MPLouis Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 (edited) Having some time-consuming and currently loss-making 'systems' on here already, I'm reluctant to start another one. But I've followed 'Lawro''s BBC predictions for some time now and noticed that they are not bad and can sometimes flag up some value. So this system will be to look at Lawro's Premier League Predictions on the BBC website each weekend and see if there is any value on the Asian Handicap market backing one team against another. I'm not interested in margins of victory or goals, but more in teams. For example, if Lawro is predicting a draw and one team is 2.0 and other 5.0, I would oppose the short-priced team - the bet would be something like Team B +0.5 @ 1.9. Hopefully this won't take too much time. I tend to look through Lawro's weekend predictions every Friday anyway, so it shouldn't be too much work, and I like the enforced discipline that doing this regularly brings. I think the predictions will tend to produce an average of one or two selections per week. Starting bank: 100 points All bets level stake 2 points until further notice Edited December 7, 2015 by MPLouis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted November 28, 2014 Author Share Posted November 28, 2014 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions Sat 29th/Sun 30th Nov There are ten Premier League games this weekend, and Lawro's predictions produce THREE value selections: Saturday Swansea v C Palace Best home/away odds: 1.87/5.2 Lawro prediction: 1-1 Bet Palace +0.5 2.16 188Bet Saturday West Ham v Newcastle Best home/away odds: 2.25/3.76 Lawro prediction: 1-1 Bet Newcastle +0.5 1.8 BetVictor Sunday Tottenham v Everton Best home/away odds: 2.42/3.38 Lawro prediction: 1-1 Bet Everton +0.25 1.98 Bet365 THREE bets at 2 points each = 6 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted November 29, 2014 Author Share Posted November 29, 2014 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions For reference, Lawro's Predictions are normally in the Premier League section of the BBC website: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/premier-league/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted November 30, 2014 Author Share Posted November 30, 2014 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions Results: Swansea 1 C Palace 1 Won, returns 4.32 West Ham 1 Newcastle 0 Lost Tottenham 2 Everton 1 Lost Total stake: 6 points Total return: 4.32 points Profit/loss = -1.68 points Bank now 98.32 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions Tues 2nd Dec/Weds 3rd Dec A full midweek programme of ten Premier League games this week, and analysing Lawro's predictions versus the 2-way odds produce TWO team value selections on Burnley and Aston Villa - Burnley v Newcastle Best home/away odds 2.96/2.75 Lawro's prediction: 2-1 Best 2-way bet: Burnley AH0 2.1 Marathon C Palace v Aston Villa Best home/away odds 2.15/4.1 Lawro's prediction: 1-2 Best 2-way bet: Villa +0.5 1.85 188Bet TWO bets at 2 points each = 4 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions Results: Burnley 1 Newcastle 1 Void, returns 2.0 C Palace 0 Aston Villa 1 Won, returns 3.7 Total stake: 4 points Total return: 5.7 Profit/loss = +1.7 points Bank now 100.02 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions Good luck with this Louis, watching with interest, you are probably aware that similar systems to this have been tried over the past few years, both backing & laying Lawro's predictions, (do a site search of 'Lawro' if you haven't seen them). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions Good luck with this Louis' date=' watching with interest, you are probably aware that similar systems to this have been tried over the past few years, both backing & laying Lawro's predictions, (do a site search of 'Lawro' if you haven't seen them).[/quote'] I wasn't aware of that at all, but thanks for the information :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions I found three old systems based on Lawro's tips - interestingly, one backing and two laying the tips. The one backing the tips didn't last long and didn't show any real figures. "I'm Forever Laying Lawro" showed a small profit but the thread didn't last long - http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/6905-I-m-Forever-Laying-Lawro?highlight=lawro "Lay-Mark-Lawrenson" lasted about 10 months, and was showing quite a big loss when the thread starter ended it, saying: "I've decided to let this thread die a death now. It seems that Lawro does seem to know what he's on about in the long term although he does have some very poor weeks from time to time but he has backed them up with some very impressive tipping" http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/24079-Lay-Mark-Lawrenson/page6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions I noticed the earlier 'Lawro' systems either backed or opposed his entire selection. I prefer to be more selective - I like to look to compare the home/away odds with Lawro's forecast for the result - and then see if any of the odds are noticeably out of line with Lawro's thinking. There's just ONE that stands out this weekend - Stoke at home to Arsenal - Stoke v Arsenal Best home/away odds 4.19/2.05 Lawro's prediction: 1-1 Best 2-way bet: Stoke +0.5 1.92 Bet365 ONE bet at 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted December 6, 2014 Author Share Posted December 6, 2014 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions Result: Stoke 3 Arsenal 2 Won, returns 3.84 Stake: 2 points Return: 3.84 points Profit/loss = +1.84 points Bank now 101.86 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions Nice one Louis, I like this approach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions Sat 13 Dec to Mon 15 Dec Comparing Lawro's predictions with this weekend's odds, there is ONE match that produces some value on the team - West Brom v Aston Villa West Brom v Aston Villa Best home/away odds: 2.3/4.0 Lawro prediction: 2-2 Best 2-way bet: Aston Villa +0.5 1.83 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions Result: West Brom 1 Aston Villa 0 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil Profit/loss - 2 points Bank now 99.86 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions Sat 20 Dec to Mon 22 Dec Analysing Lawro's predictions againt this weekend's fixtures, produces TWO 'team value' selections - Hull and Sunderland Hull - Swansea Best home/away odds: 3.2/2.6 Lawro prediction: 2-1 Best 2-way bet: Hull AH0 2.2 188Bet Newcastle - Sunderland Best home/away odds: 2.14/4.2 Lawro prediction: 1-1 Best 2-way bet: Sunderland +0.5 1.82 188Bet TWO bets at 2 points each = 4 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions Results: Hull 0 Swansea 1 Lost, returns nil Newcastle 0 Sunderland 1 Won, returns 3.64 points Total stake: 4 points Total return: 3.64 points Profit/loss = -0.36 points Bank now 99.5 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions Back after the Christmas break ... New Years Day, Jan 1st 2015 Looking at Lawro's predictions, there is some value on Crystal Palace and Hull. Figures below fixtures are best current home/away odds, with Lawro's prediction below them, in this format: Team A v Team B home/away Lawro: Aston Villa v C Palace 2.46/3.45 Lawro: 1-2 Best 2-way bet: C Palace +0.25 1.9 Bet365 Hull v Everton 3.4/2.38 Lawro: 2-1 Best 2-way bet: Hull +0.25 1.93 Bet365 TWO bets at 2 points each = 4 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions Results: Aston Villa 0 C Palace 0 half won/half void, returns 1.9+1 = 2.9 Hull 2 Everton 0 won, returns 3.86 Total stake: 4 points Total return: 6.76 points Profit/loss = +2.76 points Bank now 102.26 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions Sat 3rd Jan to Mon 5th Jan This weekend, Lawro predicts some FA cup scores. Although the thread title is 'Lawro's Premier League Predictions', I'm including these cup games because it fits the pattern of following Lawro's predictions. From his chosen games, there is team value on Hull and Burnley - Team A v Team B Home/away odds Lawro prediction: Arsenal v Hull 1.37/10.0 Lawro: 1-1 Best mid-priced 2-way bet Hull +1.5 1.93 BetVictor Burnley v Tottenham 4.83/1.84 Lawro: 2-1 Best mid-priced 2-way bet Burnley +0.75 1.88 188Bet TWO bets at 2 points each = 4 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions Results: Arsenal 2 Hull 0 lost Burnley 1 Tottenham 1 won, returns 3.76 Total stake: 4 points Total return: 3.76 points Profit/loss = -0.24 points Bank now 102.02 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions 13 bets @ 2 points Total staked: 13 x 2 = 26 points Total return: 28.02 points 6.5 winners 1.5 void 5 losers Strike rate = 6.5/13 = 50% Yield = ((28.02/26) -1) x 100 = 7.77% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions: 13 bets, +7.77% yield Sat 10th to Sun 11th Jan Back to the Premier League this weekend. Lawro's predictions produce THREE matches with team value - on Sunderland, West Ham and Crystal Palace Below are home and away odds, and Lawro's prediction, followed by the best mid-priced (around 2.0) bet. Sunderland v Liverpool 4.6/1.98 Lawro: 1-1 Sunderland +0.5 2.05 BetVictor Swansea v West Ham 2.3/3.5 Lawro: 1-1 West Ham +0.25 2.0 BetVictor C Palace v Tottenham 3.75/2.22 Lawro: 2-0 C Palace +0.25 2.05 188Bet THREE bets at 2 points each = 6 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions: 13 bets, +7.77% yield Results: Sunderland 0 Liverpool 1 lost Swansea 1 West Ham 1 half won/half void, returns 2+1 = 3 C Palace 2 Tottenham 1 won. returns 4.1 Total stake: 6 points Total return: 7.1 Profit/loss = +1.1 points Bank now 103.12 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions: 16 bets, +9.75% yield 16 bets @ 2 points Total staked: 16 x 2 = 32 points Total return: 35.12 points 8 winners 2 void 6 losers Strike rate = 8/16 = 50% Yield = ((35.12/32) -1) x 100 = 9.75% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions: 16 bets, +9.75% yield Sat 17th to Mon 19th Jan There is team value on TWO matches this weekend according to Lawro - on Aston Villa and Newcastle. Here are home and away odds, and Lawro's prediction, followed by the best mid-priced (around 2.0) bet. Sat 15.00 Aston Villa - Liverpool 5.0/1.94 Lawro: 1-1 Villa +0.5 2.05 188Bet Sat 17.30 Newcastle - Southampton 3.4/2.45 Lawro: 1-1 Newcastle +0.25 1.9 BetVictor TWO bets at 2 points each = 4 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions: 16 bets, +9.75% yield Results: Aston Villa 0 Liverpool 2 Lost Newcastle 1 Southampton 2 Lost Total stake: 4 points Total return: nil Profit/loss = -4 points Bank now 99.12 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions: 16 bets, +9.75% yield 18 bets @ 2 points Total staked: 18 x 2 = 36 points Total return: 35.12 points 8 winners 2 void 8 losers Strike rate = 8/18 = 44.4% Yield = ((35.12/36) -1) x 100 = -2.44% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions: 18 bets, -2.24% yield Lawro turns his attention to the FA Cup this weekend. His predictions translate into 'team' value on Birmingham, Leicester, Bolton and Rochdale. As usual, here are best home/away odds, Lawro's predictions, and the best handicap bet priced around 2.0. Saturday Birmingham - West Brom 4.11/2.05 Lawro: 2-1 Birmingham +0.5 1.9 188Bet Saturday Tottenham - Leicester 1.71/5.5 Lawro: 1-1 Leicester +0.75 2.02 188Bet Saturday Liverpool - Bolton 1.33/11.5 Lawro: 1-1 Bolton +1.5 2.03 Ladbrokes Monday Rochdale - Stoke City 5.82/1.73 Lawro: 1-1 Rochdale +0.75 2.06 188Bet FOUR bets at 2 points each = 8 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions: 18 bets, -2.24% yield Results: Birmingham 1 West Brom 2 lost Tottenham 1 Leicester 2 won, returns 4.04 Liverpool 0 Bolton 0 won, returns 4.06 Rochdale 1 Stoke City 4 lost Total stake: 8 points Total return: 8.1 points Profit/loss = +0.1 points Bank now 99.22 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Re: Lawro's Premier League Predictions: 22 bets, -1.8% yield 22 bets @ 2 points Total staked: 22 x 2 = 44 points Total return: 43.22 points 10 winners 2 void 10 losers Strike rate = 10/22 = 45.5% Yield = ((43.22/44) -1) x 100 = -1.8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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