AFL Rd. 7.

[TazaD]

12-8' (+2.99) Adelaide +17.5 i) I don't think Melbourne's loss to Freo last week was the 'exception' people are saying. A win over Essendon is nothing, and 3 wins over Bulldogs, Geelong and Sydney all masked horrible defensive performances. (These teams kicked 30.57 b/w them!)...They have allowed 25+ shots at goal in every game since Rd. 2. ii) The Crows are the real thing. iii) After a slow start they are scoring very well, scoring 124, 120, 109 and 74, but against a very good defensive team in wet, slipery conditions. iv) The Crows defense has been very good. They have allowed the 3rd least shots at goal this season, and allow a score every 2.27 entries into the 50, which is the best. The Crows have won the last 3 meetings, and the last 2 meetings at the MCG, both as underdogs. I really think the Crows will win this game, but will take the points to be safe. Doggies +39.5 Massive over-reaction here!! Yoiu're only as good as your last game?..ah, no! So Brisbane are 'back' after a big win over Essendon? I'm not so convinced. The Doggies have had 47 more inside 50's and 28 more shots at goal, and allowed only 6 less goals. Of course Brown back helps them no end, but he won't be playing on Ty Zantuck this week! The Bulldogs lost in Brisbane by 68 points last year, but it was 2nd v. 14th and a total mismatch. The Lion's forward line had Lynch, Brown, Bradshaw and Pike all firing, and the Bulldogs were without Harris. Lynch gone, Pike struggling, Bradshaw ?, but struggling anyway. Also the loss of Darcy won't hurt as much in this game, as Hawthorn showed it was certainly possible (easier even!) to kick a big score with a small forward line. I honestly don't think the Bullies are without a show here. Love getting nearly 7 goals!

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 7. Essendon+21.5 Just find it impossible for Sydney to give this many points. They average 77 points a game! As badly as Essendon have been traveling, they have 23 more inside 50's than the Swans, are slightly better at the clearances and their backline has been tighter. The Bombers lost by 20 points in the same meeting last year, but had 5 more inside 50's and 5 more shots, but kicked 12.18. Hird and Solomon are out, but Bradley is in and McPhee (he played last year but was injured very early)...But more importantly Ball, Dolyle, Williams out for Sydney, and Hall in nowhere near the form he was last year. Again, most people are just remembering last week's results, but Sydney don't have a Jonathon Brown in their line-up!

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 7. Melbourne v. Adelaide 0.74 units OVER 201.5 (2.35) 0.26 units 182-201 (3.90) [Will give money back] Rather than taking the Crows to kick the highest score, I'll go this way. The last 3 meetings have all topped 200, and none of the last 4 meetings @ the MCG have gone under 182. Melbourne have kicked at least 94 points in eavery game this year @ 116, Crows have av. 102 ppg over their last 5. Melbourne's defense has already been discussed! Fine, calm night in Melborne. Also interesting to note that all the Friday night games have been reasonably high scoring, so maybe the big stage makes for a more open game.

[-Loki-]

Re: AFL Rd. 7. Like the over in the Melbourne v Adelaide game Taza. You might also be interested to know that Neil Craig has said he wants the Crows to play more attacking football and try to match Melbourne in that department.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 7. They sure did pick a terrible time to kick their lowest score v. Melbourne ever, Loki!! Terrible game. Bad skills and lots of fumbling. Very hard to believe that Melbourne covered the spread after never being close until the last 5 minutes. Fremantle v. Collingwood 0.74 units under 171.5 (2.35) 0.26 units 172-191 (3.90) [Will give money back] The last 4 meetings have been 179 (Subi), 142 (Dome), 157 (MCG), 169 (Subi). In 6 games this season, Collingwood have topped 192 only twice, but against the Bulldogs and Carlton, 2 bad defensive teams. they have scored over 90 themselves only once, and average 85.5 ppg. Freo av. 87 ppg this season, but the last two have been against 2 bad defensive teams (Carlton, Melbourne). 4 of their games have gone under 172 and only 1 over 192. 3 of Freo's last 5 @ home have gone under 172 and none over 192. Collingwood's last 6 @ Subi (since 1996!) have been 177, 172, 209 (as big favs), 169, 170, 179. Looks to be a bit of wind about over west, so it's hard to see too much scoring in this one.