NFL: Week 1

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Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots – 1pt Patriots -7 @ 20/21 with Ladbrokes Here we go again. The reigning champions host the Steelers in the first game of the regular season and what a mouth-watering prospect we could have had. The Steelers come in to this match without key players, namely Le’Veon Bell, Martavis Bryant and MaurkicePouncey. For those unaware, all three of these guys are big players on offense for the Steelers. Bell is one of the best RBs in the league who would be missed by any side whilst Martavis Bryant is a frequently-used WR. Pouncey started every game last year and we always hear about how hard it is to replace a centre because the position does require a high level of understanding with the QB. Antonio Brown would have come in to this game with big expectations on his shoulders anyway but without Bell and Bryant the pressure has just gone up a notch. He’ll probably be the only man the Steelers can ask to come up with big plays when needed and for anyone that is a tough situation to be in.It’s hard to predict how the Steelers will do on the road this season because most of the venues they visited last season were occupied by very average sides (at best). The Patriots aren’t without problems either. Vince Wilfork has left the building and replacing a leader like that who has performed at the top level for so long will be tough. In Revisthey’ve lost a big-time performer and they now look light at cornerback but, with no Bell or Bryant to deal with, they should get by in this game. The Patriots have also parted ways with a couple of players who had the potential to have big games in their bit-part roles. The over-reliance on Gronk does concern me but that is more a concern for over the course of a season rather than in each game. Despite all of this, the fact remains that the Patriots are a formidable force at home. After the off-season they had they’ll want to come out with a bang and I fully expect them to do so. This bet is more about who the Steelers have left at home, hopefully the Patriots will take full advantage.

[Mirage]

Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets – 1pt Jets -4.5 @ 11/10 with Bet365 The Jets come in to this game after an up and down off-season. Getting the likes of Revis, Cromartie and Marshall in has given the franchise a much needed boost whilst seeing Williams fall so far down the draft was a nice little bonus. Williams will have a big role to play this Sunday thanks to some idiotic decision-making by Sheldon Richardson. Williams is in a nice position here as he’s slotting in to a defense that has proven performers in every position. Yes, the pressure will be on because of his reputation but he won’t be required to be the star straight away. He’s got time to bed in. Joining Richardson on the sidelines for the season-opener is QB Geno Smith, again thanks to some idiotic-decision making. Smith will be replaced by Ryan Fitzpatrick, a man who is known for taking chances – a ‘gunslinger’ if you like. In Decker and Marshall the former Texan has a couple of quality targets to hit. He should have no worries about going for the big plays knowing how good the Jets’ O-line and defense are/should be. The Browns come in to this game with Josh McCown as their starting QB, no quality RB and a couple of average WRs. I just can’t see how they’ll be able to create scoreboard pressure. Even if McCown has a good day behind an O-line that is able to stand its ground, he still has to get passes past the formidable pairing of Revis and Cromartie. The Jets’ defense should dominate here so McCown is likely to face pressure on a regular basis and, without a running game to turn to, things could turn messy. Whilst the Jets look like a side who are a QB away from making a run for the play-offs, the Browns are missing a lot of pieces. The lack of scoring options for the men from Cleveland should cost them in New Jersey.

[Mirage]

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills – 1pt Colts -3.5 @ 11/8 with SkyBet Everyone seems to be well-and-truly on the Bills-for-the-play-offs bandwagon going in to this season but I’m not so sure. Don’t get me wrong, I see where people are coming from and think they have half a chance but I have big reservations about their QB options. Tyrod Taylor looked good in the preseason and he could turn out to be the piece of the puzzle the Bills need but, we have seen a number of QBs crumble when Week 1 comes around. In Lesean McCoy Taylor has a good RB to take the pressure off him but I have a feeling that Buffalo will need to put at least 4 touchdowns on the board here. That will require some clutch plays from their QB and I’ve seen nothing yet to suggest that he is capable of handling pressure – especially pressure against one of the main contenders. As I have said previously, I see the Colts being involved in a number of high-scoring games this season and if LeSean McCoy goes well here this could be the first. It may come down to Luck vs Taylor and McCoy vs Gore. Rex Ryan’s arrival in Buffalo virtually guarantees that every visiting QB will face pressure however; Andrew Luck is one of the best in the business when it comes to using his feet and playing out of the pocket. In Hilton and Johnson he has two great WR options and if Dorsett lives up to his billing there could be too many options for the Bills to cover. I do have reservations over the Colts’ defense but, although they will need to cover the likes of Watkins and McCoy, they must come here with confidence knowing they’re up against an inexperienced QB. If this does turn in to a shootout I fully expect the Colts to come out on top and they should do so relatively comfortably, pulling away in the latter half of the game.

[Mirage]

Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers – 1pt 49ers to win @ 11/10 with Stan James This for me is the definition of a 50-50 matchup. The offseason stories around these two have been at opposite ends of the scale with the press thinking the Vikings are set for a good season and that the 49ers will find it tough to recover from losing so many proven performers. The main stories surrounding the Vikings over the past year or so have usually had something to do with Adrian Peterson. The star RB returns in this game and that should immediately release some of the pressure on Bridgewater to live up to expectations. Everyone seems to have Bridgewater pencilled in for a very good year and although I do think he’ll be in this league for years to come, I still need convincing that 2015 is the year he goes from good to very good. The second-year QB had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 14-12 last year and the side went 6-6 in games he started. Overall the Vikings finished a respectable 7-9 but away from home they were dire, only recording 2 wins from their 8 games. One of the main reasons they couldn’t get to .500 was that their offense wasn’t consistent. They were 27^th in the total yards standings and whilst they should do better than that with Peterson on the field, it is their passing game that requires the biggest improvement. They’ve brought in Mike Wallace but whether Bridgewater can hit him consistently (especially with the deep ball) remains to be seen. The defense was fairly solid overall but there was a big difference between their play against the pass (the good) and their play against the run (the bad and the ugly). The 49ers are a team with a lot to prove to a lot of people in 2015. Any team that loses the likes of Gore, Crabtree, Iupati, Willis, Borland, the Smiths and a couple of more will find it hard. I do however think people have written them off a bit too quickly, especially those who think they’ll only record 4 or 5 wins. In Colin Kaepernick the 49ers also have a QB who is looking to make that jump up to the next tier. I’m not convinced by what the guy has done so far but there is no denying that he has the potential to be special. It’s his ability to go from very good to awful within a set of downs that worries me. In Dockett and Torrey Smith the 49ers have brought in a couple of players who should be able to handle the expectations on their shoulders but I think the biggest boost for them is the return of NaVorro Bowman at linebacker. The linebacker returns after sitting out of the full 2014 season with injury and he will need to come in to this game like he has never been away. His performance will go a long way to deciding how well Peterson does. In Carlos Hyde I think the 49ers have a man to fill the big gap left by Gore and Jarryd Hayne looks like a guy who can come up with big plays. Those two RBs will be licking their lips at the prospect of facing this Vikings defense. In short, yes the 49ers have lost some big names but they still have plenty of people on their roster who are capable of leading from the front. The Vikings still come in to this with a couple of question marks over them so odds-against for the home side represents a bit of value in what I think is essentially a 50-50 game.