Aintree Ramblings

[Martin]

2:00 John Smith's Mildmay Novices' Chase I'm a strong believer that in races of 3 miles or more, proven stayers are the ones to go for and that is no different in this race. Admitedly, everyone who does something has to do it a first time but I feel better if I back a horse to do something he has done before. This comes in to play in the opening race tomorrow with a 3m 1f affair. Despite being a fan of Lacdoudal who has impressed of late, he, along with Limerick Boy, Captain Corelli and Chauvinist have not run over this trip or further and so are eliminated. Lacdoudal is certainly the biggest casulaty in terms of those favoured by the odds but he is being asked to go four furlongs further than he has done before and up against some experienced stayers, this may be too much to ask. Well Presented has done much of his racing over the soft ground in Ireland and after Justified failed to handle the quicker ground at Cheltenham, I will forever have doubts about asking horses to win on ground they are unfamiliar with. To be honest however, Well Presented simply doesnt seem to be classy enough to have a say in this race, compared to some of the other horses. Like A Butterfly is ruyled out for similar reasons and also because of age. 14 of the last 15 runners have been under 9 and so See You Sometime and Too Forward are also struck off the list. These two also seem to lack the ability to win this race however and so I can rule them out with some confidence. The first of those left on the shortlist is L'AMI, a French horse who was fourth to Trabolgan in the Royal Sun Alliance at Cheltenham. Regarded as a Gold Cup competitor for 2006, he was let down buy his jumping that day, which has been a problem before and it was also the first time he had encountered good ground. I ruled him out on that reason back in March but as long as the ground doesnt dry up before the off, the good-soft conditions should suit and any rain which does fall will be even better. His two recent outings on this ground saw him let down by his jumping when he fell at Kempton but the time before that, he was a two length winner over 13/8 favourite Distant Thunder. If there were no doubts about his jumping, this one would have very little if anything going against it but he will surely have learned from previous races. Timmy Murphy rides CONTROL MAN for Martin Pipe and he is a horse who will stay all day having recently finished third in a four mile event at Cheltenham. Crucially however, he was beaten by L'Ami in January when send off evens favourite. The horse also finished well behind Cornish Rebel in 2003, the horse which beat L'Ami to a place at Cheltenham by a heads length. He has however won a couple of races recently and his 15 length win over this distance back in January highlighted the fact that he is a relentless galloper and a 9 length win in December was no less than he deserved after a good jumping display. Those wins were over good-soft and good ground respectively and he is another who would only benefit from any rain fall but even if that fails to happen, he will have a chance but may not have the quality to win the race. JAZZ D´ESTRUVAL is the forecast favourite and a lightly raced one at that. After a years break from December 2003, he has raced on only three occasions, winning two while the other was literally a two horse race which was a mismatch on paper but after unseating his rider, he had no chance of winning despite him remounting. That run can be ignored therefore and his career performance reads 112311 which is extremely impressive. He returned to action with a ten length win at Ayr over Tribal Venture who has won since, beating another runner today Too Forward. That win was followed by an impressive nine length win over Trabolgan who of course won the R&SA Chase at Cheltenham. This horse avoided Cheltenham, probably because of the fast ground as he has previously had leg problems and is not risked on going which may cause problems. After racing over heavy and soft ground recently, this will be the fastest he has encountered since that injury and it isnt easy to say whether or not this could pose problems. This horse however is a very good prospect and it is unlikely that his trainer would take any risks but there is no question that it is a nagging doubt. WHITFORD DON is the final horse to have escaped any trends or doubts but is a horse who looks like he lacks the neccessary class to win a race of this calibre. He has failed to complete three of his last five races but when finishing the race, he has never been out of the picture. He does seem to be a risky one howeverm refusing to race for champion jockey Tony McCoy earlier this year which was followed by a fall next time out over a similar distance and on his favoured soft ground. He did win by eight lengths from Bubble Boy just nine days ago however and was present at Cheltenham but again failed to finish when in fourth place not far from the finish. Jockey Ruby Walsh has a very good Aintree record as well asa good record on this horse which reads UR211 and he is sure to give him a good ride but although the horse is bound to win in the future, it wont be this race. Having done so much analysis, the conclusion reached is that the two market leaders L'AMI and JAZZ D´ESTRUVAL will compete for the prize but as 12 of the last 15 winners have been first or second favourite, this is acceptable. Of the two, I have chosen to side with L'AMI as I believe he has more chance of jumping well enough to win than his main rival does of coping well enough with the ground which may not be testing enough. CONTROL MAN pay have a good chance each way but is unlikely to trouble these two when they reach the last few jumps.

08 April 2005 00:30 2:35 John Smith's Top Novices' Hurdle Only seven runners will compete for this Novice title and with all having experience of the 2m 1f trip, none can be ruled out on this alone while they are all suited to the conditions. An initial look however seems to rule out Napolitain whose only win was a Class E race and assuming the rest dont fall, he surely has very little chance of winning this one. Before Marcel was beaten into third by My Way De Solzen earlier this year, he was the next big thing but he disappointed again at Cheltenham and serious questions have to be asked about what form he is in. On a good day he is as good as any but there are other horses in better form and so I wouldnt back him with any confidence. That leaves us with five to consider and due to horses who did not run at Cheltenham but fared poorly in their last run having historically run badly in this event, ASTRONOMIC could be rejected. He did however beat Marcel last year and his poor performance last time out can be ignored as he did not handle the heavy ground. The time before that, a rematch of his earlier victory over Marcel, saw him fall at the fourth and so it is hard to judge him on that. Previous to that however he won by nine lengths from Low Cloud with todays jockey Graham Lee on board and the trainer stated later that he would be better suited to firmer ground than the soft conditions he encountered then. This horse clearly has ability and if you can look beyond his last two runs, he has claims here. NYRCE comes into this race on the back of a six length win over Lunar Crystal two weeks ago. That was his first race this year and saw him return to form having been out of the picture his previous two races, including a 19 length defeat to Marcel. Before that however, he notched up three wins over two miles in a row although none of them were of particularly great quality but he did what he had to do well enough to win comofortably each time. The doubt here is whether he has the ability to win this race and considering those he comes up against, I have to say he doesnt. Four of the last six winners here have come off a good run in the R&SA Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham and DUSKY WARBLER fits the bill in this years race. He was third behind Arcalis and Wild Passion in a run which confirmed he had shown previously over two miles. Before that he was an easy winner on soft ground at Folkestone when he was given a good lead and was never in trouble. That was his second win of the year and he was showing he was able to make the transition from the flat to the jumps. Ideally he would like a little more give in the ground but over his optimum teip, he will be hard to beat. MIGHTY MAN has won each of his three career races and comes into this race on the back of a win over Sea Captain who also lines up today. Before that he was a comfortable winner by seven lengths with a good performance over 2m 1f at Hereford. This followed on from a 21 length win in a Bumper at Worcester, his first ever race. The quality of this horse has been evident in each of his three races to date and it seems likely that he will win a big race before too long. His trainer had no intention of sending him to Cheltenham as he felt the occassion would be too much but favours Aintree as he is expected to be suited to this course. Plenty if positives for this one and assuming his inexperience doesnt get the better of him, he will have his part to play in the finish. Finally, SEA CAPTAIN comes into the same category as Astronomic and having lost to Mighty Man once when favourite, it is hard to see him reversing that today. He won two of his three races prior to that defeat and the one where he did finish out of the picture was described as a "farce" having been run at a snails pace. With Dusky Warbler in this field, the race may be run at a quicker pace which would suit but it is hard to see him beating Mighty Man and Dusky Warbler despite the class he clearly has. Another who will win a good race in the future but alas another who wont be winning it today. It is likely that once again the two market leaders have been picked out but having studyed the form thoroughly, I am happy with that. MIGHTY MAN will come on for his win last time out and looks a classy horse who will only improve with experience. Whether this race will come too soon for him is anyones guess especially with Dusky Warbler on the scene. He gets my nod however as he looks to make it four in a row.

[Martin]

Re: Aintree Ramblings 4:55 betfair.com Handicap Chase Older horses have a poor record in this race which enables me to rule out Happy Hussar, Lord Of The River and Marlborough as can Roveretto and Arctic Jack who are in very poor form. This is another three mile event and with Dark N Sharp untried over this distance, as well as being in poor form while Hand Inn Hand has shown that 3 miles is just too far for him after struggling his two efforts to date. Howaya Pet will stay all day having been running in Ireland over 3 miles on heavy ground but is another who lacks class and decent form. Of the three remaining, SLEEPING NIGHT is forecast as favourite and is certainly in a rich vein of form after justifying favouritism at Cheltenham to win the Foxhunters Chase. This was over a longer trip than he will face today and was on a tougher course and so there are no doubts about his stamina, and this is backed up by his 17 length win in February at Wetherby. He recovered from unseating his rider at Wincanton to win eight days later in a good preparation for the festival as hwe romped to a 23 length win. He is running of a very winnable mark here and will have no worries about the conditions underfoot even if it rains and so there is plenty in this ones favour. KOCK DE LA VESVRE is an outsider and one who hasnt won since last May when he beat the decent Longshanks over 3 miles. He returned to racing this year in February after an eight month lay off and put in a decent performance when third at Uttoxeter, although only six of the fourteen runners actually completed the race. Next time out he was only sixth at Doncaster over 3 miles before finishing sixth behind Kelami in the William Hill Handicap Chase at Cheltenham. There are no doubts about him handling the ground and distance but whether he has the class needed to win this race is doubtful. The lightly raced ZETA'S RIVER didnt make it to Cheltenham but comes here on the back of an impressive jumping display at Newbury last month. That was his first career win after two seconds to Bankers Court and One Nation earlier on. The latter of those was only his second race and inexperience played a part especially after he fell in his first outing, although he was matching Thisthatandtother until the fall. At thirteen, Bankers Court is an experienced, and good, jumper and Zeta's River showed enough then to suggest he is a class horse. Had he failed to go on from there and win, there would be doubts about his chances today but he did and under the guidance of Timmy Murphy, he has a good chance of following up here. Kock De La Vesvre is an interesting outsider but the two to consider here are Zeta's River and Sleeping night with the young going up against the experienced. It is very hard to split the two but at better odds and having shown impressive jumping ability, crucial at Aintree, ZETA'S RIVER gets the nod.

[ralphie7]

Re: Aintree Ramblings Good Luck Martin :ok

[Jamie]

Re: Aintree Ramblings Brilliant write up's Martin, and the best of luck with them.

[Martin]

Re: Aintree Ramblings Thanks guys :) Not a bad day with Mighty Man winning well, disappointed with L'Ami though especially with Jazz d'Estruval out.

3rd	1½ l	:'>L'Ami (FR)		R Thornton	7-2
			11 9	F Doumen
		Held up, headway 10th, ridden when switched left and challenged after 2 out, not quicken flat Opened 7/2, touched 4/1

1st		:'>Mighty Man (FR)	5	R Johnson	3-1
			11 0	H Daly
		Held up in rear, headway approaching 3 out, led 2 out, kept on under pressure flat, held on well towards finish Opened 3/1

2nd	10l	:'>Zeta's River (IRE)	7	T J Murphy	5-2
			10 0	M Pipe
		Held up in rear, steady headway from 13th, ridden and every chance 2 out, kept on, not pace of winner Opened 9/4, touched 5/2

[Martin]

Re: Aintree Ramblings 2.15 John Smith's Maghull Novices' Chase With 11 of the last 12 winners having run in the Arkle at Cheltenham, Dempsey, Pennys From Heaven, Saintsaire and Parknasilla are ruled out immediately. Based on that, Made In Japan and Mambo Des Mottes were outclassed in thnat race and have shown nothing in their careers to suggest that they are of the calibre needed to win a big race. Made In Japan hasn’t been running particularly well of late while Mambo Des Mottes ran over 2 miles for the first time at Cheltenham. This leaves a shortlist of five and the first of those is ASHLEY BROOK who was beaten a length by Contraband in the Arkle, a horse who also runs today. This was however a very good effort from the horse who is more at ease with give in the ground which looked likely for today but the rains have not fallen. The time before his Cheltenham effort saw him beaten as the 2/1 favourite; again the ground was firmer than he would have liked but a mistake four out meant he had no chance of winning. Before that, he was beaten half a length by My Will, another runner today, with both horses coming home in front of Contraband but in fairness the race was run on heavy ground which certainly favoured the first two home and will not be encountered today. It is therefore very much down to whether or not Ashley Brook can overturn his defeat at Cheltenham and assuming there is cut in the ground, he has every chance of doing so. CONTRABAND has been talked about briefly but there are several other points to consider. Before his Cheltenham win, he finished in front of Made In Japan when winning at Sandown and second in front of My Will at Cheltenham. The ground was much more suited to Contraband than when beaten by the same horse, as described above and assuming there isnt lashings of rain, is closer to what they will encounter here. More interesting to me is his defeat to River City at this course last October, a race run over soft ground. There was question marks over his jumping that day and although he will have improved since, Aintree takes some jumping and there is always the chance he will be found wanting again. In winning the Arkle however, he beat River City into third place and so the conditions are vital to the chances of these two. Before that defeat at Cheltenham, RIVER CITY had won five races on the trot over distances from 16-19f and on ground ranging from soft to good, culminating of course in that win over Contraband. This highlights just how flexible this horse is and of course he has vital Aintree experience and there is very few negatives that can be aimed at this horse, other than his age which historically counts against him. If the ground softens up however, he has real claims to beat Contraband once again. WAR OF ATTRITION was a disappointing seventh in the Arkle having gone off 11/4 favourite. His trainer had no excuses afterwards and said he handled the ground but that perhaps the trip was too much, considering the going. He should encounter more cut in the ground tomorrow which is more to his liking. Having done the vast majority of his racing in Ireland, it is hard to compare his form to that of those who have raced over here, and crucially against each other but given that he was well fancied for the Arkle, he must have done something right. He did finish second to Brave Inca at last years Festival in the Supreme Novices which looks a good run on paper but I’d be more inclined to side with a horse who has beaten more than this oe has. MY WILL is another who found the ground too fast at Cheltenham and would welcome some cut in the ground for this one. It is therefore hard to place this one on previous form, having lost out to Contraband twice on good ground which has to be taken into consideration but the ground may not go soft enough here for him to reverse that form. He also, as noted previously, beat Ashley Brook when conditions were heavy and this time, it was his rival who found such a going unfavourable. Unless it gets very soft tomorrow, he may well struggle once again to stay in it until the finish. In conclusion, if the ground is officially good for the off, it is hard to see beyond Contraband and Ashley Brook who will fight it out again but I like the look of RIVER CITY who will handle the ground and has vital Aintree experience and at decent odds, he may well spring a surprise.

3.20 Scottish and Newcastle Aintree Hurdle Twenty five of the twenty seven winners of this race ran at Cheltenham which rules out Blue Canyon. Exotic Dancer meanwhile would have to run the race of his life, and still hope the rest fall, to win this based on previous form. The other important stat is that the last twenty winners have all won over the trip of 2m 4f and so Al Elie and Macs Joy fall by the wayside and are joined by Rooster Booster to leave four left from whom the winner must surely come! ACCORDION ETOILE has won over the trip before but that was in 2003 in what was not a particularly competitive race. Furthermore, the race was won on good to firm ground and with the horse normally favouring softer conditions, but with the ground drying out today, he should have conditions to suit but his lack of experience may prove costly. BRACE INCA finished a mere half length to Hardy Eustace in the Champion Hurdle last month in what was a very good run from the seven year old. Having won over this trip in Ireland, he was put back to running over two miles and he proceeded to win four on the bounce. He then came second to Macs Joy on two occassions but reasons can be found for both (heavy going and the concession of 10lbs) and cosidering Hardy Eustace was third in one of the races, the run was still creditable. The nature of his finish at Cheltenham where he came on strongly from two out suggests that he will be perfectly suited to this increase in trip and as long and as long as the ground doesn’t soften too much, has to be fancied. INGLIS DRIVER was of course the bookies best friend when he beat Baracouda by three lengths at Cheltenham and there are absolutely no doubts that he will stay the trip. Crucially, he is a winner over todays trip at Aintree and so will have no problems in the jumping department. Another very versatile horse when it comes to the conditions having won on fast ground as well as heavy ground, everything looks set for him to take all the beating as he bids to clock up his fourth win on the trot. And I will take him to do just that, in edging out Brave Inca which is what the market would suggest will happen. Everything looks set to be in his favour and it is for this reason that he is given the nod.

4.20 John Smith’s Grand National Chase The big race of the day, and the year for some, and through a variety of strong trends, my shortlist sits at six which will be sifted through in a bid to find the winner. HEDGEHUNTER fell at the last in this race last year when sitting third and although it looked a weary fall, he had done well until that point. Since then he has slowly been upped in trip in preparation for this marathon and this culminated in a win over Pizarrro in February although the favourtie did look out of sorts that day. Hedgehunter has been prepped for this race however and will surely have learned from last year and is expected to be given a more patient ride by Aintree specialist Ruby Walsh. This should ensure that he isn’t as tired at the final fences and his chances certainly have to be respected for that. IT TAKES TIME was found out by the handicapper in his last outing having previously beaten Ollie Magern in February, although he still managed to finish within four lengths of the winner. Always one to be given a patient ride, this may count against him as this race is normally won by prominent riders. He has however won over 3m previously which is crucial and will handle whichever ground is thrown at him. Timmy Murphy has chosen this as his ride in the National which can only be a good omen but has a fair bit to prove and would possibly be a risky selection. JOLY BEY was pulled up last time out at Cheltenham through no fault of his own after colliding with another horse which resulted in his saddle slipping. The time before that, he stayed on well to win over three miles at Sandown by six lengths but his low jumping style there highlighted a possible problem when it comes to the National fences. He was present at last years meeting when 5/1 favourite for the Topham Chase but he fell four out when leading. A year earlier however, he was third in the Novices Chase, behind It Takes Time who was second. This could give a key insight into his chances as he was a full seven lengths behind the horse he faces today and considering his jumping style, he will find it hard to beat him nevermind anyone else. JUST IN DEBT is next up and is another who ran last year, unseating his rider. He manage second to Silver Birch at Aintree earlier on this season however which is probably his best race to date in this country having done most of his racing in his native Ireland. His other performance in a high class race was the Scottish National in which he again failed to finish and there are therefore doubts about his class and this, in my opinion, will ultimately rule him out of winning. SPOT THEDIFFERENCE will stay forever and ever having won the Cross Country Chase at the Festival as well as winning over 4m 2f in Ireland. Another who was in last years race and he mananaged to finish, albeit it 35 lengths behind Amberleigh House. It is unlikely that he will be able to win this years however as he is another who seems to lack the neccesary class to win a race of this calibre but he has as much of a chance as anyone of a clear round and he may well feature in the shake up. Finally, STRONG RESOLVE has to defy the negative trends of being Grey and Scottish in order to win this one! Has experience over extreme distances when a good second to Silver Birch at Chepstow last year before finishing second at Kelso this year in his warm up for this race which was over an inadequate trip. Is reknowed for his jumping fluency and will handle the ground whether or not it gets softer before the off. There are a lot of positives for this one as he will stay the trip, handle the ground and should cope with the fences if he maintains his normally excellent jumping and it is hard to see him finishing out of the picture. It is perhaps risky to assume that the winner of the race will fit the trends of recent years (other than being Grey or Scottish) but assuming he does, the two most likely to win the Grand National are HEDGEHUNTER and STRONG RESOLVE. The former will come on for last years fall, especially under the ride of Ruby Walsh and with both expected to go the distance, it is with these two that my hopes of a National win wil rest. A word on FOREST GUNNER who will stay the course and has a great chance of completing it. Women jockey’s don’t win Nationals, that’s a fact but Carrie Ford has the best chance of any today and shouldn’t be discounted

[Jay]

Re: Aintree Ramblings Superb write up & info there Martin...Many thanks

[Martin]

Re: Aintree Ramblings

6th	¾l	River City (IRE)	8	T Doyle	7-2
			11 4	Noel T Chance
		Held up in rear, headway 7th, went 3rd and hit 4 out, weakened next Opened 4/1

Chance was gone when it hit the fourth last but I dont think that made much difference, if it gets quick ground, I'd be on again though. Not sure how likely he is to run again this season.

2nd	nk	Inglis Drever	6	G Lee	9-4
			11 7	J Howard Johnson
		Led at very slow pace, quickened approaching 3rd, driven along and quickened again approaching 6th, headed final 100 yards, ran on Opened 9/4, touched 5/2

Didn't see this one, but looks like it was close.

17th	6l	Strong Resolve (IRE)	9	P Buchanan	9-1
			10 6	Miss Lucinda V Russell
		Chased leaders, blundered 1st, mistake and lost place 16th behind after Opened 11/1

1st		Hedgehunter (IRE)	9	R Walsh	7-1
			11 1	W Mullins
		Held up in touch, mistake 10th, blundered and rider lost iron briefly 21st, left in lead 22nd (Becher's Brook), drew clear after 2 out, comfortably Opened 9/1

Made a fair bit on Hedgehunter, not bad for my first National dabble.