champion two seasons ago and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes last year (Antonius Pius well-beaten after running much too free) — but his trainer admits that everything hinges on what sort of mood the horse is in on the day. With the Jarvis team in cracking form, the six-year-old is sure to be a popular fancy and there’s no arguing with a record that shows he has won first time out in each of the four seasons of his career to date. Interestingly, though, Jarvis is talking up the prospects of an Arlington Million/Breeders’ Cup campaign and with those races coming up much later in the year, I just wonder if Rakti will be as sharp as the selection this week. He also has to overcome the age stats in a race that strongly favours four and five-year-olds. Sir Michael Stoute upset the trends boys last year when winning the race with a filly, Russian Rhythm, and now he attempts to rub salt in their wounds by repeating the feat with Chic (right). The daughter of Machavellian has a very progressive profile, but it was noticeable how she improved in the second half of last season and with trainers all agreeing it has been a difficult winter for fillies, she may be another who will be better later in the year. Stoute also has Arakan lined up, but the five-year-old appears just below Group 1 class and is probably better suited to seven furlongs. Le Vie Dei Colori, a Group 1 winner in Italy two seasons ago, merits respect on his third to Soviet Song in the Sussex Stakes last summer, but doubts remain as to the true merit of that form given that Antonius Pius was badly hampered that day and Haafhd and Refuse To Bend both ran no sort of race. Godolphin have a good record in the Lockinge, so expect a decent show from ex-South African Grade 1 winner Grand Emporium, the intended mount of Frankie Dettori, though his form on dirt in Dubai this winter leaves him with a bit to find in this company. The fast-improving Tarfah also has questions to answer going up sharply in grade and tackling the colts, but if the heavens open unexpectedly, Autumn Glory would be worth a saver as he looks a high-class performer on soft ground. Recommended bet: Antonius Pius 1pt win @ 7/1 (price correct as at 2pm 10/5/05)