Bailey's betting diary

[Blazing Bailey]

I have always thought about starting one of these personal threads so now that the flat season is drawing to a close and the jumps game is starting to kick into gear I thought I would get this underway now ahead of Champions Day at Ascot and Cheltenham's first meeting of the year next weekend. I am going to be backing horses in pretty much all forms of the game (jumps, flat & AW) but each discipline will have their own rules which I will detail below. STAKING & BANK I will stick with a progressive level stakes betting plan and if I end up at a minus 100 points bank, then I will stop posting selections in that discipline. My stakes plan will be as follows: Below +25 points = 1 point 25-50 = 2 points 51-100 = 4 points 101 - 200 = 8 points 201 - 400 = 16 points and so on. I do give myself an option to put a half stake bet on but that is only if there is some level of doubt over the selection but it is worth a risk nevertheless. I use this mainly in cases where I have a hunch or I cant explain a couple of bad runs but the horse has excellent older form or smaller things as the horse not having run so far in the season. BETTING METHODS Flat - This is my main money earner and all my selections are based on RPR's and Topspeed ratings with other factors then taken into account especially racing style, track style and draw. I focus on handicaps (C4+) and group races along with the odd 2yo race or conditions race here and there. My best form normally coincides with the ground being consistently good or better and the simpler tracks (Newbury, Ascot, Donny etc) are usually my happiest hunting grounds and quirky tracks (Goodwood, Epsom, York) are generally where I struggle a little. I usually wont have much of a write up for flat horses because my workings are all based on figures but if there is something worth knowing I will try and post it up. Jumps - This is how I first got into the game and whilst it isnt as profitable for me, I find it far more enjoyable to review the races and watch too. Over the jumps I dont have any shortcuts (unfortunately) and I just pour through all the information I can find on the post from past form and come up with selections from there. I tend to focus more on C3 races and above mainly because it takes me a lot longer to go through the card and also to do the write-ups themselves. Again I prefer the big handicaps but I do think you can find some decent price winners in 4-6 runner races so I will look at those every now and then too. AW - This is a mixed bag for me and I am trying to improve my betting in this area. Again I stick to C3+ handicaps and group races. Theoretically it should be my bread and butter due to how I review the races but I can find them a little unpredictable. I will be working on them the same was I do with the flat but I will primarily be looking for handy horses especially around Lingfield due to the congestion you can find. I havent reviewed any races from the new surface at Wolverhampton so I will keep an open mind at that track until I have done more research. ODDS Primarily I will be using the main highstreet bookies and their BOG concession. I will post the occasional Betfair price if I think it is too big to ignore. I will ALWAYS be posting the prices I have taken which is normally the night before in most cases. Sometimes the price will end up being bigger in the morning and sometimes it will be shorter but given my other commitments its the only way I will have the time to post it up, especially during the week. If there is anything else I think of or something I have forgotten, I will come back to this post and amend it. So here it goes! :hope

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Probably not the greatest day of punting to kick off the thread given the track and the ground but we shall see! York 2.20 - Soviet Rock 11/2 Bet365 - 1 point 3.30 - Spinatrix 16/1 Betvictor - 1 point - She will love these conditions and despite her increasing mark she will be tough to beat. 3.30 - Ashpan Sam 28/1 Betvictor - 1 point - Solid soft ground form again and underestimated if back to his best. 3.30 - Rene Mathis 28/1 Betvictor - 0.5 points - May just find this trip on the short side but worth chancing. 5.20 - Chain of Events - 20/1 - William Hill - 1 Point 5.20 - Lungarno Place - 12/1 - Betfred - 0.5 points - Lowest rated of my selections but progressive and handles soft. Worth a chance. 5.20 - Mystery Bet - 20/1 - Betfred - 0.5 points - Now tipped up by Hugh Taylor and his column says it all. Form in general is inconclusive but has done really well on soft and that form puts him in the picture. Chepstow (all 0.5points due to not having a run this season) 4.20 - Dormello Mo - 4/1 Betvictor I was hoping there was going to be more rain overnight but it is forecast to rain again for a couple of hours before this race starts. Nicholls has a good record in this race (4 times since 2007 I believe) and the overall profile of his form suggests that he is more than capable of this mark. The ground was probably too quick at Newbury on his last start but that form has worked out quite well, he hosed up at Sandown in a weak race that a couple of the horses further back have done OK but nothing spectacular and he was running another big race when his stamina over 19f on heavy ebbed away. Nicholls has started the season well and he is sure to have him fit enough to win if he is good enough. 4.55 - Boondooma 7/2 Skybet & Cloud Creeper 5/1 Hills Boondooma has plenty of form to show that he is capable from this mark from his decent 5th at Cheltenham where he fell in a bit of a hole up the hill after travelling strongly all the way through to his 6th in a Grade 3 at Sandown in a race that was worked out exceptionally. The 2 races he won in between were weak affairs and he won in the manner he should have but those two races I detailed above look like very strong pieces of form and there could be more to come. The use of the claimer may be a suggestion that there are other races on the agenda for the horse but either way I still like his chances. Cloud Creeper is a horse I have followed on a couple of occasions. He didnt fire on good ground LTO and he can be excused his Haydock defeat as he was hampered by a faller. Looking at his other form (or even the Fontwell race on good) it all suggests that he is capable from this mark and he will go one better at somepoint. I think the current good to soft ground is probably ideal for him but he wouldnt mind it softer either and Hobbs horses are in pretty decent nick too. There a couple other I would just like to mention in this race who might also not be badly handicapped. Get It On has some solid form and may not have finished winning over hurdles yet. I do think this trip on this ground is likely to stretch him a little especially as his most recent two wins over this trip have been slowly run with sprint finishes which suit him. If this race becomes tactical it may just play into his hands. Colebrooke is a difficult horse to work out. He ran a blinder at Aintree and if that form is anything to go on he will be a huge force here but he may have been slightly flattered in that race as well (led a slowly run affair) and Skelton has given the leg up to a young claimer who hasnt been close in any of her races for him in the last 14 days. I suspect there may be another day for this horse.