Flat Racing > Saturday September 20th

[Aidymac]

Ayr 3:50 - William Hill Ayr Gold Cup(HERITAGE HANDICAP) (2) 6f There are many dangers to my selection and one of those is Alben Star who has been well backed in the ante post market over the last few weeks. The 6 year old finished 2nd in the Stewards' Cup at Goodwood behind Intrinsic and followed that up with a second place finish behind Tropics in a Listed race at Newmarket. That sort of form is up there with the best in the race but he has to defy a mark of 109 which could be tough, although top apprentice Jack Garritty takes off a handy 5 pounds. I am quite happy to have a small each-way investment on Blaine though, the form of his latest win has been boosted several times which has to be a major positive. Blaine - 1 Point each-way @ 16/1 Betfred - 5 Places Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/ayr-gold-cup-betting-blaine-is-the-answer-if-you-want-a-tasty-each-way-bet

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing > Saturday September 20th Ayr 2:40 - William Hill Ayr Silver Cup(HANDICAP) (2) 6f Redvers is the current favourite for the race at around the 9/1 mark in general and the Ed Vaughan charge was desperately unlucky at Ascot last time out. Redvers traded as low as 1.01 in-running but the Godolphin owned Safety Check got up on the line to spoil the party. The drop back to 6f has to be massively in his favour after getting collared late on over 7f last time out so he must have a good shout. My money is gone on Foxtrot Romeo here personally, a horse that has the scope to go on improving. He was a former pattern class horse and there have been signs lately that he is coming back to near his best for a yard in form. Foxtrot Romeo - 1 Point each-way @ 12/1 William Hill - 5 Places Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/ayr-silver-cup-betting-the-fox-can-trot-home-for-the-marco-botti-yard

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing > Saturday September 20th Newbury 2:20 - Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes(Group 2) (1) 6f 8yds The in form Mark Johnston runs Jungle Cat here and the booking of William Buick is a positive worth noting. He has been very consistent this season and was placed in the Coventry Stakes, placed in the July Stakes, placed in the Richmond Stakes and was just collared in the Gimcrack. I see no reason why he won't be bang there again come the line given his consistency. I think the favourite will be very hard to beat, especially with Ryan Moore booked to ride but I see each-way value in Toocoolforschool who has shown blistering early speed in his races and with that in mind the drop back in trip ought to suit massively. He could string the field out here and could be hard to peg back. Toocoolforschool - 1 Point each-way @ 20/1 Bet Victor Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/newbury-mill-reef-stakes-betting-toocoolforschool-can-teach-the-bookies-a-lesson

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat Racing > Saturday September 20th

Highest Odds at Marathonbet

2.40 AYR 1PT E/W MEZZOTINT 28/1 BOYLESPORTS~ Very handy mark drop back in trip interesting better handicaped than most of these looks to a decent e/w chance~1PT E/W FARLOW 25/1 BET

>365

~Ran well in Bronze cup last year not the best runs lto but drop in trip will suit trainer does well in these races jock was on horse for last win 3.50 AYR 1PT E/W MINALLSA 25/1

>BETFAIR

SPORTSBOOK 6PLACES~Won a 29 grand race in Ireland lto could be a lot more to come from this horse.~ 1PT E/W SUPPLICANT 22/1

>BV

~Really fancy this horse to go close looks on a very lenient mark to me G2

winner

strong yard very good claimer on board trainer has very strong hand in both silver and gold cup would not surprise me if he won both!

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing > Saturday September 20th 15.15 Ayr: Doonside Cup (Listed), 10f - Abseil: Progressive early in the season, culminating in strong Epsom success over 1m 1/2f. Three rather disappoint performances subsequently, looked outpaced and not up for it. Need to improve to be competitive here over new trip. 10f looks possible on pedigree. Gabrial: Quick ground will suit, decent recent run over 12f at Chester. Improved nicely from 4f out and looked in with big chance but outstayed in final furlong. Has never been placed over anything further than 9f but ran in hot raced against excellent rivals, and been largely competitive. Mirsaale: Won 10f Handicap as 3yo, not improved over winter and poor this season. Tried over further, drop in trip might help to find back to something like form. Sennockian Star: Good, consistent handicapper over the years. 10F and ground suit, won at Ayr before. Drops in trip after two runs over further. Need to be back to best, to have chance to land first Listed race. Sky Hunter: Progressive 3yo in France, 3rd behind Intello in French Derby, won Listed race over 12f subsequently. Didn't show anything in two starts this year. Needs to be improved after break. However remains of interest as he's potentially the most talented sort in this field. Treasure The Ridge: Hugely progressive lately. Won couple of races on the bounce, big class 2 handicap recently, coming from impossible position. Surely possible to progress further but loads to find on ratings and this much tough assignment on the weights. Mutatis Mutandis: Only won maiden as a 2yo, decent performance in Newbury Listed race but looked out off depth lto. Needs to prove that she is good enough. Verdict: If Sky Hunter could find back to his best 3yo form, he'll be obviously hard to beat in this field. But there are plenty of question marks and his current price is fair at best, so makes sense to take him on. Only one horse really makes appeal to do so in my mind: Gabrial: Clear return to form recently at Chester, just faded in final furlong over trip stretching his stamina. Drop in trip clearly to suit, and while he hasn't a good record over 10f, I've no doubt he gets the trip and if you look through his forms, he has come against some excellent horses, but won nicely a Handicap at Meydan and is consistent on Listed/premium handicap level. He finds conditions to suit and should give the favourite plenty to think about. He's the value in the race in my mind. Gabrial @ 5/1 Ladbrokes – 3pts win

[stewartd14]

Re: Flat Racing > Saturday September 20th AYR GOLD CUP After the events of yesterday, I think it's going to be key to be drawn against either rail, with all likelihood, the stand side (high) being favoured. With that in mind, my 4 darts incorporate 2 drawn high which I really like, along with a couple drawn low who will no doubt be town along by Hamza. SUPPLICANT - Supplicant has now dropped to a really workable mark of 98, and it's a mark I feel he can certainly win off. This is a horse who beat Hot Streak in a weak Group 2 at the end of last season. Since then, he hasn't managed to reproduce his best, and his runs in handicaps this year haven't exactly set the world alight. However, Fahey is still confident that this horse retains his ability, and he has a plum draw today in 22. Hopefully young George Challoner can direct this horse across to the rails, sit just off the pace, and take the prize. AN SAIGHIDUR - Another who is ideally drawn in 23, and will be prominent and up with the pace. I'm a big big fan of Billy Lee who takes the ride, and whilst I think he has a lot to do off a mark of 103, it's not impossible, and if he can grab the golden highway, I think it could potentially be a 4-5 lb advantage. At the price, I think he's worth a punt. MINALISA - One of my selections drawn low. Stall 1, Ruwaiyan, will want to be held up so I fancy Minalisa to grab the prime spot on the rails. She will likely be taken along by Hamza, but if the rail is as advantageous as it looked to be yesterday, I think Minalisa could go close if the low drawn horses can keep up with those drawn high. She runs here off a mark of 101, which I certainly think os reasonable. She was just finishing too late at Goodwood 2 starts back off 103, and she ran a speed rating of 104 that day. That was on the back of a speed rating of 108 at Newcastle, so I don't think there's a question of her being badly handicapped. Fran Berry takes the ride, and I think she'll fare well of the low drawn runners. HAMZA - My final selection is likely to attempt to make all up the far side rail, and if he grabs the spot on the rail, that'll be an advantage amongst the low drawn runners. Well enough handicapped, Smullen on board, and won't be far away of those drawn low. Again, as with Minalisa, the big question is whether those drawn low (even on the rails) can keep up with those drawn high. 2 pts e/w SUPPLICANT @ 20/1 1 pt e/w AN SAIGHIDUR @ 25/1 0.5 pt e/w MINALISA @ 25/1 0.25 pt e/w HAMZA @ 28/1 All Bet 365, 5 places

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing > Saturday September 20th 16.05 Newbury: Class 3 Nursery, 7f - Polarisation: Won Ayr maiden nicely drawing well clear inside final furlong. Things went too quickly nto in hot handicap. Should be suited by additional furlong. Ground unknown. Silver Quay: Good winner at Salisbury, Competitive in much higher class lto, fine performance. Not sure if drop in trip will suit, but also not impossible to do so on soft ground to suit. Harlequin Striker: Got finally off the mark in maiden lto at Epsom. Overcoming wide draw and won well from front. Opening mark looks fair. Soft ground a question mark but looks big and scopy. L'Etacq: Won 5f Handicap at Brighton, not up to it subsequently. Hard to fancy here. Little Palaver: Still maiden, decent efforts in all starts, needs to improve on first Handicap start. Mark looks fair. Looking Good: Fair maiden form, improved for step up in trip to 7f at Sandown, came with big run approaching final furlong when badly hampered. Deserves another chance of 1lb lower. Verdict: Hannon's Silver Quay seems the pick on form and might well turn out too good for this lot, however the drop in trip might count against him. Polarisation is better than when seen last time, the ground is a question mark though. Overall it looks an open enough race and that gives the bottom weight Looking Good a chance to feature strongly. This Makfi filly was unlucky on her latest run when she was coming with a strong run just to be badly hampered in the closing stages. The mark looks fair enough and she could easily turn out to be better than the mark of 70, what she is rated currently. Looking Good @ 11/2 Ladbrokes – 2pts win

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing > Saturday September 20th 10.40 Parx: Pennsylvania Derby (Grade 2), 9 furlongs It's the return of California Chrome today. He came close to become the first Triple Crown winner in ages, but he failed at the final hurdle at Belmont, as we all know now. Things didn't go to plan from there on. Injury problems made life tough. But he is back now for an ambitious autumn campaign, which will culminate in a bid for glory in the Breeder's Cup Classic. Today his first run on his way to Santa Anita - the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby seems an ideal opportunity. But it won't be quite as easy. There are some serious rivals in the line-up. California Chrome: Class act, won over this trip, Kentucky Derby-Preakness winner. Didn’t stay Belmont trip, injured afterwards, back after break now. Candy Boy: Runner-up in West Virginia Derby lto. Decent performer on Grade level, without finding winning easy. Well beaten by Clifronia Chrome twice this year. Protonico: Lightly raced Giant’s Causeway son. Constantly improving, won Grade 3 at this track lto, tries this trip for the second time in his career, finished 3rd on sole start but on pedigree no problem. Bayern: Haskell winner when he got an easy lead. Impressive that day but couldn't follow up and when challenged for lead he is doing usually too much. Might not have his own way up on front here. Noble Moon: Lightly raced, still improvement left and not completely out of it. Has stamina to prove. Classic Giacnroll: Consistent decent performances this year, without winning. Went super close lto when runner-up to Protonico. Hasn’t fired over this trip yet but should be fine on pedigree. Tapiture: Won West Virginia Derby lto, staying on strongly. Tough and consistent sort, in with an obvious chance on form. C J’s Awesome: Front-runner, will challenge for lead and will force pace. Not up to this class. Verdict: If California Chrome is 100% fit, well then he’ll be hard to beat. It's that simple. I can see him getting the perfect race, nicely set up by the likely front-runners Bayern and CJA - as they are likely to be racing for the lead. Chrome can sit behind and make his usual move coming off the home bend. What does he find then is the question?! I believe his target is the Breeders Cup Classic, so his trainer will have left something to work on – mind you this is only a Grade 2 today. There is a general question mark over his fitness after a long season and recent injury problems. Therefore I think we can take him on, considering he is such a short price. I do really like the look of the lightly raced Protonico. Improving all the time, won at Graded level for the first time lto when scoring in the G3 Smarty Jones Stakes over 1m. That day he didn’t have an easy race, finding himself short of room on his way around the home at a crucial stage, and again when approaching the home straight. He shouldn't have had a chance to catch the leader at this point, he should have been finished. but somehow he got out into the clear and ran down the eventual runner-up, who looked moments before like a 1.01 shot on the in-running market on Betfair! He is clearly a seriously talented horse and while he tried today's trip only once before, in the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga, when beaten in a photo by two horses that came from off the pace, he shouldn't have a problem with the trip at all, as on pedigree he’ll get it alright. With more improvement to come, Protonico is capable of running a huge race for a big price. An even bigger price long shot is Classic Giacnroll. He doesn't look too likely to get his head in front against some top class opposition here. But it shouldn't be forgotten that he didn’t always got the best of runs in the past and his most recent performance, the runner-up effort in the Smarty Jones Stakes behind Protonico is noteworthy. A repeat would see him going close in my mind. That day he produced a lovely change of gear when slipping through on the inside approaching the home straight, while coming from almost last to look the winner until 50y out. He was probably a bit idling and didn't see the eventual winner coming. He tries the 9f trip again today, hasn't done too well over it in the past on pure form, but he should get it on pedigree and might be the one staying one from behind for an upset, as the likely quick pace should give a horse from off the pace a chance. Protonico @ 12/1 – 1pt win Bet365 Classic Giacnroll @ 33/1 1pt win Bet365

[stewartd14]

Re: Flat Racing > Saturday September 20th

Newbury 2:20 - Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes(Group 2) (1) 6f 8yds The in form Mark Johnston runs Jungle Cat here and the booking of William Buick is a positive worth noting. He has been very consistent this season and was placed in the Coventry Stakes, placed in the July Stakes, placed in the Richmond Stakes and was just collared in the Gimcrack. I see no reason why he won't be bang there again come the line given his consistency. I think the favourite will be very hard to beat, especially with Ryan Moore booked to ride but I see each-way value in Toocoolforschool who has shown blistering early speed in his races and with that in mind the drop back in trip ought to suit massively. He could string the field out here and could be hard to peg back. Toocoolforschool - 1 Point each-way @ 20/1 Bet Victor Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/newbury-mill-reef-stakes-betting-toocoolforschool-can-teach-the-bookies-a-lesson

Great call mate !

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing > Saturday September 20th

Great call mate !

Thanks Stewy.