Question about odds calculating and home advantage

[oses32]

I am looking for an advice how to calculate odds when we add home ground advantage. Let's say these examples (asians): In neutral ground -0,5 1.95 1.95 - what odds would be if team A plays at home (and the other way around) If we have -0,5 1.95 1.95 - team A plays at home, what odds would have been if team A plays away? I know that many times it's depends of many additional factors like how far is from one place to another or how one team plays away etc. But I am looking for general formula or method to calculate this

[lunatism]

Re: Question about odds calculating and home advantage

I am looking for an advice how to calculate odds when we add home ground advantage. Let's say these examples (asians): In neutral ground -0,5 1.95 1.95 - what odds would be if team A plays at home (and the other way around) If we have -0,5 1.95 1.95 - team A plays at home, what odds would have been if team A plays away? I know that many times it's depends of many additional factors like how far is from one place to another or how one team plays away etc. But I am looking for general formula or method to calculate this

Good question...it's a personal one though, you'll probably not get too many fair answers because you are essentially asking somebody how they compile their odds...furthermore, any idea that's posted on this thread could end up in the grubby hands of our favourite bookie :loon but let's see.... There are no true *neutral* grounds... There are lot's of different ways to do this, i'll go down the path of least resistance, and hopefully this will promote some research/thought for you... The first question you have to consider is your odds. How are you creating your odds? (rhetorical question....unless you want to detail your process on here...which we would all appreciate :p) During that process, if you aren't factoring in home/away form, I can't imagine that your odds would be very accurate. An example:

• Man Utd are playing at away against West Brom
• Overall Utd are good, while West Brom are poor:
  • West Brom (Total: Pl: 30, W: 5, D: 10, L: 15, G+: 46, G-: 50)
  • Man Utd (Total - Pl: 30, W: 17, D: 5, L: 8, G+:84, G-:18)

  [*]Based on that, you calculate that the odds should be +2 1.95 1.95 [*]Now you consider their "location" performance (so, United Away, West Brom at home)

  • West Brom (Pl: 15, W: 5, D: 8, L: 2, G+: 30, G-: 15)
  • Man Utd: (Pl: 15, W: 8, D: 2, L: 5, G+: 25, G-: 10)
• Red flag...Man Utd have much a stronger home record than away record

Out of context, you would not likely assign AH of +2 to either team in that second set of data. If you would not assign it out of context, there should be some kind of balance between the two. It's clear that +2 is too high, but you wouldn't necessarily make West Brom the favourites in the second one. Much more likely to go with +1 or +0.75 i'd say (based on average). Now that is a very very basic way of looking at it, and I wouldn't recommend using it at all...not ever! But it shows what kind of difference looking at home/away record can make to odds calculation (with AH in mind at least). It would be wise to do one/many of the following:

• Look at how the bookie handles it (make a note of WDL and G+/G-, and see what AH is assigned to teams)...they very generally follow patterns, if you can see them, you'll start to understand them
• Look at home many home wins/away wins exist in each league
• Look at the difference in % of home wins compared to away wins for each team..eg.
  • with above example...Man Utd have win records of 60% (home) and 53% (away), loss records of 20% (home) and 33% (away) (average 56% & 26%)
  • West Brom have win records of 33% (home) and 0% (away), loss records of 13% (home) and 87% (away) (average 16% and 50%)
  • you can see a discrepancy here:
    • not so much with Utd, who only stray from their average by an average of 5% (3%,4%,6%,7%)
    • but definitely with West Brom, who stray from their average by an average of 26.75% (17%,3%,50%,37%)

    [*]when you see discrepancies like that, you need to adjust the chances assigned to each team [*]in a basic way, you could increase home chance by 15%, and decrease away chances by 15% and then ensure your book is round [*]you could also do the same kind of thing with the league results, to see if the home bias is particularly strong in the league

I haven't exactly told you *how* to adjust, but i've suggested a couple of ways to identify home field advantage, hopefully this helps :ok Btw...this i'm writing this way too early in the morning, i don't know if my math will hold up to scrutiny...be nice :\