Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby

[richard-westwood]

left it late as poss to do final ratings .......ill have a bash now . epsom derby golden horn 99.56 jack hobbs 99.31 giovanni canneletto 99.24 elm park 99.19 zawraq 99 19 epicuris 99.17 very difficult race to weigh up this year .....nothing really has sparkled and stamped its authority on the race but ratings suggest that the horse nearest to the average winner (100.12 ) is golden horn ....all the others are going to have to improve significantly 15/8 isnt a fantastic price now even though he will most likely win ...so the value most probably lies elsewhere ....of the others the value horse looks to be giovanni canneletto who has the scope and pedigree to be much better at 12f and has been heavily backed in recent days ..a good sign . the 8/1 with paddyp looks the value bet of the race ew now .....epicuris and elm park also have possibilitys of improving on previous runs but if golden horn improves as expected then he should be very hard to beat golden horn 10 pts win 15/8 will hill

[Custom Cut]

Re: flat racing sat 6th june epsom derby Completely agree Aidy, bar Golden Horn I think this one has the best form in the race, just a shame it comes on heavy. Condon did say at Leopardstown the last day that he is much better on soft (evidently didn't try to stop the owner splashing the cash though), but I think he only has to cope with the good to place and if he goes as well as on soft I genuinely think he has an outstanding chance. All the breeding people say he won't stay but having been going away at the line over 10 furlongs I think it's a bit silly to cling to the breeding when we have that evidence. Looked like there was plenty for Condon to work on with him too with his tendency to try and hang down the straight and hopefully he brings even more out of him. People have been dismissive of what he's beaten but the second last time, by 10 lengths, had beaten Hans Holbein by 6 lengths in his first start of the campaign on heavy ground and also was a half length off Diamondsandrubies and Pleascach in a listed race, form which has obviously worked out extremely well.