bawsak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Not sure if anyone has tried something similar to this before. I am going to look to find DNB value where the DNB odds are slightly out of sync with the match odds. Quite often they are out of sync by a few points which means there is value to be had either in the 1x2 or in the DNB market (it tends to be only 0-3% edge but Im going to look long term and see if it turns a profit) . For this experiment (and it is only that just now) I will presume the bookies have accurately priced up the 1x2 so the value lies with DNB. Lost? I will try and clarify. Lets take an eg Home 2.00 Draw 4.00 Away 4.00 (I know the draw would normally be under 4.00 and away over but Im keeping the maths simple) Over 100 games should be 50H, 25X, 25A, take away the 25X, we are left with 75 games, 50H and 25H. The DNB odds should reflect this and be 1.50 H, 3.00 A, therefore anything above those odds represents value. I am going level stakes anything under 3.00 and half stakes 3.00 and above. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Tomorrow's picks (team backed underlined) MK Dons v Sheff Utd: 4/9 AFC Wimbledon v Carlisle: 3/5 Northampton v Dag & Red: 11/4 (0.5 stake) Australiav S.Korea: 1/2 Oman v Kuwait: 11/8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Altrincham 19/20 Falkirk 3/4 Dunfermline 1/2 Spezia 1/3 Ternana 4/6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Good luck wih this one mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Cheers mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Tomorrow's picks (team backed underlined) MK Dons v Sheff Utd: 4/9 (Win +0.44) AFC Wimbledon v Carlisle: 3/5 (Loss -1) Northampton v Dag & Red: 11/4 (0.5 stake) (Loss -0.5) Australiav S.Korea: 1/2 (Loss -1) Oman v Kuwait: 11/8 (Loss -1) Total: 1W, 4L = -3.06 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Altrincham 19/20 (Win +0.95) Falkirk 3/4 (PUSH) Dunfermline 1/2 (PUSH) Spezia 1/3 (PUSH) Ternana 4/6 (Win +0.67) 2 wins, 0 losses = +1.62 Running total 3W, 3D, 4L = -1.42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy 2 wins, 0 losses = +1.62 Running total 3W, 3D, 4L = -1.44 Apologies Total= -1.42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Apologies Total= -1.44 Sorry about this. Cant work out how to edit / delete. Running total -1.44 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Sunday Picks Feyenoord v Twente: 4/11 Chievo v Fiorentina : 10/21 Sevilla v Malaga: 3/1 (0.5 stake) Llagostra v Valladolid: 1/2 Mallorca v Mirandes: 21/10 (0.5 stake) Tenerife v Numancia: 8/13 Alcocron v Ponferradina: 8/15 China v North Korea: 4/11 Uzbekistan v Saudi Arabia: evens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy one more for 3.45kick off dutch league Heracles v Excelsior: 4/11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy one more for 3.45kick off dutch league Heracles v Excelsior: 4/11 (Loss -1) Running Total 3W, 3D, 5L = -2.44 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Sunday Picks Feyenoord v Twente: 4/11 (W +0.36) Chievo v Fiorentina : 10/21 (W +0.48) Sevilla v Malaga: 3/1 (0.5 stake) (L -0.5) Llagostra v Valladolid: 1/2 (L -1) Mallorca v Mirandes: 21/10 (0.5 stake) (L -0.5) Tenerife v Numancia: 8/13 (PUSH) Alcocron v Ponferradina: 8/15 (PUSH) China v North Korea: 4/11 (W +0.36) Uzbekistan v Saudi Arabia: evens (W +1) W4, X2, L3 = +0.2 Running Total W7, X5, L8 = -2.24 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Monday Picks Sweden v Finland: 4/7 Iran v UAE: 1/2 South Africa v Algeria: 2/5 Nancy v Orleans: 2/5 Bologna v Perugia: 1/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Monday Picks Sweden v Finland: 4/7 (L -1) Iran v UAE: 1/2 (W +0.5) South Africa v Algeria: 2/5 (W +0.4) Nancy v Orleans: 2/5 (PUSH) Bologna v Perugia: 1/2 (W +0.5 3W, 1X, 1L = +0.4 Running Total 10W, 6X, 9L = -1.84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Tuesday Picks Ivory Coast v Guinea: 1/4 Middlesbrough v Cardiff: 3/10 Doncaster v Notts County: 2/5 Inverness v St Johnstone: 1/2 Nantes v Lyon: 8/11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Tuesday Picks Ivory Coast v Guinea: 1/4 (PUSH) Middlesbrough v Cardiff: 3/10 (W +0.3) Doncaster v Notts County: 2/5 (PUSH) Inverness v St Johnstone: 1/2 (W +0.5) Nantes v Lyon: 8/11 (L -1) W2, X2, 1L = -0.2 Total W12, X8, L10 = -2.04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Wednesday picks Gabon v Congo: 4/9 Monaco v Evian: 2/11 Bressuire v Le Poire Sur Vie: 1/4 PSG v Bordeaux: 2/11 Gil Vicente v Maritimo: 9/20 St Mirren v Dundee Utd: 2/5 Villarreal v Getafe: 1/5 Barcelona v Ath Madrid: 1/4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Thursday Picks Zambia v Tunisia: 2/1 (0.5 stake) South Korea v Uzbekistan: 4/9 China v Australia: 1/4 Rennes v Riems: 4/11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Wednesday picks Gabon v Congo: 4/9 (L -1) Monaco v Evian: 2/11 (W +0.18) Bressuire v Le Poire Sur Vie: 1/4 (PUSH) PSG v Bordeaux: 2/11 (W +0.18) Gil Vicente v Maritimo: 9/20 (W +0.45) St Mirren v Dundee Utd: 2/5 (PUSH) Villarreal v Getafe: 1/5 (W +0.2) Barcelona v Ath Madrid: 1/4 (W +0.25) W5, X2, L1 = +0.26 Total W17 X10, L11 = -1.78 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Thursday Picks Zambia v Tunisia: 2/1 (0.5 stake) (L -0.5) South Korea v Uzbekistan: 4/9 (W +0.44) China v Australia: 1/4 (W +0.25) Rennes v Riems: 4/11 (PUSH) W2, X1, L1 = +0.19 Total W19, X11, L12 = -1.59 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Friday Picks Iran v Iraq: 3/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Saturday Picks Troyes v Sochaux: 4/11 Clermont v Chateauroux: 1/3 Norwich v Brentford: 1/3 MK Dons v Barnsley: 2/9 Mansfield v Wycombe: 4/6 Hamilton v Inverness: evens Preston v Sheff Utd: 6/10 Bury v Carlisle: 1/3 Kilmarnock v Partick Th: 20/19 Lazio v AC Milan: 17/40 Cameroon v Guinea: 9/4 (0.5 stake) Montrose v Albion Rovers: 1/2 Woluwe Zaventem v Lommel Utd: 2/9 Kortrijk v Charleroi: 8/15 Valenciennes v Tours: 8/15 Avellino v Cittadella: 2/7 Entella v Bolonga: 8/15 Frosinone v Spezia: 4/7 Livorno v Brescia: 1/2 Pescara v Ternana: 4/9 Alaves v Leganes: 4/6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Friday Pick Den Bosch v Volendam: 19/20 St Johnstone v Aberdeen: 10/29 South Africa v Senegal: 4/9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Friday Picks Iran v Iraq: 3/10 (PUSH) Total 19W, 12X, 12L = -1.59 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Friday Pick Den Bosch v Volendam: 19/20 (L -1) St Johnstone v Aberdeen: 10/29 (PUSH) South Africa v Senegal: 4/9 (PUSH) 0W, 2X, 1L = -1 Total 19W, 14X, 13L = -2.59 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Saturday Picks Troyes v Sochaux: 4/11 (W +0.36) Clermont v Chateauroux: 1/3 (PUSH) Norwich v Brentford: 1/3 (L -1) MK Dons v Barnsley: 2/9 (W +0.22) Mansfield v Wycombe: 4/6 (PUSH) Hamilton v Inverness: evens (W +1) Preston v Sheff Utd: 6/10 (PUSH) Bury v Carlisle: 1/3 (W +0.33) Kilmarnock v Partick Th: 20/19 (PUSH) Lazio v AC Milan: 17/40 (W +0.43) Cameroon v Guinea: 9/4 (0.5 stake) (PUSH) Montrose v Albion Rovers: 1/2 (W +0.5) Woluwe Zaventem v Lommel Utd: 2/9 (W +0.22) Kortrijk v Charleroi: 8/15 (PUSH) Valenciennes v Tours: 8/15 (L -1) Avellino v Cittadella: 2/7 (L -1) Entella v Bolonga: 8/15 (W +0.53) Frosinone v Spezia: 4/7 (PUSH) Livorno v Brescia: 1/2 (W +0.5) Pescara v Ternana: 4/9 (L -1) Alaves v Leganes: 4/6 (W +0.67) 10W, 7X, 4L = +0.76 Total 29W 21X 17L = -1.83 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Sunday Picks Evian TG v Toulouse: 4/5 Reims v Lens: 7/10 Juventus v Chievo: 1/25 (my system calculated 1/26 so slight value!!!) Brighton v Arsenal: 5/23 Moreirense v Nacional: 7/10 Setabul v Rio Ave: 4/5 Uniao Madeira v Beira Mar: 2/9 Santander v Girona: 4/6 Karabukspor v Erciyesspor: 4/9 Sparta Rotterdam v Jong Ajax: 9/20 Parma v Cesena: (0.5 stake) 17/4 Espanyol v Almeria: 2/7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Sunday Picks Evian TG v Toulouse: 4/5 (W +0.8) Reims v Lens: 7/10 (X) Juventus v Chievo: 1/25 (W +0.04) Brighton v Arsenal: 5/23 (W +0.22) Moreirense v Nacional: 7/10 (L -1) Setabul v Rio Ave: 4/5 (L -1) Uniao Madeira v Beira Mar: 2/9 (X) Santander v Girona: 4/6 (W +0.67) Karabukspor v Erciyesspor: 4/9 (L -1) Sparta Rotterdam v Jong Ajax: 9/20 (W +0.45) Parma v Cesena: (0.5 stake) 17/4 (W +2.13) Espanyol v Almeria: 2/7 (W +0.29) W7 X2 L3 = +1.6 Total = W36 X23 L20 = -0.23 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Monday Picks Getafe v Celta Vigo: 3/4 Cape Verde v Zambia: 19/20 Rochdale v Stoke: 2/7 Jong PSV v Jong FC Twente: 2/5 Genclerbirligi v Besiktas: 4/7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.32384c3055cbc1254b0eb6212fda1359.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.