Flat Racing > Thursday May 22nd 2014

[calculus]

5:35 Goodwood - Heartsong (7/1 SkyBet) 1.5pts Win I’m genuinely very surprised at the price of this one in the betting, while it was by no means a great race that he won last time out at Doncaster it was the manner in which he did it that marked him down as a potentially very well handicapped horse for me. With a quarter of a mile to run he looked to be travelling much better than anything else but he was blocked off when making his challenge on two occasions and must have lost at the very least two lengths as a result. When blocked off on the second occasion there was only around half a furlong left to run and if you had backed him you would have been cursing your luck, however he was switched round horses and flew home to win by half a length; for me that was a seriously impressive performance. It is also worth noting that my selection was running off a mark of 84 this time last year and he is now rated a whole 16lbs lower than that, so he has to be potentially very well handicapped. A good bit of that drop in the weights came on the back of a fruitless spell on the AW over the winter, a surface he has never won on, and he then won on his first run back on turf. When you add into the mix that the Gallagher yard look to be hitting form with 2 wins and 2 places from their last 4 runners his chances look far better than that of a 7/1 shot. The favourite, Perfect Muse, looks way too short for me, as he has had a couple of similar opportunities since qualifying for handicaps and was beaten into second by quite exposed sorts on both of occasions, he has crept up the weights as a result and this is probably a bit tougher than the race he was second in last time out. In summary, I think my selection has outstanding claims and were it not for the fact that it is an apprentice race at Goodwood, where he will undoubtedly need some luck in running, I would have considered having a maximum bet on him. 4:25 Goodwood - Marsh Daisy (10/1 Ladbrokes) 1pt Win Looks to have been a very hot race she finished fourth in on her debut as the second place filly has gone on to win in listed company and the winner has gone on to be placed in the Cheshire Oaks. My selection showed a very likeable attitude to win by a short head at Ascot last time out and I think she was possibly caught out by the fact that her rival was brought with a challenge down the middle of the track, but when the two runners came closer together she really knuckled down and was probably value for a little bit more than the slim margin she won by. I also think it is worth noting that she is only 3 years old and was beating a 4 year old filly last time out and given the time of the year and the fact that she readily out battled her elder (with more race experience as well) shows she has a big engine in my opinion. She can only improve from that experience after just two career starts. Hughie Morrsion is not the type of trainer to go tipping at windmills with his horses and I think that he could have found a winnable handicap opportunity for this one off a mark of 87, a mark which could potentially take a big hit tomorrow even were she not to win, as she is up against a couple of 96 rated fillies, so I think the trainer must think she is up to listed class at least. It is a difficult race to call as there is limited form to go on, but I think my selection is a really likeable type and is capable of going close in this company. 5:10 Ayr - Le Chat D'Or (11/2 Paddy Power) 0.75pts Win Was a very consistent sort last season but only finished with one victory to his name, that win was over tomorrow’s course and distance on soft ground – conditions he is likely to get again tomorrow. I think his last run from last season when third at Nottingham off the same mark as tomorrow, beaten 1 length, was a fair indication that there could still be some races in him despite his raising mark. Particularly keen on the fact that he generally runs a very good race on his seasonal debut with a win and a second (beaten a short head) in the last two seasons. The two horses at the top of the market have question marks over them for me: Busatto, won well on the last two occasions but this is his third run in nine days and I am sceptical whether he can keep it going for much longer; Uncle Dermot, is similarly turned out again quickly after he was mightily impressive at this course just today and I would not be surprised if connections turn him out again under a penalty tomorrow after an 8 length romp, however he has never won off a mark this high and this will be the first time he has raced in Class 3 company in his 47 career starts thus far. The Micheal Dods yard have been firing on all cylinders so far this season and I think my selection is capable of continuing their fine run of form, I had him priced up around 4/1 or 9/2 so he is worth a small interest.