a simple system for winning on away draws

[neilovan]

The first step in this process is to identify teams that make strong draw candidates. What characteristics must such a team possess ...? They have to be competitive and hard to beat. This is both a mental and physical state. These sorts of teams do not roll over and die when they concede a goal. They are also not really able to finish teams off when they go ahead I prefer to look at draw teams that are away from home..... These types of teams also need to show a history of draws in previous seasons. Lets look at some DRAWN game numbers The EPL has the lowest percentage of 0-0 1-1 and 2-2 draws (18%) French Ligue 1 has the highest percentage at (27%) Yet in the EPL we find the perfect candidate for away draws. Assume you are backing the away draw every week in 2014/2015 with a 1 unit bet Historically ...... 2013/2014 Everton 6 away draws at an average price of 2.55 to 1 You win 15.3 and lose 13 for 2.3 unit gain (12% ROI ). 2012/2013 Everton 9 away draws at an average price of 2.53 to 1 You win 22.7 and lose 10 for 12.77 unit gain (67% ROI ). 2011/2012 Everton 8 away draws at an average price of 2.56 to 1 You win 20.48 and lose 11 for 9.48 unit gain (49% ROI ). 2010/2011 Everton 8 away draws at an average price of 2.45 to 1 You win 19.6 and lose 11 for 8.6 unit gain (45% ROI ). These numbers are all freely available here (I just post the link for easy access to page http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/average-away-win-odds ) For you to win, the break even point is probably 5.5 :\ away draws by Everton. At odds of 2.55 to 1 , 5 draws wins you 12.75 units while you lose 14 units With Everton in away draws, one more piece of knowledge can be used. Looking at the TOP 8 versus TOP 8 stats it's reasonable to assume that they will lose to the league winners away. In 2013/2014 they lost 3-1 to Man City In 2012/2013 they lost 2-0 to Man United In 2011/2012 they lost 2-0 to Man City In 2010/2011 they lost 1-0 to Man United. So , on past track record you can avoid these games. It means you back Everton for the draw every week away for 17 or 18 games. You exclude the 1 or 2 games against the leagues best 2 teams ( for 2014/2015 Chelsea and Man City) So you are risking 17 or 18 units for the away season. Taking this even one step further you can remove Everton's away games against the bottom one or two teams from this system. In 2013/2014 they beat Fulham (1-3) In 2012/2013 they beat West Ham (1-2) In 2011/2012 they beat Bolton (0-2) and Blackburn (0-1) In 2010/2011 they beat Wolves(0-3) and Birmingham(0-2) So you are risking 16 to 17 units for the away season. Doing this over the last 4 seasons would have given you a BETTER than 43% average ROI for 4 years straight !!! Everton are not the only PERFECT DRAW candidates for betting. I will find another 2 or 3 more perfect candidates before the season start., and will post them here as well.

[Grex]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws Interesting approach, Neil. My main concern is that your analysis for Everton is based on a VERY small sample (4 seasons). I think you have to delve a lot deeper (e.g. 10 seasons) to demonstrate that it is unlikely to be just a statistical "blip"..... and then the logic behind the anomaly should be identified.... as you suggested - "They have to be competitive and hard to beat. This is both a mental and physical state. These sorts of teams do not roll over and die when they concede a goal. They are also not really able to finish teams off when they go ahead......" The problem is that these sort of criteria are not easy to evaluate statistically.... there is a lot of subjectivity involved. Not trying to be negative, just..... boring (as usual) :\. Good luck anyway :ok