Flat Racing ~ Thursday (Goodwood Day 3)

[BillyHills]

Glorious Goodwood – Thursday 30^th July Day 3 of the Goodwood Festival is Ladies Day and features three Group races and the headliner is the Qatar Goodwood Cup over two miles which is part of the British Champions Series. The Richmond Stakes and the Lillie Langtry are the supporting acts along with 3 handicaps and the obligatory maiden contest. 2.05: Land Rover Stakes (Class 2 handicap) (1m1f192y) Tough 3yo handicap to start the day and one that the Johnston team has won for the last two years, in fact he got the 1-2 twelve months ago. He saddles Resonant (W.Buick) and Triple Dip (S.De Sousa) this time and of the pair you would have to prefer Resonant with his course form. Racing History will be fancied to complete his hat-trick after his improved form enabled him to win at Haydock and Chester; he’s the progressive one in the line up for sure. I like Keble from the Gosden yard, I think his form at Windsor is solid and is not badly handicapped on a mark of just 91. Selection: Keble 8/1 >Paddy Power 2.35: Qatar Richmond Stakes (Group 2) (6f) A 2yo colt’s race over 6f that the Hannon yard has won four times since 2009. Ivawood was successful last year and Log Out Island flies the flag this time round who was a fair second in the Norfolk Stakes. The favourite is Shalaa who won the July Stakes well enough from another of todays rivals Steady Pace, he should confirm that form. Ballydoyle send over Air Force Blue, his second in the Coventry Stakes looks as good as anything to me and could go one better here. Selection: Air Force Blue 11/4 >BetVictor 3.10: Qatar Goodwood Cup (Group 2) (2m) With the most recent winners being Cavalryman and Brown Panther, I have to say this doesn’t look a vintage Goodwood Cup. They are headed by Trip To Paris who carries the Group 1 penalty for winning at Ascot. It’s hard to believe he was rated just 88 at the start of the season. The dangers are Big Orange who needs to prove he stays this trip and the old boy Simenon who’s been and done it all before and was a decent fourth at Ascot recently. An each way shout for Quest For More is my idea of a wager, he won nicely last time out in the Northumberland Plate and has also won here at Goodwood and looks a very solid option. Selection: Quest For More EW 7/1 Stan James 3.45: The Lillie Langtry Stakes (Group 3) (1m6f) Arabian Comet was runner up to Missunited in this race twelve months ago and looks in fair enough form in her attempt to go one better. She was third here in May and last time out was fourth at Newmarket in the Aphrodite Stakes. Jordan Princess won that day but had the run of the race from the front and I doubt whether she will be able to do likewise here. The German filly Kaldera has to be respected, she has won in this grade and went close in a Group 2 last time and could be value in an open looking renewal. Selection: Kaldera 9/1 >Paddy Power 4.20: EBF New Ham Maiden Fillies’’ Stakes (7f) Amazing Maria won this in 2013 and Shagah for the Hannon and Hughes combo last year so some decent quality has been found in this maiden. The best form on offer looks to be the third at Newmarket of Notary a couple of weeks ago. She was headed close home that day and will know more now. Luca Cumani saddles Haggle who was a fair third to Ballydoyle at the same venue and probably wants further than this. Of the newcomers, we have to respect Sunset Dream who hails from the Richard Hannon yard the Godolphin debutant Pure Diamond. Selection: Notary 9/4 >William Hill 4.55: Telegraph Nursery Stakes (Class 2 handicap) (7f) The first Nursery of the week and a race that the Mark Johnston yard are well represented. They won it last season with Grigolo and look to have a fair sort in Montsarrat who won at Salisbury over this trip and followed up at Catterick last time. Martini Time has also won her last two races and is the highest rated Johnston runner. Melabi improved a lot from his debut at Newmarket to win nicely next time at Doncaster; he looks a typical Haggas progressive type and could be the one to beat. Selection: Melabi 6/1 >BetVictor 5.30: Tatler Stakes (Class 3 handicap) (5f) A very competitive 3yo handicap to end the day and it may pay to start with the lightly raced Maljaa trained by Roger Varian. He went close last time at Newmarket and looks fairly weighted. Rathaath is another with just four starts to his name and has won two already. He’s only up two pounds for his latest success and is not out of it. Of those with plenty of experience Patrick is interesting for the Fahey yard. He’s won at 6f and 5f and comes here in top form. Midlander is also in great heart having won his last four, he won at Ascot last time and now has to contend with another 6lb hike. Selection: Maljaa 13/2 >William Hill

[beaker1]

2.05 Goodwood – Land Rover Stakes (Handicap) The third day of the meeting starts with a 1m2f handicap and the favourite at this stage looks likely to be RACING HISTORY who made a mockery of his mark of 91 on his handicap debut a couple of weeks ago. He was slowly away and took a while to get going but once he got into top gear in the straight he really kicked on and won with more in hand than the winning margin suggests. The handicapper has responded by putting him up 9lb but I’m not sure that is going to be enough to stop him here. My only concern is that he was still very green last time and in a competitive race such as this one it might all happen a bit quickly for him. Having said that, he could just be a bit better than handicap company and from a good draw I think he can overcome his inexperience to land a sizeable pot for his connections. Those of you who remember will know that I fancied Lord Ben Stack to run well at Haydock at the beginning of the month and having been delivered late, he just wasn’t able to gather in Cymro who re-opposes today. He was keen early on that day in a small field and this bigger field should be more suitable given the stronger pace that they are likely to go. His connections were contemplating a return to Group company had he won that day so I would think that he is a good bit better than his current mark of 95. He is drawn well in stall 2 and I don’t think he will be too far away at the finish. The partnership of John Gosden and Frankie Dettori has been a potent combination this term and they team up with the lightly-raced Keble here. His only success in his career to date came in a course and distance maiden at the beginning of June and he was unlucky to run into a smart colt of Ralph Beckett’s at Windsor last time. He has not been harshly treated by the handicapper who increased his mark to 91 and it is interesting that connections have reached for the cheekpieces for the first time. He should be able to get into a good position from stall 9 and I think he could give the favourite plenty to think about. The final member of the shortlist is William Haggas’ Awesome Power who I fancied to run well at the July meeting but he just ran so sort of race on the day. His trainer said that the ground may have been too quick for him that day and that he would be better suited with some cut in the ground. This ground should be more suitable for him and if he can get back to the form which saw him beat Western Reserve, then he looks a major player. 2.35 Goodwood – Qatar Richmond Stakes (Group 2) Perhaps the premier two-year-old of the week and I have to admit I am a big fan of John Gosden’s SHALAA who some of you will know I tipped on debut when he was absolutely clueless at Newbury, albeit behind some pretty smart rivals. Having won a maiden on the Rowley Mile in good style, I wasn’t sure whether he was ready for the step up to Group company in the July Stakes but he proved me wrong emphatically, winning despite drifting across the course. His trainer commented that he has always been their fastest two-year-old and that he is still very much learning mentally. He has a 3lb penalty for his July Stakes success but is clearly a colt on the up and Ivawood managed to do the double twelve months ago. I like him and given how he drifted under pressure last time, it suggests to me that there could be more to come and he could stake his claim as one of the best two-year-olds around with another success here. Having finished second in the Coventry Stakes to Buratino, we need to be aware of Aidan O’Brien’s Air Force Blue whose maiden form has also worked out well. He was well clear of the third at Royal Ascot and with this just being his third start, you would have thought there should be more to come from him. He was described as ‘a bit of a baby’ after his Coventry run which suggests there is still a bit to work on, although I don’t think he has lots to find to be competitive here. He has broken quickly on both his starts to date and he is drawn close to the rail so it will be interesting to see whether they decide to send him forward early on. There aren’t many holes to pick in his form and he should give another good account of himself. Of those yet to tackle Group company, there is plenty to like about Tasleet who won for the second time at Newbury a couple of weeks ago. That was in Listed company and he overcame trouble in running to get up close home and land the spoils. William Haggas’ colt showed a good turn of foot that day as well as a willing attitude and of those outside the front two in the market, he could offer some each-way value in the race. 3.10 Goodwood – Qatar Goodwood Cup (Group 2) Ed Dunlop’s Trip To Paris has been the stayer of the season so far having won both the Chester Cup before stepping up to win the Ascot Gold Cup on his latest start. The last horse to do the double was the brilliant Yeats who won it in 2006 and 2008 and the four-year-old bids to add his name to that illustrious list here. A feature of his victories has been the turn of foot he shows at the end of a race and so the drop back to two miles should if anything suit him better. He hasn’t run here in the past so that is a slight concern and he has been drawn out wide in stall 11 which isn’t ideal. He is justified in his position at the head of the market but I wonder whether we might be better looking for something to take it on. A stayer on the up could be Andrew Balding’s Scotland who was stepped up to 2m4f for the first time in the Gold Cup at Ascot and was staying on well at the line under a patient ride from Jim Crowley. He was probably ridden for a place that day and now that connections know he stays, he could be more ridden more prominently here. He is drawn well in stall 3 so should be able to get out and secure a position and he is very unexposed in these sorts of contests. He ran well here in the Gordon Stakes last year but was just outclassed a little and this sort of race looks right up his street. He is a stayer going the right way and at around 12/1 I could not put anyone off backing him each-way. However, Amanda Perrett’s EYE OF THE STORM did us a good turn when winning the Listed Coral Marathon a few weeks ago and I think his trainer has had this race in mind since she got him. In his earlier days with Aidan O’Brien he was a very good stayer beating Missunited over 2m at the Curragh before finishing third in the Long Distance Cup at Ascot, where he was beaten less than a length. He made his debut for the yard over an inadequate 1m4f in May and was far from disgraced, finishing third behind Ayrad and Rawaki. He travelled like he was going to win by a lot further at Sandown last time but didn’t do a lot in front and only won by a head at the line. His jockey admitted he got there a bit soon and under a more patient ride, he looks to have an excellent each-way chance at around the 10/1 mark. 3.45 Goodwood – Markel Insurance Fillies´ Stakes (Group 3) William Haggas’ ARABIAN COMET finished second to Missunited in this race twelve months ago and looks likely to show up well in the race once again here. She has run well twice this season over 1m4f although on both occasions there was not a great deal of pace early on and she did well to make up ground from the back of the pack. The step up to 1m6f will definitely be in her favour as she is a strong stayer and her last two runs should have put her spot on for this assignment. She will need a bit of luck in running as she tends to be held up in her races but she is unexposed at this trip and I think it will bring out the best in her. Jordan Princess has been running in many of the same races as Arabian Comet and got off the mark for the season last time at Newmarket. She was switched to front-running duties with her connections having bemoaned a lack of pace in her earlier races and it suited her well, holding off the challenge of Dream Child in the closing stages. We know she handles the track as she won a handicap here last August and she continues to give the impression that she is improving. I’m not sure that the extra two furlongs will necessarily be in her favour and whilst I think she will run well once again, I slightly prefer William Haggas’ filly at the trip. At a much bigger price, Sir Mark Prescott’s Alwilda is a strong stayer and was last seen finishing second in Listed company at the end of June. That was over two miles and although she was outclassed behind Vent Du Force in this sort of company in May, on the best of her form she wouldn’t be too far away from some of her rivals. There are a couple of fillies who are far from certain stayers in the race and if they fail to see out the trip, this filly could run into a place at around the 20/1 mark. 4.20 Goodwood – EBF British Stallion Studs New Ham Maiden Fillies´ Stakes As with all of the maidens this week, experience has been the order of the day and this race is no different with no winning debutant in the last decade. It has been won by some smart fillies including Gifted Girl and Amazing Maria but both had had at least one start under their belts. Of those with experience, I think HAGGLE is the one to be with having finished third behind Aidan O’Brien’s Ballydoyle at Newmarket’s July meeting. She was keen early on but was ridden patiently by Adam Kirby and made good late headway to run into the places. The yard are not known for their first-time out winners so it is no surprise that she wasn’t forward enough to get her head in front but this was nevertheless a smart introduction. The form of the race has already been boosted with the fourth Justice Lass having come out and won since and I would expect Luca Cumani’s filly to improve a bit for that initial outing. She has a Rockfel entry later in the year and she looks to have the right sort of profile to go close here. Charlie Hills’ Turaathy should also come forward from her run at Newmarket having shown signs of inexperience throughout her debut. She took a keen hold early on and took a while to quicken under pressure from her rider before staying on inside the final furlong. She should come on for that initial experience and the extra furlong should also play into her favour. I would expect her to step up on that debut and she won’t be too far away at the business end of the race. Of the debutants, Andrew Balding is reported to think quite a lot of Lady Perignon whom connections paid 185,000 euros for at the sales as a yearling. Her stallion Poet’s Voice has already made a good start to his career in the breeding shed and although the yard are not renowned for their first time out winners, I would not be surprised to see her show up well on her first start. The Richard Hannon team have tended to come on for their first runs this term but they have had a couple of first-time winners so Sunset Dream also needs considering here. Purchased for 130,000 guineas as a yearling, the agents who bought her as well as her trainer have spoken positively about her homework and with the yard having taken this prize twice in the last ten years, I can’t imagine she will be too far away at the business end of the race. 4.55 Goodwood – Telegraph Nursery Stakes (Handicap) Mark Johnston has won this race twice in the last ten years and with his juveniles in excellent form it would be foolish to rule out the chances of Montsarrat who has won his first two starts. The latest of those successes saw him make a mockery of his mark of 74 when being eased down to win by one and a quarter lengths at Catterick although this race is obviously stronger. He gets a 6lb penalty for that victory and although it will be slightly harder to get over and lead from stall 7, it would be no surprise to see him show up well once again here. MELABI got off the mark at the second attempt at Doncaster last time and much like his debut at Newmarket, he was still very green and slowly away from the stalls. However, he showed a good turn of foot to cut down the leader in the closing stages and I think he is probably worth more than the winning margin suggested that day. He is obviously quite highly thought of given that he is entered in the Group 1 Phoenix and Middle Park Stakes and I think there is plenty more under the bonnet than what we have seen so far. He seems to be coming along steadily and whilst a mark of 80 is not overly generous I think he can prove a good deal better than that before the end of the season. Those of you who have read my horses to follow list will be familiar with Ann Duffield’s My Amigo as he came with a late swoop to deny Blue Humor at Newcastle back in May. He is a big grey colt but looks to possess plenty of ability and his trainer spoke glowingly about him on the back of his debut effort. He should come on for that initial experience and from stall 3 he should be able to be positioned wherever he likes by PJ McDonald. Handicap marks are hard to assess with two-year-olds as there is so little to go on but this looked a potentially smart performer on debut and being trained in the north, he could be a little overpriced as a result. I fancy him to go well and if coming on for his debut, he looks to have strong each-way claims. Towards the bottom of the weights, Mick Channon’s Jaadu is worth a mention having run in three good maidens in the early part of the season. He was not beaten far when sixth behind Zebstar on debut before disappointing next time at Ascot, although that race did include Steady Pace, Beaverbrook and King Of Rooks. He also ran into some smart rivals next time at Goodwood when behind Strong Challenge and Gutaifan and it is possible that he is well-treated on the back of those efforts. Don’t get me wrong, he needs to improve on what he has shown so far but if there is a ‘well-handicapped’ horse in the race he could be it. His trainer Mick Channon has had some success with two-year-olds here over the years and from a good draw, I would not be surprised to see him step forward and go close here. 5.30 Goodwood – Tatler Stakes (Handicap) Under a 6b penalty, it is hard to dismiss the chances of Mark Johnston’s Midlander who comes here in search of a five-timer, having landed a big pot at Ascot last Friday. He led early on and pulled out plenty once challenged in the closing stages to hold on by three-quarters of a length at the line. This colt is clearly thriving at present but another 6lb on his back should bring him a bit nearer to his rivals. He is also drawn in 2 which is out in the middle of the track but if he can overcome all of these obstacles, with the Johnston team in flying form I could not rule him out. Drawn alongside Midlander in stall 3 is Andrew Balding’s Kinematic who was not disgraced on his return to action at Sandown a couple of weeks ago. He took a strong grip early on in the hands of David Probert and it curtailed his finishing burst, as he finished fourth behind Seve. That run should have taken the freshness out of him and when you look at some of his juvenile form behind Bitter Lake, Ivawood and Charming Thought, it is quite possible that he is well-handicapped on a mark of 80. He does need to show more than he did on his return but he could run into a place for his royal connections. Roger Varian’s Maljaa will be having just his fifth start here and he was a little unlucky not to make all at Newmarket three weeks ago. He was taking on mostly elder rivals on that occasion and was collared close home by Richard Fahey’s Jan Van Hoof. He carried top weight that day and it is encouraging to see how the form of that race has worked out subsequently. Vimy Ridge (4th) has come out and won since and Top Boy (2nd) ran well to finish third behind Ridge Ranger on Tuesday. Given his lightly-raced profile there should be more to come and back against his own age-group he shouldn’t be too far away. However, I am going to take a chance on Roger Charlton’s JUDICIAL who was unbeaten on his final two starts as a two-year-old. He was subsequently awarded his debut victory as Strath Burn (who won a Group 3 for us a couple of weeks ago) tested positive for a banned substance. He made all on his last two outings and from stall 16 he should be able to get out quickly and secure the rail here. Roger Charlton runners in handicaps always need a second look and despite being off the track since last August, I would have thought he will be ready for this assignment. Richard Hughes has been given the leg up on him and I think he could be the one they all have to beat.

[richard-westwood]

530 good showstoppa 98.78 maljaa 98.68 midlander 98.65 major pusey 98.60 tough race .....showstoppa looks the one to be on here but isnt ideally drawn in 17 and looks to have work to do but he is steadily improving recording 98.71 and 98.78 last two runs .maljaa is unexposed and worthy of note at 13/2 .....but showstoppa is just too tempting ew at 8's..... showstoppa 5 pts ew 8/1 will hill

[richard-westwood]

530 good showstoppa 98.78 maljaa 98.68 midlander 98.65 major pusey 98.60 tough race .....showstoppa looks the one to be on here but isnt ideally drawn in 17 and looks to have work to do but he is steadily improving recording 98.71 and 98.78 last two runs .maljaa is unexposed and worthy of note at 13/2 .....but showstoppa is just too tempting ew at 8's..... showstoppa 5 pts ew 8/1 will hill

3rd .......maljaa 2nd ...close ...they are running well