Developing a betting strategy based on injuries/suspensions. Anyone tried it?

[allen29]

Hello there, I have a curiosity. Whoscored has in their "Preview" page of a game a variable called "Probable Lineups Statistical Comparison". This translates into: Of the predicted lineup for each team, out of the total goals and assists made by that team, how many were made by the players that are expected to be on the pitch"? For example, there is a game tonight between Almeria and Real Sociedad. From the whoscored probable lineup for Almeria, the goals made by the expected team to be on the pitch were 13/19 and for assists is 9/14. For Real Sociedad is as follows: Goals: 9/20, Assists:9/16. A lot of this numbers is due to missing Carlos Vela who has 7 goals and 2 assits. I am curious if this could be a useful variable for the betting decision. If you find a team that misses some of their crucial players, in theory, that should have an impact on the game, mainly on their ability to score. But do bookies adjust their prices to account for this factor? If yes, do they adjust them accordingly? For answering these questions I am intending to monitor some games that have low scores for "Probable Lineups Statistical Comparison" and see if this translates into weaker performances, but more important, if the prices (odds) are adjusted for this effect. The major problem is that you can't mine historical data because, if you go to the match in the first round for example, you will see in the preview page of that game the "Probable Lineups Statistical Comparison" based on the today's numbers, so that doesn't help much. So, forward mining and monitoring is required. If anyone wants to join and make this a project, this would be wonderful. I am also interested in hearing from people who also tried to account for this factors (missing players due to injuries/cards/coach decision) into their betting decision and what were their conclusions?

[Vilamoura04]

Re: Developing a betting strategy based on injuries/suspensions. Anyone tried it? In the big leagues, eg Premier League, it is often opined that punters over adjust for missing key players. What you really need to know is how much the prices change for the missing player(s). Only real way of knowing this is seeing if there is a change in the odds when the missing player information becomes publically known...a lot of work. You can also sometimes see odds change before the announcement as "in the know" persons get on.