allen29 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hello there, I have a curiosity. Whoscored has in their "Preview" page of a game a variable called "Probable Lineups Statistical Comparison". This translates into: Of the predicted lineup for each team, out of the total goals and assists made by that team, how many were made by the players that are expected to be on the pitch"? For example, there is a game tonight between Almeria and Real Sociedad. From the whoscored probable lineup for Almeria, the goals made by the expected team to be on the pitch were 13/19 and for assists is 9/14. For Real Sociedad is as follows: Goals: 9/20, Assists:9/16. A lot of this numbers is due to missing Carlos Vela who has 7 goals and 2 assits. I am curious if this could be a useful variable for the betting decision. If you find a team that misses some of their crucial players, in theory, that should have an impact on the game, mainly on their ability to score. But do bookies adjust their prices to account for this factor? If yes, do they adjust them accordingly? For answering these questions I am intending to monitor some games that have low scores for "Probable Lineups Statistical Comparison" and see if this translates into weaker performances, but more important, if the prices (odds) are adjusted for this effect. The major problem is that you can't mine historical data because, if you go to the match in the first round for example, you will see in the preview page of that game the "Probable Lineups Statistical Comparison" based on the today's numbers, so that doesn't help much. So, forward mining and monitoring is required. If anyone wants to join and make this a project, this would be wonderful. I am also interested in hearing from people who also tried to account for this factors (missing players due to injuries/cards/coach decision) into their betting decision and what were their conclusions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Re: Developing a betting strategy based on injuries/suspensions. Anyone tried it? In the big leagues, eg Premier League, it is often opined that punters over adjust for missing key players. What you really need to know is how much the prices change for the missing player(s). Only real way of knowing this is seeing if there is a change in the odds when the missing player information becomes publically known...a lot of work. You can also sometimes see odds change before the announcement as "in the know" persons get on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allen29 Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Re: Developing a betting strategy based on injuries/suspensions. Anyone tried it? But prices are also adjusted by supply and demand in a considerable portion. And also it is not that easy to value the impact of one or some missing players. From whoscored,for example, you can know that a players has made X assists and X goals out of the total goals/assists. But what if they're missing a central defender or defensive mid? This is harder to value. I know that goalimpact tries to measure the contribution of each individual player to the team's overall performance, so this could be useful. Also, squawka has individual scores for each player for their defensive, offensive, and possesion performance i think. @Vilamoura04: But what about the smaller leagues? My guess is that a lot of people do not check this information, both because it is harder to get, but also because they rely mostly on the stats (and mainly the basic rather than "more sophisticated ones" since those are not widely available, or not at all, at least for free). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernest1234 Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Especially in hockey if one or even two 'hot' player is missing, it really doesn't matter anything if the team is average or above average; because those who replace those super players are often playing 200% of what they got in order to get more time on the ice. But if the team is lower average or under average, just one 'hot' player missing could mean that all hell breaks loose. I have seen this in football, too. That's why it has been in my tactics to still always bet above average teams now matter if Crosby is playing or not, but unfortunately bookies have caught this too, so they don't raise odds so dramatically any more (unless it's a under average team) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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