British Champions Series - National Hunt Style

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style 2.35 Kempton: William Hill Christmas Hurdle (2m) Faugheen who won at Ascot a few weeks ago returns to England for his next prep race on the way to the Cheltenham Festival in March. He's a general 2/1 shot for the Champion Hurdle so should win todays race without much fuss at all. The Champion looks a 3 horse race at the moment with Faugheen, Jezki and The New One the only real contenders at this stage. Irving lines up and will test the favourite to a certain extent i'm sure, followers will know i like Irving a lot and he should be unbeaten this season so far. He won well enough up at Newcastle last time but i'm nor sure he has the jumping ability to test Faugheen. The track will suit him there is no doubt about that and the ground has dried out nicely. I expect the pair to battle it out and the fav to just pull clear on the run-in. Selection: 10pts Faugheen 4/9 bet365 __________________________ 3.10 Kempton: King George VI Chase (3m) The big race of the xmas period is no doubt the King George at Kempton and i have a fair bet on Silviniaco Conti at 7/2 already at risk and not much has happened since the Betfair Chase at Haydock that has changed my mind. Its a top class field and the inclusion of Champagne Fever makes it very interesting. First time at 3m for front running grey and if Cue Card also attempts to lead we could be in for a burn up here and that will make the task easier for Conti to pick up the pieces late on. I'm sure Ruby won't get into a battle with Cue Card so the tactics may be crucial here. Al Ferof looked good at Ascot but i'm thinking he's a Ryanair type and best when fresh. I wouldn't put anyone off Dynaste or Menorah and at around 8/1 they look fair value. Already backed; Selection: King George, Kempton: 2pts Silviniaco Conti 7/2 >Bet365 also 1pt Dynaste 8/1 bet365

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style Update

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style 1.40 Kempton: Desert Orchid Chase (2m) Down to 5 runners now that Claret Cloak is out and a tricky little contest with all of them holding some sort of chance. The fav is Balder Success which is a little surprising as he hasn't won in three starts this season and is becoming frustrating to me. On a going day he can look very decent but interesting that his win here at Kempton was over 2m4f. Hinterland ran well on his first run to finish third, he wore a hood for the first time then and if it works again he will be dangerous. Module shouldn't be left out of calculations just because of his penalty, he needs to bounce back from a couple of iffy runs lately but ha the class and experience required. Selections 3pts Hinterland 5/2 bet365 1pt Module 13/2 bet365 _______________________ 2.35 Chepstow: Coral Welsh National (3m5f 110yds) Saw Shotgun Paddy last year at the Festival and again at Newbury on his seasonal bow which was over hurdles and a warm up for this race. Carries top weight but i don't think this is a quality renewal and i like horses targeted for races. I would dismiss anything that came out of the Hennessy for another month and that leaves the likes of Hawkes Point and Mountainous as dangers in my book. Selections: 2pts EW Shotgun Paddy 10/1 >bet365 1pt Mountainous 12/1 bet365 :ok

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style Ive been looking at the ante-post markets for the Festival and was surprised in the lack of depth in the championship races and i think all of the current favourites look pretty solid so i'm backing all them in a lucky 15 and on their own for something to look forward to. Champion Hurdle: Faugheen 5/4 PP Champion Chase: Sprinter Sacre 11/4 PP World Hurdle : More Of That 7/2 PP Gold Cup: Silviniaco Conti 3/1 PP 3pts win on each horse 1pt Lucky 15

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style 2.40 Kempton: Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (2m5f) The usual competitive stuff for these handicaps and a couple at bigger prices worth taking a chance on i think. Dell Arca is a classy sort who won the Greatwood Hurdle last year and has been tried over 3m. This could be just the ticket and the yard continue to run well. I also like Saffron Wells from the Neil King stable. he went into my notebook last season as a horse to look at in bigger handicaps than he had been contesting and thought he ran well at Aintree in October. Placed last time out and the yard are flying. Selections: 1pt Win Dell Arca 10/1 bet365 1pt Win Saffron Wells 12/1 betfred

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style Three races this weekend, i'ma way on holiday for a week so i'll get these up early. 1.50 Ascot: OLBG Mares Hurdle (3m) A nice renewal of the Mares race over three miles here and while its not full of quality it certainly is competitive unlike many of the big hurdle races around at the moment. Caroles Spirit is the top rated mare in the field and will have plenty of supporters and the likes of Mischievous Millie and Land Of Vic have to be respected. I like two of the up an coming mares in Bitofapuzzle and Dark Spirit and they look worth an interest to me. The latter recently ran up against Aurore D'Estruval and ran with plenty of credit while Bitofapuzzle is trying 3m for the first time and is very lightly raced and has bags of scope. Selections: 2pts Bitofapuzzle 9/2 Skybet 1pt Dark Spirit 7/1 Skybet 3.00 Ascot: Clarence House Chase (2m1f) The return of Sprinter Sacre is what everyone wants to see here and i don't think he will disappoint. On his bets form would best form he would be well odds on and while i don't think we can expect that i think he will be good enough to dispose of Dodging Bullets and the Evens with Coral looks good to me. Selection: 5pts Sprinter Sacre Evens (Coral) 2.05 Haydock: Champion Hurdle Trial (2m) Obviously The New One has nothing to fear here but the odds are too short to get interested from a betting point of view. The Champion Hurdle field is disappointing from a depth point of view this season. We have The New One at around 5/2 for Cheltenham and the next English runner is something like 33/1 which brings in Iriving and Vaniteux which have been brushed aside already. Bertimont looks the only possibly danger tomorrow but he won't like the heavy ground so it has to be a no bet race.

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style 2.05 Doncaster: OLBG Mares Hurdle (2m) Not the best renewal we have ever seen when you think Annie Power won this last year off 165 and had Cockney Sparrow in the line up off 147. Best rated here is Analifet on 145 and comes over from the Willie Mullins yard and Ruby Walsh takes the trip too. She needs a change of fortune after two poor displays so far this season but has some very good novice form to fall back on in this company. Princess Leya was in front of the favourite last time out so also has to be respected. Pass The Time is the mount of AP, only rated 131 which shouldn't be good enough to win this Grade 2 event while the two novices at the bottom step up in class and it will be interesting to see how they get on. Selection: 2pts Analifet 11/4 bet365 1.50 Cheltenham: BetBright Cup Chase (3m1f) Once again we have Dynaste trying the extended 3m here and his price has now become very tempting, he's drifted out to 3/1 and thats too big to ignore for a horse of his ability. The opposition looks to rest between Many Clouds who had a really hard race in the Hennessy and apart from the odd superstar Hennessy winners tend to have a mediocre end of season so for that reason alone i'll swerve him. Smad Place is respected, i've always liked him and is a very consistent sort. Given a break since Newbury but just have question marks about anything from that race. Selection 5pts Dynaste 3/1 bet365 3.35 Cheltenham: Cleeve Hurdle (3m) A race down the years that Big Bucks often used as a prep for the World Hurdle and this year we have just 6 runners going to post and 4 of them have a squeak. Reve De Sivola won well at Ascot but is not the same horse here while Cole Harden is pretty exposed now in this type of race. He will no doubt lead for a long way. The two to concentrate on are Saphir Du Rheu who switches back to hurdles after a couple of mishaps over fences and Un Temps Pour Tout who makes his long awaited return after injury. I love the Pipe runner and backed him ante-post for the supreme last year but on this occasion i think Saphir should prove good enough and then connections will have to think about the World Hurdle rather than the RSA. Selection: 3pts Saphir Du Rheu 5/2 bet365

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style Update

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style 4 races this weekend; Denman Chase, New Betfair Hurdle, New Game Spirit Chase, New Mares Hurdle at Warwick 4 Grade 1 races in Ireland on Sunday so the ante-post markets should liven up a bit too. :ok

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style 3.35 Newbury: Betfair Hurdle (2m110yds) Extremely competitive and probably one of the best handicaps of the year along with the Greenwood Hurdle at Cheltenham. Usually throws up a young progressive sort and the last three years we have seen My Tent Or Yours, Zarkandar and Splash Of Ginge prevail. You have to go back further than ten years to find a horse who has carried over 11st2lbs to victory here so it could be worth looking at Fascino Rustico, On Tour and possibly Balgarry as likely bets. I do like the Skelton runner and he was so unlucky last season when with Paul Nicholls, he looks an even better horse now as is definitely better than a 135 horse in my opinion. He travels well which is what you need here in this big field. Balgarry is from the Pipe yard and look dot be on the way back at Sundown last time while On Tour has won 3 on the bounce and not stopped improving yet. Selections: 3pts Fascino Rustico 14/1 Paddy Power 1pt Balgarry/On Tour both 16/1 Ladbrokes _________________________________________ 3.00 Newbury: Game Spirit Chase (2m1f) Only 5 runners and all about if Sire De Grugy is fit enough to do himself justice. One thing for sure is that Cheltenham in March is when it really matters so do we really want to back him 4/5 here? Well win or lose i don't. Of the others we have a rejuvenated Mr Mole and he will do for me, i saw Sire De Grugy turned over by a JP McManus horse last year (Kid Cassidy) so maybe he can do us a favor here. Selection: 2pts Mr Mole 3/1 bet365

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style 2.25 Newbury: Denman Chase (3m) 6 runners and last years winner Harry Topper lines up with conditions to suit, he has two poor performances to put behind him and maybe worth watching here before getting involved again. No big stars have entered, we have had 4 winners rated over 170 since 2007 and thats not going to happen here so it may be worth taking a chance on the novice Coneygree for trainer Mark Bradstock. He has done nothing wrong and was only beaten once over hurdles and that was in the Neptune behind At Fishers Cross. He has started his chasing career well and will love this test of stamina on a course that is ideal. Of the others i like Taquin Du Seuil, lots of ability but the yard were wrong for a while but are now flying, he could show improved form. Selections: 2pts Coneygree 7/2 bet365 1pt Taquin Du Seuil 9/2 Skybet _____________________________________ 2.40 Warwick: OLBG Mares Hurdle (2m5f) The latest in the Mares series and not a strong renewal if i'm honest. The top one Glens Melody won here last season and has had this targeted on her way to the big one at the Festival where she finished second to Quevega last season. She has 10b in hand of the Henderson runner Mayfair Music and the nearest rival on ratings is Mickie trained by Henry Daly and she has been chasing so far this season without much success. To be honest i cant see much point in opposing Glens Melody and will look at the prices later to see if they are worth getting involved with. Selection: 3pts Glens Melody Evens bet365 *Added bet for Glens Melody 7pm

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style Decent day at last:ok

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style 3.35 Wincanton: Kingwell Hurdle (2m) Irving will start favourite here and quite rightly so in my opinion. We will have to forgive him his last run when he pulled up at Kempton behind Faugheen but on balance i think he has the best form in the book. Sign Of A Victory is respected from the Henderson camp and Blue Heron has done little wrong and deserves his shot at a Graded victory. I expected Irving to be a shade of odds on so 6/4 is pretty good value to me. Selection 8pts Irving 6/4 Stan James _______________________________________ 2.20 Haydock: Rendlesham Hurdle (3m) Another opportunity for At Fishers Cross to show that he is back something like his best after a frustrating time of it. I heard Rebecca Curtis talking in the week and she sounded pretty bullish and her yard are doing well at the minute. He was beaten 6 lengths at Leopardstown last time and although he was the favourite i don't think it was that bad a run. He doesnt meet anything here of that class and his nearest danger on ratings hasn't ran for nearly a year and will probably need it. Selection: 5pts At Fishers Cross 11/10 Stan James

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style 2.55 Haydock: Grand National Trial (3m5f) Very competitive renewal here and it will take some getting as per usual with the soft ground predicted. I'm keen to avoid anything that has had a hard race in the last month so i'm counting out Samstown, Trustan Times and Benbens from the off. I like the look of AP riding Monbeg Dude, he will stay all day and jumps these fences well, i can see him being driven up the run in and getting involved. Selection: 2pts EW Monbeg Dude 6/1 Paddy Power ______________________________________

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style 3.50 Ascot: Ascot Chase (2m5f) Tricky little event is this with three or four possible winners on their best form. The trip is the key here i think and i'm hoping for a return to form for the Nicky Henderson mare Ma Filleule. Impressive last season but had slightly disappointed this term although going down to Sam Winner is no disgrace. The yard are going better now and with the allowance i can see her outstaying one or two of these. Ptit Zig is respected of course and Ballycasey travels over for the Mullins/Walsh combo but both are poor value. I'm not a fan of Balder Success really but he does the one that could cause the selection the most problems and worth a saver at the prices. Selections: 3pts Ma Filleule 9/2 Bet365 1pt Balder Success 4/1 bet365

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style 2.55 Newcastle: Bettered Eider Chase (4m1f) Tough looking race and the fancied Shotgun Paddy is a favourite of mine. Ive been a bit disappointed with him this season and i'm not sure he's value here off top weight. Ive decided to go with two in the middle of the handicap that are in fair form and not too badly handicapped yet have a little scope. The Twiston-Davies runner Count Guido Deiro is only 8 and won well in the mud at Lingfield before finishing 4th to Unioniste at Sandown. Its decent form and off a mark just 6lbs higher than his last win he looks fairly treated. Ive always liked Herdsman and thought a good staying handicap was within his grasp. Not sure why Trevor Hemmings got rid of him but new trainer Brian Ellison saw the first chink of light last time out at Catterick since he had him. He was second that day and is now just 3lbs higher than his last winning mark and has the very good Brian Hughes on top. Selections: 1pt EW Herdsman 16/1 Bet365 1pt EW Count Guido Deiro 20/1 Bet365

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style First Batch of Cheltenham races Supreme Novice Hurdle Verdict: Both Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson think they have a star on their hands with Douvan and L’Ami Serge and I’d be surprised if something else in the line up is better than these pair. Douvan is very short in the betting so the value has to be with the Henderson horse who did win the Tolworth and the stables only Grade 1 winner. L’Ami Serge 2pts 7/2 Betfred Arkle Chase Verdict: Exciting race in prospect and I don’t think there is any doubt that the odds on favourite Un De Sceaux will go hard from the gate and hope to get all of his rivals in trouble by half way. If it comes off he will win well but I’m not interested at around 4/6. Josses Hill has the class but has not looked a natural as yet over fences and maybe an each-way punt on one of the outsiders is the way to go. Sgt Reckless and Three Kingdoms are useful sorts at big prices and if pushed I’d side with the Mick Channon horse. Sgt Reckless 1pt EW 25/1 Stan James Champion Hurdle Verdict: Ruby has picked Faugheen ahead of the ‘Fly’ and you have to respect that, on form he’s a bit to find due to the inferior opposition he has put aside this season but all the vibes are that this horse is something special. I think he will win alright and The New One can chase him home. Faugheen 3pts 5/4 Skybet Mares Hurdle Verdict: Annie Power is very short at around 4/7 and barring accidents will win this without much fuss. As a betting proposition we need to look elsewhere and my idea of a value bet is L’Unique trained by Alan King. She does need decent ground to show her best and on the first day she might get it. L’Unique 1pt EW 20/1 Stan James

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style Champion Chase Verdict: Really looking forward to this years renewal with so many if and buts about the race. I love Sprinter Sacre but cant back him after his illness despite his strong claims. I think Champagne Fever will go close once again at the Festival but just think Sire De Grugy will a gear too many up the hill. 2pts Sire De Grugy 7/2 bet365 Coral Cup Verdict: As usual it’s a wide-open race and it’s 8/1 the field. Handicap experts Jonjo O’Neill and Venetia Williams need watching with Goodwood Mirage and Baradari but I will plump for Activial who is a model of consistency and not finished improving yet. 1pt EW Activial 10/1 Paddy Power RSA Chase Verdict: Not the strongest RSA I have ever seen and should concern the top 4 in the market really. Don Poli has chosen this race ahead of other engagements when he heard Coneygree was going for the Gold Cup and I prefer The Young Master here for the Festival winning yard of Neil Mulholland and jockey Barry Geraghty. Improving hand over fist and could have found a good opportunity here. 2pts The Young Master 11/2 Paddy Power Neptune Verdict: It’s a wide open Neptune this year and difficult to choose between the Irish contingent especially the pair from the Mullins camp. Ruby has picked Nichols Canyon although Gigginstown would have had Bryan Cooper anyway? I like Beast Of Burden at the prices, he will be better over further in time but the yard had a winner on day one and this one is good value Beast Of Burden EW 14/1 Ladbrokes

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style Day 3 Ryanair Verdict: I don’t like backing horses who go for races that haven’t been the original target, both Foxrock and Hidden Cyclone have been switched here and although respected I’m looking elsewhere. Don Cossack is very classy and has looked a much better horse this year and this could be his time to shine in the top grade. 2pts Don Cossack 9/2 >Paddy Power Plate Verdict: Not the strongest renewal in my opinion and a very open handicap. The Pipe runner is the fly in the ointment and has to be feared but doesn’t represent any value to me. Attaglance is a fresh horse and goes well here and looks sure to run a solid race at a fair price. 1pt EW Attaglance 12/1 >BetVictor World Hurdle Verdict: Very open renewal of the World Hurdle and the market is dominated by the Paul Nicholls pair Zarkandar and Saphir Du Rheu. Nothing really stands out to me and would rather take a chance on something at a bigger price. The Pipe horse Un Temps Pour Tout and old boy Reve De Sivola looks the best value. 1pt Un Temps Pour Tout 12/1 Coral 1pt EW Reve De Sivola 28/1 Stan James JLT Verdict: Only 9 runners line up here in the JLT which is surprising with the trip being adequate for most chasers. Vautour was brilliant last year when winning the Supreme and anything like that would see him go very close. Ptit Zig has impressed me and at the prices is just the value for me here. 2pts Ptit Zig 7/2 Ladbrokes

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style Gold Cup Verdict: I was all set to tip Silviniaco Conti this year as I do think he’s better equipped to deal with this race now. My mind has been changed by the addition of Coneygree into the line up and I do think he’s got the style of a Denman and can have most of these in trouble by the time they get to three out. He will stay all the way to the line and I think his tactics will upset Conti and Road To Riches who like to dictate. Djakadam is a big danger and I don’t think we have seen the best of him yet. 1pt EW Coneygree 10/1 Skybet Triumph Verdict: Peace And Co will be a short priced favourite to land this for Nicky Henderson and the yard also have Hargam and Top Notch. I must admit I have been impressed with Hargam and is twice the price so has to be the selection for me. 2pts Hargam 7/1 >William Hill County Hurdle Verdict: The Irish horses seem to hold all the aces here and both The Game Changer and Quick Jack look typical handicap plots to me and come from very shrewd operations indeed. For one at a bigger price Hawk High looks worth a small each way bet. He has course form and loves the better ground and could be still improving. 1pt EW Hawk High 20/1 >Paddy Power Albert Bartlett Verdict: Black Hercules looks to be the best of the Mullins quintet and will be hard to beat. Martello Tower is a big danger from Ireland and has to go close as does Value At Risk who was a close second here last time out on trials day. Caracci Apache looks to have plenty of improvement in him in what looks like a very open contest. 1pt EW Value At Risk 10/1 Stan James

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style Betfred Bowl Holywell looks to be on the upgrade over fences and looks very interesting here. He was a good fourth in the Gold Cup and was still in with a chance turning for home. He likes decent ground, which he should get here and goes well on flat tracks. He won the Mildmay Novices Chase here last season from Don Cossack so has course form and has the beating of Ma Filleule and Silviniaco Conti on previous form. Selection: Holywell 8pts 2/1 bet365

[BillyHills]

Re: British Champions Series - National Hunt Style Grand National ...........I like horses who habitually do well at the same place time after time. Saint Are fits that bill and comes here after a nice two-month break. He had to win his last race and win it well to get in this race and did so with the minimum of fuss. He ran well here around these fences in December when third to Oscar Time and has ran well in all four starts since joining Tom George. He’s been laid out for this and is decent value at 33/1 with bet365. Mon Parrain is one of those gut feelings you get when looking at a race. Jockey Sean Bowen only just qualified to ride in the race the other day and the young lad is on top of his game at the moment and could win on he stable donkey I reckon. The horse is no mug and got round ok in the Becher Chase this year and was second in the Topham in 2011. 50/1 with Skybet is too big for a Paul Nicholls runner. Selections: 1pt EW Saint Are 33/1 Stan James 1pt EW Mon Parrain 66/1 Bet365