Draw No Bet Strategy

[bawsak]

Not sure if anyone has tried something similar to this before. I am going to look to find DNB value where the DNB odds are slightly out of sync with the match odds. Quite often they are out of sync by a few points which means there is value to be had either in the 1x2 or in the DNB market (it tends to be only 0-3% edge but Im going to look long term and see if it turns a profit) . For this experiment (and it is only that just now) I will presume the bookies have accurately priced up the 1x2 so the value lies with DNB. Lost? I will try and clarify. Lets take an eg Home 2.00 Draw 4.00 Away 4.00 (I know the draw would normally be under 4.00 and away over but Im keeping the maths simple) Over 100 games should be 50H, 25X, 25A, take away the 25X, we are left with 75 games, 50H and 25H. The DNB odds should reflect this and be 1.50 H, 3.00 A, therefore anything above those odds represents value. I am going level stakes anything under 3.00 and half stakes 3.00 and above.

[bawsak]

Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Tomorrow's picks (team backed underlined) MK Dons v Sheff Utd: 4/9 AFC Wimbledon v Carlisle: 3/5 Northampton v Dag & Red: 11/4 (0.5 stake) Australiav S.Korea: 1/2 Oman v Kuwait: 11/8