Jump Racing Stratford 29th May

[Darran]

5 hunter chases tonight and here are my thoughts 5.55 Out Of Range – Got given a good ride to win at Fontwell, but the soft ground brought his stamina into play that night and I doubt this will be a stiff enough test for him. It is also a much stronger contest. Baltic Blue – It wasn’t a great Restricted he won at Fakenham and he didn’t show much in a hunter chase at the same track earlier in the month. Carnglave Cat – Won three points at Kingston Blount, Parham and Peper Harow, they weren’t strong races but he won them easily. Ran he ran well to be 4th at Fontwell especially as the ground had gone against him, but not sure he is quite good enough for this. Cold Knight – I saw him finish 3rd at Woodford two starts back where he looked the winner until not staying and his win at Cottenham (a short track) suggests 3m stretches his stamina. He was a good 2nd to Drom at Southwell and he should stay the trip round here, although just wonder if something might outstay him. Dandan – He was a good 2nd to a horse called Fruit Fayre at Eyton-On-Seven last time and she is a very good mare in points. The horses in behind were useful as well especially in the context of this race. The crucial piece of form though is that he beat Cold Knight at Andoversford on his previous start by 6L and the time was quick. Dun Faw Good – He has really improved this season and is two from two in points winning a maiden and a restricted. He ran really well at Hexham last time when a close 3rd to Cave Hunter who won a fair race at Kelso on Sunday. The 4th home Newspage was 2nd at Cartmel on Monday as well so the form is fairly solid. Has a good chance. Flash Garden – Two from two so far having won a maiden at Overton over 2m4f and then a restricted at Tranwell. Won comfortably both times and obviously has scope for improvement, but the form isn’t overly strong and this could be a tough ask on just his third start. Flicka’s Witness – Won twice this season, a maiden and a restricted, but the latter was a weak three runner race at Kimble. Its All Or Nothing – Won his last two and won his restricted well in a quick time. The concern is this track and trip might be a bit sharp for him, but he is improving. Merrydown Vintage – Won his maiden by 30L although it was a weak affair as were the two races he won the last twice. Will likely make the running but needs to improve again. Ruddy Article – Was beaten by His Excellency (runs later on the card) last time at Chaddesley Corbett and probably no disgrace about that. Time before I saw him win at the same venue over 3m2f and he beat a useful field that day. He has really improved this season. That win in April is the best form in this race, but the slight worry is he might get outpaced around here. Wak A Turtle – Not achieved an awful lot in his three wins and got a bit to find. Dabinett Moon – Was seven seconds quicker than Merrydown Vintage when both won at Kingston Blount last time. Has had a good season, but did pull up behind Dandan earlier in the campaign. Been better since though and can go well. Summary – Dabinett Moon and Its All Or Nothing have chances at bigger prices, but the four to concentrate on look to be Cold Knight, Dandan, Dun Faw Good and Ruddy Article. Dandan has beaten Cold Knight already this season and given he is a bigger price than him he has to be backed. The main bet though is going to be Ruddy Article. I do have slight reservations about the trip, but he has the best jockey on top and he has the best pointing form in the race. I may also just cover Dun Faw Good as the form of that Hexham win looks decent. Tip – Ruddy Article Alternative – Dandan e/w 6.55 Blackwood River – No chance Blinding Lights – No chance Connies Cross – Great run at Cheltenham to finish a close 3rd to Major Malarkey, but got to find more to win this and looks yard second string. Empire Builder – Had a great season and ran really well at Cheltenham when 3rd to Mr Mercurial, but jockey can’t claim here which is a big negative and I can’t see how he can reverse the form. Following Dreams – He has had a fantastic season. He started off by just getting up to beat Mr Mercurial over a trip too short for him at Leicester. He topped that by finishing second in the Cheltenham Foxhunter. He then refused at the first in a point and after that was 2nd to Harbour Court at Cheltenham last time. I was a little disappointed by that effort, but the winner was able to dictate his own pace that night and I think Following Dreams was just caught for a turn of foot. He was a good 3rd in this last year and should go close again. Indiana Bay – Another horse who has been in front of Mr Mercurial this season when he was 10L in front of him here in March. He finally got a deserved hunter chase win at Newton Abbot last time when he hacked up, but it wasn’t much of a contest. He stays well and is a good horse, but I just don’t think he is quite up to wining this. Lord Fingal – This horse running makes this race a bit trickier than I thought it would be because he brings Irish form to the table. I have to hold my hand up here and say I don’t follow the Irish hunter chase scene anywhere near as closely as the British so he is the trickiest horse of the evening for me to weigh up. I also have to try and compare Irish and British hunter chase form, and whilst at the top level the Irish clearly hold an advantage, he hasn’t been running in strong hunter chases. I have gone back and watched his three wins and visually he is impressive, jumping well on the main and probably just idling a bit in front as he thinks he has done enough. Going through the form of the horses he has beaten though he hasn’t beaten an awful lot and on Racing Post ratings he does have a bit to find. He also is unproven at the trip although I get the feeling he will probably be fine around here. The trainer has to be respected as well especially as he said after his last win at Down Royal that he was going to give him a break and maybe send him handicapping, so the fact he is running here clearly means the trainer thinks he can win. The fact he has idled in the finish of his races also means it is hard to tell how much he has left in the tank. Mr Mercurial – Has been called all sorts of names this season after being caught by Following Dreams at Leicester and Legal Legend at Towcester when looking like he was going to win both races. I think the well beaten 3rd here in March was down to the fact he had a hard race just a few days before and Bound For Glory set such a strong pace, he just couldn’t get involved. After Towcester it was clear the horse just needed waiting with and delivering as late as possible and Paddy Gerety got the tactics spot on at Southwell when he finally won his first hunter chase. He then went to the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham and it was a great sight seeing James Tudor and Paddy Gerety both sat motionless as they turned for home. Again Paddy timed his challenge spot on and he powered on up the Cheltenham hill to win going away in really impressive style. The 2nd Repeat Business had looked very good in points so I think the form is rock solid. He will handle any ground and we know he stays well. If Paddy can get the tactics spot on again I think he is the one to beat. Moscow Blaze – No chance Star Of Massini – Ran well at Fontwell given the ground had gone against him and he had only run in one race prior to that and a weak one at that. Would be surprised if he was up to this though. Wayupinthesky – It could be interesting if this horse and Mr Mercurial are fighting out the finish as he also needs delivering as late as possible and Harry Bannister has been superb on him the last twice in wins at Kelso and Perth. He stays well and although the bare form of those wins is a little below a couple of these, he is probably better than that and I certainly wouldn’t rule him out of hitting the frame. Tandori – No chance Summary – This is nearly always a quality race and this year’s renewal is no exception. Like I say Lord Fingal could be the fly in the ointment because I know the British form much better, but I think on balance he has a bit to find and he is going to have to be very good to win this. He might well be, but I am going to take him on with Mr Mercurial. He was so impressive at Cheltenham last time and as soon as he won that I thought we had seen the John Corbett winner. Interestingly the 2nd home Repeat Business was entered in this, but I would imagine they thought they couldn’t beat Mr Mercurial so have skipped the race. He looks like he could be up to Foxhunter class next season. Following Dreams has already proven he is and I think he is certainly worth having a saver on as he will go close again. Wayupinthesky and Indiana Bay are others to consider in a top class race. Tip – Mr Mercurial Alternative – Following Dreams 7.25 Current Event – Thankfully connections have decided against running him in the back race over a trip which would have been too far for him. He ran no sort of race in the Cheltenham Foxhunter because he didn’t stay and it would have been interesting to have seen how he would have got on at Aintree given the trip was more suitable and he got hampered and unseated there. He has been really impressive over a more suitable trip at Cheltenham and then last week at Newton Abbot when winning the only handicap hunter chase of the season off a big weight and beating King Of Alcatraz who runs later on. Those two wins proves he still has plenty of class and the other plus of him running in this contest is his jockey can use her claim. His Excellency – Formally a good horse for David Pipe and won at Perth off 137 last July. He made his debut for connections at Garthorpe in March and he was way too keen and burnt himself out by tearing off up front. He ran just four days later at Towcester and not surprisingly never looked like winning when only 3rd to Penmore Mill. He got a break after that and returned 19 days ago to win at Chaddesley Corbett beating Ruddy Article who might boost the form in the opener. He had the tongue-tie back on that day and that might well have helped him. Will need to run better again to win this, but might be capable of doing so. Bound For Glory – Given a great front running ride when hammering a good field here in March over 2m4f as he had three horses in behind who went on to win hunter chases. He then ran a cracker at Aintree to finish 5th to On The Fringe. The concern here is if he can hold on over this 3f further trip, but I can see him giving it a good go from the front again. Academy General – No chance. Berties Dream – Had a great couple of years pointing, but he didn’t enjoy Rules fences in last year’s Foxhunter and although Stratford’s fences aren’t as big, it is a tough jumping test and that has to be a big concern here. Invisible Man – Had a frustrating season as he had to be pulled up sharply two out at Ludlow when in with a chance, but he was back to his best last time when bolting up at Woodford last month. Good 2nd at Cheltenham last April and has e/w claims here. Truflyingcolours – Won a couple of Ladies Opens the last twice, but a fair way below the level required to win this. What A Laugh – Completed a three timer when landing the Lady Dudley Cup at Chaddlesley Corbett last month. This tricky ride was given a good ride that day as he took advantage of a slow gallop. Their certainly won’t be a slow gallop here and that probably will help him, but he was nearly 2L behind Invisible Man at Cheltenham last year and his hunter chase form suggests he has a bit to find. Summary – It has to be Current Event here. He will be a short price favourite, but he has looked all class the last twice and if in the same form he will be hard to beat. Invisible Man has e/w claims and His Excellency has a chance if he is back to somewhere near his best. The main danger for me though is Bound For Glory. That Stratford win was one of the best performances in a hunter chase this season and he is capable of holding on for 2nd place, although I suspect Current Event will pick him off in the home straight. Tip Current Event Alternative Bound For Glory e/w 8.00 Divine Intavention – Looked a bit laboured at Wincanton when 3rd and although this step back up in trip will suit, he wouldn’t have been good enough at his peak to win this, so can’t see it now. Findlay’s Find – Step up in trip from Newton Abbot will suit, but won’t be good enough. Lets Get Serious – No idea where his Fontwell performance came from and it will be an even bigger shock if he were to win this much better race. Major Malarkey – Was given the ride of the season by Harry Bannister at Cheltenham last time, where he didn’t look like he was ever going to win until about ten yards from the line. He has a touch of class, but he will surely get put-paced at this trip round here and I would only give him an e/w chance were they to get a lot of rain. Moroman – Classy and improving horse and the fact Gina Andrews is on top for the first time is a plus. The problem is he jumps out to his right as he showed at Fakenham and Cheltenham last time. The other issue is Quinz beat him fair and square that night and although the jockey change might mean he reverses the form, given Quinz has loads to find with the Paint The Clouds it is hard to see how he will be good enough to win. Pacha Du Polder – Clearly still retains plenty of class based on his three hunter chase runs this season. First of all he was a good second to Teaforthree at Bangor, he then bolted up at Ludlow and then ran a cracker at Aintree to finish 2nd to On The Fringe. The problem is he doesn’t look like a horse who wants to go this far and he isn’t even proven over 3m. There is a case for saying he is the best horse in the race and if he stayed he would probably win, but I don’t think he will stay. Paint The Clouds – Won this with ease last season which made him the best hunter chaser this side of the Irish Sea. He returned this season to beat Quinz 10L at Doncaster and he was carrying 1st1lb more than him that day. Tonight they will be racing off level weights and Quinz had already run a couple of times prior to that run. Given he wouldn’t have enjoyed the soft ground at Cheltenham he ran a cracker to finish 3rd to On The Fringe. He then put in another superb effort in the Bet365 Gold Cup to finish 4th off a mark of 137. In this field the only other horse I can see running as well in a handicap of that sort of mark is Pacha Du Polder. I was initially worried that if they got rain that it would harm his chances, but then he was still able to run to a high mark when 3rd in soft ground at Cheltenham and a repeat of that should be good enough. Pentiffic – A right monkey and well behind Major Malarkey last time. Quinz – Did really well to beat Moroman at Cheltenham, but on Doncaster form he has loads to find with Paint The Clouds. Sir Du Bearn – It was a shame he had to miss Fontwell as I think he might have won that night. He was lame after Kelso which is why he pulled up that day and otherwise he has had a pretty good season. Pretty hard to see him winning this, but think he might well out run his odds. Temple Grandin – A horse I like a lot, but it is a shame to see him put into such a hot race again as he just isn’t quite up to it at the moment. Made a really bad mistake at a crucial time at Cheltenham behind Quinz and Moroman, but still has plenty to find even with them on that form. Twirling Magnet – Won well at Ludlow and Newbury, but put in his place at Aintree when well behind Pacha Du Polder. Should enjoy this stiffer test at least. Chosen Milan – Was a good 2nd in the John Corbett Cup last year. Really good fifth at Cheltenham and then fell at Aintree. I thought she was a little below form even though she won at Cheltenham last time, but she has had a month off to freshen up and that should help. Place claims. Summary – Barring something strange happening I just can’t see how Paint The Clouds can possibly lose. Through any form line you use he has every single horse in this race beaten, bar Pacha Du Polder. I really don’t think Pacha Du Polder will stay and it seems they are running him in the race because they may as well as there is nothing else to run him in at the moment so they may as well. If it got soft enough to bring stamina into play then I would back Major Malarkey e/w, otherwise Chosen Milan might be the one to chase him home. Tip – Paint The Clouds NAP 8.30 Can Mestret – Apparently he was found to have a virus after he disappointed at Fakenham over Easter and if you take that and the fall he suffered here in March out then he has looked progressive this season. The problem is he beat little at Fakenham when he won and he beat even less when he won at Fontwell last time. Including jockey claims he has a fair bit of weight to give away to his other main rivals as well which isn’t going to help. Bay To Go – Third in this last year, but been awful since. Parkam Jack – Thought it was a good win at Wincanton last time and he was a little unlucky when Tugboat caught him late on here last month. Been in pretty good form all season and should go well here, but not sure a trip this short is quite what he wants. Samtheman – Well behind Can Mestret last time and better ground shouldn’t help much either. Shrewd Investment – Multiple hunter chase winner but been in awful form this season. Swallows Delight – Hunter chase regular and hunter chase regular loser. Tataniano – Formerly top class chaser although had been on the downgrade. Had over a year off and returned in an Exeter hunter chase where he ran with great credit until a lack of a recent run told late on and he finished third. Showed the benefit for the run when hammering Merrion Square by a very easy 10L. I was really impressed with that and his jumping was superb. Has won on soft so rain shouldn’t be too much of an issue and he clearly retains enough ability to be winning races like this. Catch Tammy – No chance Joker Choker- Was in contention for a place when falling at the last in this race last year, but been poor so far this season. King Of Alcatraz – Wouldn’t want to see too much rain, but ran really well even allowing for the fact he was getting plenty of weight from the winner at Newton Abbot on his first run for over a year. A horse I have a lot of time for and his Cheltenham 4th last season is fair form as well. Has place claims. Nishay – No chance. Oranger – No chance. Orang Outan – Was stuffed at Cheltenham last time, but his last three point runs weren’t that bad. Jockey change is a huge plus as is the drop in trip. The problem is although I can see him out running his odds I doubt there will be a market to have a few quid on at a lumpy price as I can’t see him finishing in the first three. Might be worth a small e/w bet if there is a betting without the front two market. Posh Trip – No chance. Silver Story – Won two hunter chases in 2012 and looked a very good horse back then. Clearly had plenty of issues since though as he has barely run since then. Pulled up on his only start this season and that was over 100 days ago. Not even sure he wants this trip. Torn Asunder – Is a complete dog who didn’t want to win in Ireland and hasn’t wanted to win in either hunter chases or points over here. He has however managed to win a charity race at Tabley recently. Maybe that will flick a switch and he will suddenly want to win and maybe he wants 2m, but I can’t be backing him. Woodlark Island – No chance. Maid Of Silk – No chance. Summary – There might be 18 runners, but most of them wouldn’t win this if they started at the off time for the first race! Tataniano is more than likely to be out in front and out of trouble which will be crucial here. He looked like he retained plenty of class at Kempton last time and I suspect this race has been the target since. Can Mestret is a danger, but he hasn’t faced a horse anywhere near as good as Tataniano and I am not sure he is up to beating him. King Of Alcatraz rates the e/w play as long as they don’t get too much rain and if they did they would probably take him out like they did at Fontwell anyway. Tip Tataniano NB Alternative – King Of Alcatraz e/w

[BillyHills]

Re: Jump Racing Stratford 29th May Nice one Addpea:ok