2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov

[Tedthewolf]

[h=1]Melbourne Cup Day in Australia[/h] [h=3]Quick Facts[/h]Melbourne Cup Day is Australia’s most celebrated horse racing event. It is an annual public holiday in the state of Victoria and is observed nationwide on the first Tuesday of November.[h=3]Local names[/h][TABLE=class: hol-aka, width: 1] [TR=class: c1, bgcolor: #F3F3F3] [TH=align: left]Name[/TH] [TH=class: sep, align: left]Language[/TH] [/TR]

[TR=class: c0, bgcolor: #FFFFFF] [TD=align: left]Melbourne Cup Day[/TD] [TD=align: left]English[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: c1, bgcolor: #F7F7F7] [TD=align: left]Melbourne Cup Day[/TD] [TD=align: left]German[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [h=3]Melbourne Cup Day 2014[/h]Tuesday, November 4, 2014 [h=3]Melbourne Cup Day 2015[/h]Tuesday, November 3, 2015 List of dates for other years Melbourne Cup Day is Australia’s best known horse racing event held on the first Tuesday of November every year. It is an annual public holiday in the state of Victoria. This event is popularly dubbed as “the race that stops the nation”. Melbourne Cup Day centers on horse racing. ©iStockphoto.com/christine balderas [h=2]Celebrate Melbourne Cup Day[/h] Melbourne Cup Day is one of Australia’s most popular social and racing events. The main racing event takes place at the Flemington Racecourse in Melbourne, Victoria. More than 100,000 people usually attend Flemington Racecourse. Local races are held throughout the country on this day and when the main race of the day occurs at the Flemington Racecourse it is televised on screens at race tracks across Australia. The race is televised live to an audience of about 650 million people worldwide. Many people stop what they are doing shortly before 3pm on Melbourne Cup Day to watch or listen to the main race either via television, Internet or the radio. At the races, people dress up – many women wear their best or most colorful hats and dresses, with some participating in fashion parades on the field. Marquees are set up for VIP guests, including local, national and international celebrities who attend this festive event. Champagne, wine and gourmet finger foods are usually served on this day. Many offices across the Australia stop work closer to the time of the main race to celebrate the event. Activities include office parties that feature hat and dress competitions, staff lunches at restaurants and afternoon teas where a television is available so workers can watch the main race. Bets are made on this day – even those who usually do not bet try their luck with a small wager or entry into a sweep, which is a lottery in which each ticket holder is matched with a randomly drawn horse. There are some Australians who deem horse racing as a cruel sport and have been vocal in their protests over the years. [h=2]Public life[/h] Melbourne Cup Day is a public holiday in Melbourne so many people have the day off work. Other towns and cities in Victoria can have a public holiday or 2 half-day public holidays in lieu of Melbourne Cup Day. For example, the town of Wodonga, in northern Victoria, celebrates Wodonga Gold Cup Day, on the last Friday of November. Although it is a legal holiday in only Victoria, it is observed in many towns and cities so there may be traffic congestion near race tracks in urban areas and parking may be difficult to find in these areas. [h=2]About Melbourne Cup Day[/h] Melbourne Cup Day has been observed in Australia since the first race was held at the Flemington Racecourse in Victoria in 1861. The race was won by Archer, who won it again the following year. The event features races, including the handicap race which is run by about 20 thoroughbreds for a couple million Australian dollars. The story of Phar Lap, a legendary New Zealand thoroughbred who won the Melbourne Cup in 1930 and was nicknamed “Australia's wonder horse”, was made into a movie. Some people believe he was poisoned when he died. The first Tuesday in November, Melbourne Cup Day, was officially gazetted a full public holiday in 1877 in Melbourne. While all of Melbourne's 31 metropolitan councils celebrated the first Tuesday in November, there was a gap where some regional councils had not selected an 11th public holiday. Therefore, in 2008 the Victorian Parliament passed a new legislation that saw Melbourne Cup Day as a public holiday for all council areas in the state except those where other holidays have been designated. This means that Melbourne Cup Day is now officially a public holiday throughout the state. There are similar races throughout Australia, as horse racing is popular, but Melbourne Cup Day is still the number one horse racing event in the country. Admire Rakti (5), Protectionist (7), Lucia Valentina (8)in, Fawkner (14), Mutual Regard(20), Who Shot Thebarman (20), Bande (25), Pethers Moon (25), The Offer (25), Araldo(33)in, Big Memory (33)in, Cavalryman (33), Contributer (33), Dandino (33), Junoob(33), Just The Judge (33), Puissance De Lune (33), Red Cadeaux (33), Brambles (40), Seismos (40)out , Signoff (40), Sirius (40), Willing Foe (40), Almandin (50), Angel Gabrial(50), Caravan Rolls On (50), Lucky Speed (50), Our Voodoo Prince (50), Puccini (50), Royal Diamond (50), Sertoruis (50), Silent Achiever (50), Spillway (50), Stipulate (50), Amralah (66), Biographer (66), Cafe Society (66), Foundry (66), Gatewood (66), Hawkspur (66), Lidari (66), Lord Van Percy (66), Moment In Time (66), My Ambivalent(66), Opinion (66), Sennockian Star (66), Sertorius (66), Side Glance (66), Zanbagh (80), Au Revoir (100), Bonfire (100), Green Moon (100), Kirramosa (100), La Amistad (100), Manalapan (100), Noble Protector (100), Plutocracy (100), Sea Moon (100), Shoreham(100), Tupac Amaru (100), Gris Caro (150), Lets Make Adeal (150), More Than Sacred(150), Renew (150), Sangster (150), Wish Come True (150), Akavoroun (200), Ancient King (200), Black Tycoon (200), Brigantin (200), Marksmanship (200), Pinstripe Lane(200), Precedence (200), Quayside (200), Ethiopia (250), Le Roi (250), Like A Carousel(250), Masked Marvel (250), Prince Of Penzance (250), Celtic Prince (300), Don Doremo (300), Slow Pace (300), Gallatin (400), Khalid (400), Ali Vital (500), Goldoni(500), Mr Oceirin (500), Ominous (500), Pretty Blonde (500), Thunderbird One (500), Unchain My Heart (500), Waltzing To Win (500), Au Renoir (SP)

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov Three small bets for me so far win bet on BF a few weeks ago on Irish raider MUTAL REGARD 34.00 was taken over early for this not having a prep run go straight into the race has been backed a bit think it will run a big race and have just backed two of Godolphins horses both e/w CAVALRYMAN @33'S who has had a good year did run in this 2012 but is a better horse now & WILLING FOE 40/1 who l slighty favour more of the two has had a couple of runs this year and will be spot on for this as the boys in blue really want to win this race.

[Aidymac]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov Thanks Ted! Any fancy for the big race mate? Strong European challenge this year?

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov Saturdays prep race the Caulfield Cup cracking finish by the winner! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvzAMyXQQj0

[cpo]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov Very impressive from that Admire Rakti but I am sure he now carries a weight that no other horse has carried to victory before? Someone please correct me but I am sure I heard that? I quite like Cavalryman for this

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov [h=1]Caulfield Cup beaten brigade set for Melbourne Cup glory[/h] Roar Guru By BrisburghPhil, 21 Oct 2014 BrisburghPhil is a Roar Guru

Tagged:

caulfield cup, Horses, Melbourne Cup, Racing

0Have your say Email + enlarge image 2013 Melbourne Cup winner Fiorente - who will take out the big one this year? (AAP Image/Hamish Blair) [h=2]Related coverage[/h]

• Melbourne Cup 2014 news

It has been six long years now since a runner in the Caulfield Cup has won the Melbourne Cup. That horse was Viewed in 2008, who ran in Mackinnon Stakes Saturday prior. Ironically the last horse to come directly from the Caulfield Cup and go on and win at Flemington was the Japanese horse Delta Blues, coming off an outstanding third in 2006. Had he not been three wide on the speed that day he would undoubtedly have completed the double that year. It would seem more likely than not, that this year, we are going to see the winner of the 2014 Melbourne Cup come via the Caulfield Cup. Yesterday a 0.5kg penalty was announced for this year’s winner Admire Rakti who is unlikely to be unseated as favourite between now and that first Tuesday in November. I’m surprised he wasn’t given at least 1-kg given that those he beat at Caulfield aren’t significantly better off at the weights for a sound beating. People are going to have differing opinions but here is my take on the beaten brigade and what chances they might have of turning the tables. Lucia Valentina (3rd) She got a bit further back in the race than I would have expected, and that ended up being her downfall, given the tempo of the race, and how wide she was forced on the turn. She finished the race off at least as well as the winner, and certainly better than any other runner but that might not necessarily be the case with another 800m in distance. If she were mine I would have gone to the Cox Plate this week but you can’t doubt her will to win and the fact she never runs a bad race. She will only meet Admire Rakti 0.5kg better for this deficit and he is a much more seasoned horse and proven at the distance. Yet to win beyond 2000m which just isn’t the recipe for success these days over 3200m at Flemington. Brambles (4th) Brambles has been the surprise packet of the Spring and he was good in this race once more. He did get a lovely run in the race though and was outpointed late by the winner and Lucia. He actually meets Admire Rakti on the same weight terms and the Cup is rarely won by a horse that hasn’t won beyond 2400m in the modern era. Araldo (5th) Araldo was a surprise packet here and seems to be on the improve this Spring. He has been his own worst enemy, erratic and without an aptitude to ‘find the line’. He didn’t seem totally genuine at the finish of this race either after a perfect run but he should take no harm from the run and he might appreciate Flemington and the 2 miles. I say that because he has won at Flemington (on protest) in listed grade and has been placed there in G3 company (Lexus last year), but more importantly he has a half brother called Altano (sire Galileo) who has won at 4000m and did actually run third to Melbourne Cup second favourite Protectionist in France over 3000m recently. That gives you some hope that this horse might ‘gobble up’ the extra 800m in journey, but then again his sire High Chaparral isn’t renowned as producing 2 milers in this hemisphere. Another encouraging fact is that this horse is a 6yo entire and five of the last six Melbourne Cups have been won by Entires. He looks a live chance but only has a 0.5kg turnaround on Admire Rakti. At least he has won beyond 2400m albeit 2500m. Lidaro (6th) Probably ran to his ability and had his chance. He found a few better than him and it’s doubtful 3200m is going to suit. Has won twice at 2400m but once again that’s not going to really cut it at two miles in the Melbourne Cup these days. Best thing about his is his 5yo entire status but he may not go to Flemington anyway given he is also entered in this weeks Cox Plate. Junoob (7th) Didn’t have the best of luck in the race and tried his heart out in the straight actually taking some ground of those ahead of him at the finish. He has failed twice beyond 2400m though and the Metropolitan win may have been a peak effort for him this campaign, Hard to seem him figuring and he might lack the necessary class even at his best. Green Moon (9th) Got a beautiful run turning for him but just wasn’t good enough with his big weight. Won his Melbourne Cup with 53.5kg in a moderately run race. Doubtful he can win 57kg after failing badly with 57.5kg last year. He is an Entire winner, but at 7yo (and a local) that is not an historical success story. Recent Entire winners have been 6yo or less. Big Memory (10th) Ran surprisingly well in this class finishing off well from the tail, and he drops to 50.5kg in the Melbourne Cup. That makes him the only horse you can really make a case for against Admire Rakti at the weights given he will be 2kg better off. He might be a year off full maturity but interesting that his half sister recently won a 3500m race in France. No explanation for his dismal failure in the Adelaide Cup over 3200m in March, but at least will carry a few kilos less than he did there, if he makes the field. My guess is he will lack the class, but he is not hopeless all the same. The Offer (11th) Came into the race under a bit of an injury cloud and yet again was found a little bit wanting in a Group 1 Spring event. Given there was a bit of give in the track this was his chance to shine but he had no luck early being wide from his barrier. ‘When the chips were down’ at the 1000m mark, he failed to sprint when required and by the time he had started to make any ground on those ahead the race was over at the point of the turn. Again he finished off quite well and he gives the indication that 3200m is what he is looking for. His problem might be the 56.5kg he has been allocated as he hasn’t yet proved he is classy enough to carry that weight and win. And he might just need a significantly rain affected track to produce his best on Melbourne Cup day. Can’t sack him just yet but time is running out. Maybe a run in the Mackinnon is on the agenda given he did win the Sydney Cup easily off a seven-day break? Who Shot The Barman (13th) He was found wanting here but the consensus was he wasn’t going to be suited at Caulfield and that seemed to be the case. Glen Boss reported he didn’t corner too well and it’s doubtful he appreciated an aggressive ride. Maybe he didn’t like the a surface that was slightly rain affected either and I quite like the way he ‘stuck to his guns in the straight’. The only track he has peformed well at this Spring has been Flemington (2 wins), so all hope is not lost, especially given the stable seemed apprehensive about his chances coming into the race. He will run the two miles right out and while some may doubt his class I think his formlines stack up okay (Brambles/Marksmanship). He may have a kilo or so too much at Flemington and only meets Admire Rakti 0.5kg better off but a dry track would still see him as a leaiding chance in my eyes. Seismos (15th) He was terribly disappointing in the race given yours truly gave him a big chance of winning. He is a very hard horse to fathom but his formlines suggested he was up to winning a Caulfield Cup if he could find his best form. The Melbourne Cup seemed to be the ultimate goal beforehand but he has failed five times at 2800m and above so it’s hard to see him winning a Melbourne Cup with that profile. Amybe Flemington and a change of jockey and/or Gear could help though? Summing up I can’t get confident about any of these beating Admire Rakti at Flemington, but a change of circuit and/or track condition could be pivotal. The most likely would seem to be Who Shot TheBarman, The Offer and Araldo. No doubt that races like the Cox Plate, Moonee Valley Cup, Lexus Stakes, and The Mackinnon are going to throw up a surprise or two, but the Caulfield Cup seems set to be the major influence this Spring.

[richard-westwood]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov interesting piece of form ...............and obviously the hcapper will have his say ..........ive looked the betting and flagged a couple of horses who ran well in that race and will probably be untouched or even lightened by the hcapper should they run .........first horse is THE OFFER .....looks a decent type and ran extremely wide losing ground all the time ......very much a staying type will relish the two miles and looks a good price at around 27.0 ..............second horse which caught the eye if he runs is HAWKSPUR .......this horse has been touted as a Melbourne cup horse by the jockey ......and has pieces of form that can back that up and also runs stinkers ..i.e last years cup ......but may have just been inexperienced ......nonetheless ......was checked and would probably have finished around 2 lengths behind Caulfield cup winner .....staying on ...............that piece of form puts this horse in a good place with the extra distance of two miles looking a distinct possibility especially if the hcapper helps and gets the nod to try his luck ....price .??.....130.0 betfair ..........you know me .......ill have that the offer 5pts win 27.0 betfair hawkspur 5pts win 130.0 betfair

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov

Very impressive from that Admire Rakti but I am sure he now carries a weight that no other horse has carried to victory before? Someone please correct me but I am sure I heard that? I quite like Cavalryman for this

Have read this - "The last horse to win a Melbourne Cup with 58.5 was Think Big in 1975, and the last horse to lump 59 to victory was Rain Lover in 1969 when he bravely won his second Melbourne Cup".

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov ^] [h=2]Results and records[edit][/h] Main articles: List of Melbourne Cup winners and List of Melbourne Cup placings [h=3]Most wins by a horse[edit][/h]

• 3 – Makybe Diva (2003, 2004, 2005)
• 2 – Think Big (1974, 1975)
• 2 – Rain Lover (1968, 1969)
• 2 – Peter Pan (1932, 1934)
• 2 – Archer (1861, 1862)

[h=3]Most wins by a jockey[edit][/h]

• 4 – Bobby Lewis (1902, 1915, 1919, 1927)
• 4 – Harry White (1974, 1975, 1978, 1979)

[h=3]Most wins by a trainer[edit][/h]

• 12 – Bart Cummings (1965, 1966, 1967, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1979, 1990, 1991, 1996, 1999, 2008)
• 5 – Etienne de Mestre (1861, 1862, 1867, 1877, 1878)
• 5 – Lee Freedman (1989, 1992, 1995, 2004, 2005)

[h=3]Most wins by an owner[edit][/h]

• 4 – John Tait (1866, 1868, 1871, 1872)
• 4 – Etienne de Mestre (1861*, 1862*, 1867*, 1878) *The winners of these years were leased.^[24][25]
• 4 – Dato Tan Chin Nam (1974, 1975, 1996, 2008)
• 4 – Lloyd Williams (1981, 1985, 2007, 2012)

[h=3]Other records[edit][/h]

• Record winning time – 3.16.30 Kingston Rule (1990)
• Widest winning margin – 8 lengths by Archer in 1862 and Rain Lover in 1968.^[63]
• Heaviest weight carried by winner – Carbine in 1890 with 10 stone 5 pounds (66 kg) Makybe Diva holds the record for a mare with 58 kg in 2005.^[64] The horse to carry the heaviest weight of all time was Phar Lap (10 stone 10 pounds) in 1931 when he ran 8th.^[65]
• Longest odds winners – Three horses have won at 100–1: The Pearl (1871), Wotan (1936) and Old Rowley (1940).^[52]
• Shortest odds winner – Phar Lap at 8/11 in 1930.
• Favourites record – 34 of 150 favourites (23%) have won the Melbourne Cup.^[57]
• Most runners – 39 (1890)
• Fewest runners – 7 (1863)
• Most attempts – Shadow King made six attempts to win the cup in seven years between 1929 and 1935. He ran 6th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd and 4th.^[52]

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov Godolphin book their 2014 Melbourne Cup jockeys International racing superpower Godolphin will use an Australian-based rider and a British jockey to partner their two runners, Cavalryman and Willing Foe, in the 2014 Melbourne Cup. Reigning champion Sydney jockey James McDonald will be aboard the Saeed Bin Suroor-trained Cavalryman in the world’s richest handicap while James Doyle will ride the stablemate Willing Foe. Doyle is best known to Australian punters as the rider of Kingman, the four time European Group I winner this season. The three-year-old son of Invincible Spirit has been successful in the Irish 2000 Guineas, St James’s Palace Stakes, Sussex Stakes and the Prix Jacques Le Marios. In total the 26-year-old has ridden nine Group I winners. It will be Doyle’s first ride in the Melbourne while McDonald has ridden in the past two, finishing second in 2012 aboard Fiorente before finishing 10th last year on Voleuse de Coeurs. Corporate bookie Sportsbet is offering $26 for Willing Foe and $34 for Cavalryman, who is having his second attempt in the Melbourne Cup after finishing 12th behind Green Moon in 2012.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov Another pointer for the big race was run earlier today in oz. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ouFOZ02LIE

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov .....and another one http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhxmVnvj7Ss

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov Useful sites http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/me...up-form-guide/ http://melbournecup.racingandsports.com.au/ http://melbournecup.com/racing/upcom...ourne-cup-day/ http://www.racenet.com.au/melbourne-cup/ http://melbourne-cup.betting-directory.com/ Last years race http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKanuV8U6NY

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov laest odds [h=3]Favourites:[/h] Admire Rakti (9/2), Lucia Valentina (7), Protectionist (7), Fawkner (12), Mutual Regard(12), Araldo (25), Cavalryman (25)in, Junoob (25), Red Cadeaux (25), The Offer (25), Who Shot Thebarman (25), Brambles (33), Silent Achiever (33), Willing Foe (33), Caravan Rolls On (40), Seismos (40), Big Memory (50), Royal Diamond (50), Signoff(50), Amralah (66) , Contributer (66), Gatewood (66), Hawkspur (66), Lidari (66), Lord Van Percy (66), My Ambivalent (66), Noble Protector (66), Opinion (66), Sertorius (66), Stipulate (66), Au Revoir (100), Bonfire (100), Green Moon (100), Kirramosa (100), La Amistad (100), Lets Make Adeal (100), Sangster (100), Sea Moon (100), Gris Caro(150), Prince Of Penzance (150), Renew (150), Ancient King (200), Brigantin (200), Marksmanship (200), More Than Sacred (200), Pinstripe Lane (200), Precedence (200), Quayside (200), Shoreham (200), Wish Come True (200), Zanbagh (200), Akavoroun(250), Black Tycoon (250), Le Roi (250), Like A Carousel (250), Masked Marvel (250), Don Doremo (300), Slow Pace (300), Celtic Prince (400), Ethiopia (400), Gallatin (400), Khalid (400), Ali Vital (500), Goldoni (500), Mr Oceirin (500), Ominous (500), Pretty Blonde (500), Thunderbird One (500), Unchain My Heart (500), Waltzing To Win (500)

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov Early Bird form guide worth a look! http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/superracing/melbourne-cup-2014-early-bird-form-guide-for-the-race-that-stops-a-nation/story-fnibcaa0-1227106376642

[richard-westwood]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov these should help narrow it down .......... 9/10 were 4 or 5yr olds ...exception maykby diva age 6 so arguably 10/10 in the last ten years 16 of the 20 horses to finish first and second were drawn 5-14 10/10 ran within 17 days 10/10 ran in 13 or fewer hcaps 9/10 carried 56.5 or lower that's got to cut the field down once final decs are confirmed

[richard-westwood]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov

these should help narrow it down .......... 9/10 were 4 or 5yr olds ...exception maykby diva age 6 so arguably 10/10 in the last ten years 16 of the 20 horses to finish first and second were drawn 5-14 10/10 ran within 17 days 10/10 ran in 13 or fewer hcaps 9/10 carried 56.5 or lower that's got to cut the field down once final decs are confirmed

actually according to that the draw will cut the field to 9 horses .....apply the trends and bang you have your e.w horse of the race ....hopefully ..lol

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov A lot of decent older horses this year Rich, trends may go out the window this year!

Crowd nine as Melbourne Cup field shapes among oldest in history

Date

October 29, 2014

[*=center]

• i

One of the "old" gang of four: Irish contender Royal Diamond exercises at Werribee.

Photo: Quinn Rooney

Some of Australian racing's most powerful voices have lamented what looms as one of the oldest Melbourne Cup fields ever assembled, with no less than four nine-year-olds likely to get a start in the $6 million race. No nine-year-old has ever finished among the placegetters - let alone won the race - but it has not stopped the blue-rinse brigade queueing up for a shot at next Tuesday's spoils. While much has been made of the fact that only one Australian-bred horse, Lloyd Williams' Fawkner, is likely to take a spot in this year's field, much less has been said about the ageing horde of Cup runners. As the current order of entry stands, Bart and James Cummings' Precedence - along with European-trained Red Cadeaux, Cavalryman and Royal Diamond - will form an historic nine-year-old quartet in 2014. Red Cadeaux, Cavalryman and Royal Diamond are eight-year-olds by northern hemisphere time, but are considered in the nine-year-old vintage by Australian standards. According to the records of Racing Victoria's chief handicapper Greg Carpenter, the most nine-year-olds ever to run in the Cup in one year was two in 2009. Cups king Bart Cummings, looking for a 13th success in the great race, said the reasoning was simple. "We just do not breed stayers any more," he said. "That's why we have no [younger] runners. Even New Zealand is starting not to breed them as much as they used to and if you don't have a horse you can't have a runner." But perhaps even more glaringly, the staying stocks at the other end of the spectrum have thinned out so badly that Kris Lees' Lucia Valentina is the only four-year-old safely in the field, with overseas raiders Protectionist and Au Revoir to fly the five-year-old flag. Six-year-olds have won the last four Melbourne Cups, but the influx of more seasoned European stayers into Australia means the profile for a Melbourne Cup winner is only likely to get older. "It is a stark statement about the Australian breeding industry that our biggest race is full of these older horses that are mostly bred overseas," said Arrowfield supremo John Messara, one of Australia's largest breeders and Racing NSW supremo. "We all know stayers take a long time to come through, but it is obvious that we are not breeding enough of them. It really is genetics and culture that leads to something like this happening. In Australia we want a quick return and speed and we aren't prepared to be patient like they are in Europe. "Any staying stallion doesn't get the support because you're going to have to wait a few years for the horses to come through." Last year's Melbourne Cup-winning trainer Gai Waterhouse, who had her hopes of a repeat dashed when The Offer was withdrawn on Tuesday, has been vocal about making it easier for classic-winning three-year-olds to transition into the Cups. "It just shows even the older European stayers are still superior to the Australian horses," she said. "They are getting older and older and they are a bit like warhorses these stayers, aren't they? "All the better horses get sold off early to stud because most of them are entires. Anything that's got a bit of sex appeal, eg Adelaide, he'll be lucky to race on one more season because he will be at stud. "You go to a fabulous sale like Karaka ready-to-run sale, which is on in the middle of November, and you've got to almost twist peoples' arms and you shouldn't because that's where your derby and oaks horses come from." Lees said the Caulfield Cup had always been the target for Lucia Valentina, which now has to ward off the ever-increasing threat posed by her older rivals. "You've got to remember horses aren't as hearty as they used to be," he said. "Even with her we were concentrating on the Caulfield Cup and the Melbourne Cup was there, but you don't want to gas them early." Zipping (2010), Kiwi (1986), Magistrate (1980) and Donald (1930) have all run fourth in the Cup as nine-year-olds. Magistrate, an 11-year-old in 1982, is the oldest ever entrant in the Flemington two-miler.

[richard-westwood]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov ill rate this race fully once final decs there and ive got access to all the info......its a very difficult race ted so any angle helpful .....im.hoping the draw is gonna help .cos that will hopefully reduce the field to nine .....then with a bit of luck somethins gonna jump out ......hawkspur i think is not running so my two at moment are the passage ...and protectionist .....but im reserving judgement til.ive seen whos in and where ....i think im def against the fav though

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov Melbourne Cup 2014 154th Melbourne Cup Carnival The Melbourne Cup is a race that stops the nation as Australia comes to a collective stand-still to watch or listen to the most famous race of all. The Melbourne Cup is steeped in tradition and folklore, with Phar Lap, Tulloch and Makybe Diva as recognisable as any name in Australia's sporting history. About the Race The Melbourne Cup is held at Flemington Racecourse, where over 100,000 people attend every year, with the capacity crowd taking up their vantage point well before the race jumps to secure a good view. It is run over a distance of 3200m (two-miles) with the large field of 24 horses thundering down the long straight, and past the winning post before doing a complete circuit of the track. It takes over three minutes to complete, with the fastest Melbourne Cup run in 1990, when Kingston Rule saluted in a time of just over 3min 16sec. The Melbourne Cup is run under handicap conditions mean horses are allotted a weight to carry on the basis of their race performances. In theory that means the best horses will always carry the most weight, as opposed to weight-for-age racing where horses are allocated a weight that is based on their sex and age, and not their career history. Handicap conditions also mean astute trainers will try and get their horse into the Cup with as little weight as possible. However they often tread a tricky path as a horse placed too low in the ratings may be denied a start, if higher weighted horses take all the places in the field. Gaining a start in the final field of 24 runners for the 2013 Melbourne Cup is largely dependent on the ballot position of a horse which is determined by the performances in relevant races. There are a number of relevant races including Group races in Australia and internationally that are over 2300m in distance. The other method of gaining entry is to win a Exemption race. These are races that provide for an automatic ballot, should the horse's connections choose to excercise it. It means a runner has a chance to gain a start in the Melbourne Cup right up to the final Saturday before the Cup with the running of the Hotham Handicap and the Mackinnon Stakes The exemption races for the Melbourne Cup, include: [TABLE=class: padded hiddenMobile, width: 763]

[TR] [TD=bgcolor: #FDFDFD]2013 VRC Hotham Handicap[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FDFDFD]2013 MVRC Cox Plate[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]2013 VRC Mackinnon Stakes[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]2013 MRC Caulfield Cup[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Melbourne Cup Prize Money The Cup offers prize money totaling $6 million, plus $175,000 in trophies for connections, ensuring it remains the richest handicap race in the world. [TABLE=class: padded hiddenMobile, width: 763] [TR] [TD=class: noright, bgcolor: #FDFDFD]First Prize:[/TD] [TD=class: noleft, bgcolor: #FDFDFD]$3,600,000[/TD] [TD=class: noright, bgcolor: #FDFDFD]Fourth:[/TD] [TD=class: noleft, bgcolor: #FDFDFD]$250,000 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: noright, bgcolor: #FFFFFF]Second:[/TD] [TD=class: noleft, bgcolor: #FFFFFF]$900,000[/TD] [TD=class: noright, bgcolor: #FFFFFF]Fifth:[/TD] [TD=class: noleft, bgcolor: #FFFFFF]$175,000[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: noright, bgcolor: #FDFDFD]Third:[/TD] [TD=class: noleft, bgcolor: #FDFDFD]$450,000[/TD] [TD=class: noright, bgcolor: #FDFDFD]Sixth - Tenth: [/TD] [TD=class: noleft, bgcolor: #FDFDFD]$125,000 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov

Three small bets for me so far win bet on BF a few weeks ago on Irish raider MUTAL REGARD 34.00 was taken over early for this not having a prep run go straight into the race has been backed a bit think it will run a big race and have just backed two of Godolphins horses both e/w CAVALRYMAN @33'S who has had a good year did run in this 2012 but is a better horse now & WILLING FOE 40/1 who l slighty favour more of the two has had a couple of runs this year and will be spot on for this as the boys in blue really want to win this race.

I did go in again for Mutal Regard this time e/w with the bookies and got a bit of 20's has been very well backed this week and is around 11/1 now i fancy this horse the most but have backed a couple more again for small stakes e/w MR stable mate ROYAL DIAMOND got 50's which is still around and MY AMBIVALENT i got 60's is 66's at the moe with BV this horse had a little scare but is 100% ok now i believe and will run hell of price in my eyes. I dont fancy the Jap horse that is Fav or any of the top 3 in the market or any Aussie trained runners for that matter its Irish, British or Godolphin trained winner for me but don't think it will be Red Cadeaux. May back one more horse and that will be GATEWOOD the Gosden runner who Will Buick flies out to ride is 66's at present and that will be my lot ...i think. My main two are Mutal Regard followed by Willing Foe. latest odds .....Admire Rakti (4), Lucia Valentina (7), Protectionist (7), Mutual Regard (11), Fawkner(12), Red Cadeaux (20), Araldo (25), Cavalryman (25), Who Shot Thebarman (25), Willing Foe (25), Junoob (28), Contributer (33), Seismos (33), Signoff (33), Silent Achiever (33), Brambles (40), Caravan Rolls On (40), Stipulate (40), Big Memory (50), Hawkspur (50) , Lidari (50), Royal Diamond (50), Zanbagh (50), Amralah (66), Gatewood (66), My Ambivalent (66), Opinion (66), Lord Van Percy (70), Green Moon(80), Au Revoir (100), La Amistad (100), Noble Protector (100), Precedence (100), Prince Of Penzance (100), Sea Moon (100), Shoreham (100), Gris Caro (150), Lets Make Adeal (150), Marksmanship (200), Mr Oceirin (200), Wish Come True (200), Like A Carousel (300), Thunderbird One (500), Unchain My Heart (500)

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov The last prep races before the big one....... Lexus Stakes Group 3 2014 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fB7qMpamVAU Longines Mackinnon Stakes 2014 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gN9nBCiBJSs

[richard-westwood]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov draw nd final decs have been made ....ill rate this up in a bit

[richard-westwood]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov http://www.racenet.com.au/news/105686/2014-Melbourne-Cup-%E2%80%93-The-field-and-barrier-draw

[richard-westwood]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov cant rate yet haven't got all info I need but .......strict application of trends I posted above are as follows drawn 5-14 16 of last 20 to finish 1st or 2nd unchained 5 royal diamond 6 junoob 7 admire rakti 8 fawkner 9 lidari 10 protectionist 11 mutual regard 12 whoshot 13 opinion 14 no horse older than 5 9/10 that leaves lidari 10 protectionist 11 mutual regard 12 opinion 14 10/10 ran within 17 days leaves lidari and opinion ......both 50/1 ????.................omg looking at form youd have to say if theres to be an upset its lidari ?....the forgotten horse ?...was only couple lengths behind admiral rakti last time ...........looks amazing value based on that and trends ?also fits last trend 10/10 56.5 or lower .......coup of the year ? http://www.races.com.au/2014/10/31/lidari-ready-for-melbourne-cup-test/

[richard-westwood]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov as my others are non runners and I love a value bet ....lets go all in for the jackpot ......I like the fact he has collateral lines with the fav and is sparkling at home so lidari is going to be my sole bet .........all or nothing jackpot time...gotta be in it to win it lidari 10pts win 70.0 betfair 10pts place 16.0

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov [h=2]Sport[/h]

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[h=1]Melbourne Cup 2014: Horse-by-horse guide to the Melbourne Cup field[/h]

Date

November 1, 2014 - 8:03PM

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[h=3]Andrew Eddy[/h] [h=4]Racing Editor for The Age[/h] View more articles from Andrew Eddy Email Andrew

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The Melbourne Cup. Photo: Steve Hynes

• Wizard of Odds: Live Odds, Form and Alerts for all Racing
• Full coverage: Melbourne Cup 2014
• Melbourne Cup sweep

? ADMIRE RAKTI: Japan's first Caulfield Cup winner, he must emulate Bart Cummings' great dual Melbourne Cup winner Think Big in 1975 as the last horse to carry 58.5 kilograms to victory. Notably, he wears a ribbon on his tail to notify to the people silly enough to walk behind him to expect something painful to occur at any time as he's a renowned kicker. Few of his rivals will get close enough to be concerned. ? CAVALRYMAN: With the Godolphin team but is an English-bred stayer, who is so old that you might remember him in a couple of episodes of It 'Aint Half Hot Mum. These days he spends his time racing around the world, no doubt regaling a few of the younger ones about the old days when he used to be good enough to win a race like this. Won't be there for the final charge. The tips that matter. ? FAWKNER: Last year's Caulfield Cup winner, who unlike his countless international rivals, is about as Aussie as it gets. Or as Aussie as Russell Crowe at least. Has Cups-winning sire Zabeel as his grandsire and four-time Cup winner Lloyd Williams as his owner so the pedigree is sound but there's something just not right about a Melbourne Cup winner named after a suburb most famous for dead people. Advertisement ? RED CADEAUX: An elusive old English gent, who seems only to perform when few expect him to. Been runner-up twice in this race at huge odds, but failed the only other time when fancied, No 9yo has ever won a Melbourne Cup so that tells a clear-thinking person that he has no chance. A slightly less clear-minded person may however point out that, for this horse, no chance is every chance. ? PROTECTIONIST: He caught the eye when he produced a mighty debut run in this country with 59 kilograms at group 2 level at Caulfield. A German horse, he is trained by Andreas Wohler, who has travelled horses around the world with great success. Only lightly raced and already up to 56.5 kilograms but the spacious Flemington will hold no fears for him. A good one to draw in the sweep. ? SEA MOON: Might be the slowest "good horse" ever to race in this country. Came to Australia from Europe with a huge reputation and even bigger price tag after great runs in Europe and in the Breeders Cup in the US, but these days would struggle to run out of sight on a dark night. It is difficult to imagine what sort of natural catastrophe it would take for him to be competitive here. ? SEISMOS: German group 1 winner who won a solid lead-up race in England before finding Caulfield's turns all a little too much in the Cup two weeks ago. His jockey Craig Newitt pestered the horse's owners via a series of long-distance calls and texts for the Cup ride until the owners had to choose between taking out an order against him and giving him the ride. He got lucky. ? JUNOOB: Is an Arabic word meaning "south of" but his chances are anything but. A former imported horse, he has been lapping up the sun for the past two seasons and it is no coincidence, therefore, that he is in the best form of his career. His trainer Chris Waller may win this race many times over the next few years and this horse is probably his best chance to this time. ? ROYAL DIAMOND: Irish-bred import trained by the former super Irish jockey Johnny Murtagh, who only retired from the saddle in February after an incredible career riding for the likes of racing giants John Oxx, the Aga Khan and Coolmore. Some trainers spend their lives trying to win this race so it would seem unfair for Murtagh to win it after just nine months. Doubt the old-timer can shine here. ? GATEWOOD: Now this must be one confused horse. He initially came out from England two years ago and won the Geelong Cup before being transferred to Chris Waller's Sydney stables, where he did not fire a shot in four subsequent runs. Emancipated back to England and suddenly regained his form and his reward for that was transportation back to the colonies. ? MUTUAL REGARD: Trainer Johnny Murtagh will have to call on all his renowned skill to turn around a jinx in Melbourne. In two Cup rides he has finished out of sight on Caitano in 2001 and the controversial Septimus in 2007. But this horse does boast seven wins over staying trips to 3200 metres, has only missed a place just three times in 17 runs and has Damien Oliver to ride. ? WHO SHOT THEBARMAN: A Kiwi galloper with a solid record of staying performances and a fine lineage to boot. Is a half-brother to the Derby winner Who Strangled The Gateman and his sisters Who Karate Chopped The Tea Lady and Who Elbowed The Tote Sheila were Oaks winners. Can prove himself the equal of his grandsire, Who Squirrel-Gripped The Bookie if he can win this race. ? WILLING FOE: Given his stablemate Cavalryman is drawing a pension, this spritely 8yo galloper is clearly the best of Sheikh Mohammed's chances of once again going agonisingly close to winning the Cup this year. Godolphin has been three times runner-up since first coming for the Cup in 1998 and this horse looks as though he could threaten to win but ultimately just fall short. ? MY AMBIVALENT: Not at all certain what to make of this Irish-bred mare as she poses so many contradictions. On the one hand, her overseas form is encouraging but then again this race is 800 metres further than she's ever run before. I'm doubtful, undecided, equivocal and even hesitant and irresolute when appraising her chances, which are mixed, to say the least. Or are they? ? PRECEDENCE: If prepared by any other trainer, this hardy 9yo would go around at his right odds of about 500-1. But he is not. The man who shares that task with his training partner and grandson James is the 12-time winner Bart Cummings and so Precedence will have his supporters. Bart turns 87 a week after the Cup. His present will not come early. ? BRAMBLES: His story would be one of the great Cup tales if he was to win. After taking out the Queensland Derby and signalling his intent to aim at the spring Cups, he did a tendon, which in football terms, is much like doing a knee; they rarely come back as good. A New Zealand-bred local, he is an on-pace runner and one who will prove a prickly opponent to take on. ? MR O'CEIRIN: This horse has done a deal of travelling since his early days in New Zealand as he has raced up and down the eastern seaboard. Qualified for this race by winning last year's Grafton Cup, which, it is fair to say, is slightly beneath the form of other horses in the field and indeed most of those horses who didn't make it. Is bold and can race on the speed so might see a bit of him early. ? AU REVOIR: Creates another moment for the Melbourne Cup as while this Irish-bred horse has the ability to win the race, his presence is most notable as it marks the first appearance in the great race of noted French trainer Andre Fabre. Put his hoof in the waters of Australian racing when got a bit hot in the Moonee Valley Cup when led but he fought on. Cannot farewell his chances. ? LIDARI: Former French horse but now an Aussie after more than a dozen runs out here for Caulfield trainer Peter Moody. Been thereabouts in group 1 races of late and although he's never been beyond 2400 metres, he's an on-pacer and a one-pacer, meaning that he will get close to the lead and do his best not to surrender his position. Class likely to tell against him at the finish. ? OPINION: Former import who has progressed through his classes to the point where he ran second in the Sydney Cup over this distance earlier this year. At the right age (six) and in the right weight range (53.5 kilograms) for a budding Cup winner but he looked more like a Manangatang Cup hope last Saturday when he just plodded home unplaced at Moonee Valley. ? ARALDO: Been underrated ever since arriving from Germany more than a year ago but his Metropolitan placing and Caulfield Cup fifth at his past two starts are hard to ignore. Brought here for this specific purpose and in the right hands as only four of these trainers have previously prepared a Cup winner. Araldo's trainer Mike Moroney did so in great style in 2000 with Kiwi horse Brew. ? LUCIA VALENTINA: Only began racing in October last year when she won a maiden at Tauranga in New Zealand. Just 12 months on and she ran the fastest final 1000 metres in the Caulfield Cup and was taking ground off the winner Admire Rakti. But away from that incidental stuff, what a great name for a horse. She'll need to be every bit as brave as she is so named to beat all these. ? UNCHAIN MY HEART: Her inclusion in the field probably best underlines the task the locals face. Just six months ago, this 8yo mare won the Ramsden Stakes – the only other 3200-metre stakes race at Flemington. But rather than being a resounding credit on her resume, few, if any, think she can get within 100 metres of the winner. She does stay and is brave and will beat a few home. ? SIGNOFF: Just when it looked as though the internationals would clean-sweep the spring majors along comes this 5yo who clinched an 11th hour Cup berth with his effortless Lexus win yesterday. Raced by 2010 Cup winner Americain's owner Gerry Ryan, who is also famous for making Jayco caravans and just like those caravans, Signoff is going to be hard to pass on Tuesday.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov Latest odds....... Admire Rakti (4), Lucia Valentina (7), Protectionist (7), Signoff (8)in, Fawkner (10)in, Mutual Regard (10), Cavalryman (20), Red Cadeaux (20), Who Shot Thebarman (20), Junoob (25)in, Willing Foe (25), Araldo (33)out, My Ambivalent (33)in, Seismos (33), Royal Diamond (40)in, Lidari (50), Opinion (50)in, Au Revoir (66)in, Brambles (66)out, Gatewood (66)out , Precedence (100), Sea Moon (100), Mr Oceirin (200), Unchain My Heart (250)in

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov http://www.news.com.au/sport/superracing/melbourne-cup/mugs-guide

[Tedthewolf]

Re: 2014 Melbourne Cup Tuesday 4th Nov [h=1]Melbourne Cup: Herbert Power Stakes could provide unlikely form guide for the Cup with German horse Protectionist and Lexus winner Signoff[/h] By Andrew McGarry Updated about 4 hours agoSun 2 Nov 2014, 7:34am PHOTO: Signoff (L) and Protectionist ® ran eye-catching runs in the Herbert Power Stakes - on Tuesday they will try to take the prize in the Melbourne Cup. (Getty Images: Vince Caligiuri) MAP: Flemington 3031 The Herbert Power Stakes is not one of the classic leadup races for the Melbourne Cup, but this year the race could be a key indicator through Cup chances Protectionist and Signoff. Rogan Josh in 1999 is the only recent winner of the Group Two 2,400m race at Caulfield who went on to back up to win at Flemington, although Shocking ran second in the 2009 race and went on to win the Cup. The Turnbull Stakes at Flemington and the Geelong Cup have been more accurate guides to the Melbourne Cup in recent years, with Let's Elope (1991), Makybe Diva (2005) and Green Moon (2012) doing the Turnbull-Cup double, while Media Puzzle (2002), Americain (2010) and Dunaden (2011) all won at Geelong before triumphing at Flemington on the first Tuesday of November. This year, however, a number of trainers aiming horses at the Cup opted to use the Herbert Power as a leadup race and while most entries did not go on to make the Cup field, two horses did. Signoff's narrow second place and Protectionist's flashing run for fourth both caught the eye at Caulfield, with the Andreas Wohler-trained Protectionist jumping to early Cup favouritism on the back of his run. The Darren Weir-trained Signoff is now among the fancied chances for the Cup after qualifying for the race with an official weight of 51kg on the back of its win in the Lexus Stakes on Saturday.

The plan was to run and win the Lexus, and try to sneak into the Cup without getting too much of a penalty.

Signoff trainer Darren Weir

The horse will be ridden at 51.5kg by star Brazilian jockey Joao Moreira, who won the Lexus on Signoff and the Coolmore Stud Stakes on Brazen Beau on Derby Day. Signoff eased slightly in Cup betting after drawing barrier 16, but its trainer was happy at beating the handicapper with a winnable weight for the race. "The plan was to run and win the Lexus, and try to sneak into the Cup without getting too much of a penalty," Weir told TVN. [h=2]Melbourne Cup Form Guide[/h]The stage is set for the 154th running of the Melbourne Cup. Click here to explore Grandstand's interactive guide to the 24 horses chasing Australian racing's greatest prize. "We hope the horse pulls up well (from Derby Day) and we're looking forward to Tuesday." In the Herbert Power Protectionist - who won the Group Two Prix Kegorlay in France over 3,000m earlier this year - carried 59kg compared to Signoff's 53kg. In the Cup he will gain a kilo on Signoff, carrying 56.5kg compared to 51.5kg for the locally-trained galloper. [h=2]Steady as she goes for Cup field after barrier draw[/h] PHOTO: Melbourne Cup chance Fawkner ® finished a close second to winner Adelaide (L) last start in the Cox Plate.(AAP: Tracey Nearmy) There have been few surprises the morning after the barrier draw, with no stories of horses under the microscope for fitness for Tuesday's race. There will be 11 internationally-trained runners out of 24 in this year's race - equalling the record number from 2011 - with many pundits tipping the overseas raiders to complete an historic treble after wins by Japan's Admire Rakti in the Caulfield Cup and Ireland's Adelaide in the Cox Plate. Topweight Admire Rakti remains the favourite for the race after drawing barrier eight, but the only horse to carry 58.5kg to victory under metric weights was Think Big in 1975. One of the key local hopes of stopping the international surge is the Robert Hickmott-trained Fawkner, which drew barrier nine for the Cup.

Being drawn toward the middle gives (jockey) Nick Hall a great chance to get the horse where he wants him, put him to sleep and get a great run in transit.

Nick Williams, speaking for Fawkner owner Lloyd Williams

Nick Williams, son of owner Lloyd Williams, has rated Fawkner the best of the local horses and said he was pleased with the draw. "He's drawn well, there's a huge run into the first turn ...that should give most a chance to sort themselves out," he told TVN. "Being drawn toward the middle gives (jockey) Nick Hall a great chance to get the horse where he wants him, put him to sleep and get a great run in transit." Fawkner comes into the race off the back of a strong second place finish in the Cox Plate, a similar profile to last year's winner, the Gai Waterhouse-trained Fiorente. Fawkner carried 59kg in the Cox Plate, compared to the 57kg he has in the Cup. [h=2]Irish hopes of Cup glory rest with Mutual Regard[/h] Former Melbourne Cup jockey Johnny Murtagh has trained two horses for the race, Royal Diamond (drawn six) and Mutual Regard (barrier 12). "Both horses stay the trip," Irish trainer Murtagh told TVN. "I'd say they'll probably roll forward (at the start). We just need a bit of luck.

We just need a bit of luck. I just hope both jockeys get them there to the 200m mark and may the best man win!

Trainer of Royal Diamond and Mutual Regard, Johnny Murtagh

"I just hope both jockeys get them there to the 200m mark and may the best man win! "They are in great form and they've settled in to Werribee very well." Mutual Regard remains the more well-credentialled of the two runners, carrying 55kg after winning the Group Two Ebor Handicap over 2816m at York in August. The six-year-old has run five times over the Cup distance for two wins and two second placings and will have three-time Melbourne Cup-winning jockey Damien Oliver on board. It is also strong on firm tracks, and with a Cup day forecast of fine and 29 degrees, he may get conditions to suit.