Aintree Ramblings

[Martin]

2:00 John Smith's Mildmay Novices' Chase I'm a strong believer that in races of 3 miles or more, proven stayers are the ones to go for and that is no different in this race. Admitedly, everyone who does something has to do it a first time but I feel better if I back a horse to do something he has done before. This comes in to play in the opening race tomorrow with a 3m 1f affair. Despite being a fan of Lacdoudal who has impressed of late, he, along with Limerick Boy, Captain Corelli and Chauvinist have not run over this trip or further and so are eliminated. Lacdoudal is certainly the biggest casulaty in terms of those favoured by the odds but he is being asked to go four furlongs further than he has done before and up against some experienced stayers, this may be too much to ask. Well Presented has done much of his racing over the soft ground in Ireland and after Justified failed to handle the quicker ground at Cheltenham, I will forever have doubts about asking horses to win on ground they are unfamiliar with. To be honest however, Well Presented simply doesnt seem to be classy enough to have a say in this race, compared to some of the other horses. Like A Butterfly is ruyled out for similar reasons and also because of age. 14 of the last 15 runners have been under 9 and so See You Sometime and Too Forward are also struck off the list. These two also seem to lack the ability to win this race however and so I can rule them out with some confidence. The first of those left on the shortlist is L'AMI, a French horse who was fourth to Trabolgan in the Royal Sun Alliance at Cheltenham. Regarded as a Gold Cup competitor for 2006, he was let down buy his jumping that day, which has been a problem before and it was also the first time he had encountered good ground. I ruled him out on that reason back in March but as long as the ground doesnt dry up before the off, the good-soft conditions should suit and any rain which does fall will be even better. His two recent outings on this ground saw him let down by his jumping when he fell at Kempton but the time before that, he was a two length winner over 13/8 favourite Distant Thunder. If there were no doubts about his jumping, this one would have very little if anything going against it but he will surely have learned from previous races. Timmy Murphy rides CONTROL MAN for Martin Pipe and he is a horse who will stay all day having recently finished third in a four mile event at Cheltenham. Crucially however, he was beaten by L'Ami in January when send off evens favourite. The horse also finished well behind Cornish Rebel in 2003, the horse which beat L'Ami to a place at Cheltenham by a heads length. He has however won a couple of races recently and his 15 length win over this distance back in January highlighted the fact that he is a relentless galloper and a 9 length win in December was no less than he deserved after a good jumping display. Those wins were over good-soft and good ground respectively and he is another who would only benefit from any rain fall but even if that fails to happen, he will have a chance but may not have the quality to win the race. JAZZ D´ESTRUVAL is the forecast favourite and a lightly raced one at that. After a years break from December 2003, he has raced on only three occasions, winning two while the other was literally a two horse race which was a mismatch on paper but after unseating his rider, he had no chance of winning despite him remounting. That run can be ignored therefore and his career performance reads 112311 which is extremely impressive. He returned to action with a ten length win at Ayr over Tribal Venture who has won since, beating another runner today Too Forward. That win was followed by an impressive nine length win over Trabolgan who of course won the R&SA Chase at Cheltenham. This horse avoided Cheltenham, probably because of the fast ground as he has previously had leg problems and is not risked on going which may cause problems. After racing over heavy and soft ground recently, this will be the fastest he has encountered since that injury and it isnt easy to say whether or not this could pose problems. This horse however is a very good prospect and it is unlikely that his trainer would take any risks but there is no question that it is a nagging doubt. WHITFORD DON is the final horse to have escaped any trends or doubts but is a horse who looks like he lacks the neccessary class to win a race of this calibre. He has failed to complete three of his last five races but when finishing the race, he has never been out of the picture. He does seem to be a risky one howeverm refusing to race for champion jockey Tony McCoy earlier this year which was followed by a fall next time out over a similar distance and on his favoured soft ground. He did win by eight lengths from Bubble Boy just nine days ago however and was present at Cheltenham but again failed to finish when in fourth place not far from the finish. Jockey Ruby Walsh has a very good Aintree record as well asa good record on this horse which reads UR211 and he is sure to give him a good ride but although the horse is bound to win in the future, it wont be this race. Having done so much analysis, the conclusion reached is that the two market leaders L'AMI and JAZZ D´ESTRUVAL will compete for the prize but as 12 of the last 15 winners have been first or second favourite, this is acceptable. Of the two, I have chosen to side with L'AMI as I believe he has more chance of jumping well enough to win than his main rival does of coping well enough with the ground which may not be testing enough. CONTROL MAN pay have a good chance each way but is unlikely to trouble these two when they reach the last few jumps.

08 April 2005 00:30 2:35 John Smith's Top Novices' Hurdle Only seven runners will compete for this Novice title and with all having experience of the 2m 1f trip, none can be ruled out on this alone while they are all suited to the conditions. An initial look however seems to rule out Napolitain whose only win was a Class E race and assuming the rest dont fall, he surely has very little chance of winning this one. Before Marcel was beaten into third by My Way De Solzen earlier this year, he was the next big thing but he disappointed again at Cheltenham and serious questions have to be asked about what form he is in. On a good day he is as good as any but there are other horses in better form and so I wouldnt back him with any confidence. That leaves us with five to consider and due to horses who did not run at Cheltenham but fared poorly in their last run having historically run badly in this event, ASTRONOMIC could be rejected. He did however beat Marcel last year and his poor performance last time out can be ignored as he did not handle the heavy ground. The time before that, a rematch of his earlier victory over Marcel, saw him fall at the fourth and so it is hard to judge him on that. Previous to that however he won by nine lengths from Low Cloud with todays jockey Graham Lee on board and the trainer stated later that he would be better suited to firmer ground than the soft conditions he encountered then. This horse clearly has ability and if you can look beyond his last two runs, he has claims here. NYRCE comes into this race on the back of a six length win over Lunar Crystal two weeks ago. That was his first race this year and saw him return to form having been out of the picture his previous two races, including a 19 length defeat to Marcel. Before that however, he notched up three wins over two miles in a row although none of them were of particularly great quality but he did what he had to do well enough to win comofortably each time. The doubt here is whether he has the ability to win this race and considering those he comes up against, I have to say he doesnt. Four of the last six winners here have come off a good run in the R&SA Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham and DUSKY WARBLER fits the bill in this years race. He was third behind Arcalis and Wild Passion in a run which confirmed he had shown previously over two miles. Before that he was an easy winner on soft ground at Folkestone when he was given a good lead and was never in trouble. That was his second win of the year and he was showing he was able to make the transition from the flat to the jumps. Ideally he would like a little more give in the ground but over his optimum teip, he will be hard to beat. MIGHTY MAN has won each of his three career races and comes into this race on the back of a win over Sea Captain who also lines up today. Before that he was a comfortable winner by seven lengths with a good performance over 2m 1f at Hereford. This followed on from a 21 length win in a Bumper at Worcester, his first ever race. The quality of this horse has been evident in each of his three races to date and it seems likely that he will win a big race before too long. His trainer had no intention of sending him to Cheltenham as he felt the occassion would be too much but favours Aintree as he is expected to be suited to this course. Plenty if positives for this one and assuming his inexperience doesnt get the better of him, he will have his part to play in the finish. Finally, SEA CAPTAIN comes into the same category as Astronomic and having lost to Mighty Man once when favourite, it is hard to see him reversing that today. He won two of his three races prior to that defeat and the one where he did finish out of the picture was described as a "farce" having been run at a snails pace. With Dusky Warbler in this field, the race may be run at a quicker pace which would suit but it is hard to see him beating Mighty Man and Dusky Warbler despite the class he clearly has. Another who will win a good race in the future but alas another who wont be winning it today. It is likely that once again the two market leaders have been picked out but having studyed the form thoroughly, I am happy with that. MIGHTY MAN will come on for his win last time out and looks a classy horse who will only improve with experience. Whether this race will come too soon for him is anyones guess especially with Dusky Warbler on the scene. He gets my nod however as he looks to make it four in a row.

[Martin]

Re: Aintree Ramblings 4:55 betfair.com Handicap Chase Older horses have a poor record in this race which enables me to rule out Happy Hussar, Lord Of The River and Marlborough as can Roveretto and Arctic Jack who are in very poor form. This is another three mile event and with Dark N Sharp untried over this distance, as well as being in poor form while Hand Inn Hand has shown that 3 miles is just too far for him after struggling his two efforts to date. Howaya Pet will stay all day having been running in Ireland over 3 miles on heavy ground but is another who lacks class and decent form. Of the three remaining, SLEEPING NIGHT is forecast as favourite and is certainly in a rich vein of form after justifying favouritism at Cheltenham to win the Foxhunters Chase. This was over a longer trip than he will face today and was on a tougher course and so there are no doubts about his stamina, and this is backed up by his 17 length win in February at Wetherby. He recovered from unseating his rider at Wincanton to win eight days later in a good preparation for the festival as hwe romped to a 23 length win. He is running of a very winnable mark here and will have no worries about the conditions underfoot even if it rains and so there is plenty in this ones favour. KOCK DE LA VESVRE is an outsider and one who hasnt won since last May when he beat the decent Longshanks over 3 miles. He returned to racing this year in February after an eight month lay off and put in a decent performance when third at Uttoxeter, although only six of the fourteen runners actually completed the race. Next time out he was only sixth at Doncaster over 3 miles before finishing sixth behind Kelami in the William Hill Handicap Chase at Cheltenham. There are no doubts about him handling the ground and distance but whether he has the class needed to win this race is doubtful. The lightly raced ZETA'S RIVER didnt make it to Cheltenham but comes here on the back of an impressive jumping display at Newbury last month. That was his first career win after two seconds to Bankers Court and One Nation earlier on. The latter of those was only his second race and inexperience played a part especially after he fell in his first outing, although he was matching Thisthatandtother until the fall. At thirteen, Bankers Court is an experienced, and good, jumper and Zeta's River showed enough then to suggest he is a class horse. Had he failed to go on from there and win, there would be doubts about his chances today but he did and under the guidance of Timmy Murphy, he has a good chance of following up here. Kock De La Vesvre is an interesting outsider but the two to consider here are Zeta's River and Sleeping night with the young going up against the experienced. It is very hard to split the two but at better odds and having shown impressive jumping ability, crucial at Aintree, ZETA'S RIVER gets the nod.