Calculus' Flat Season 2014

[calculus]

Going to start a thread to keep track of my bets for the 2014 flat season, my intention is to run the thread from the Guineas meeting until the St Leger meeting. I hope to be able to work a bit more discipline into my investments and reduce knee jerk decisions by posting them up here with thought out reasoning. Bets will tend towards smaller stakes at speculative prices and will generally be win only. It's been more miss than hit for me lately, but it's a long term game and hopefully I can get things back on track in due course :hope.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 First one for tomorrow: Thirsk 5:20 - Red Baron (8/1 Bet365) 1 Pt Win The Guineas meeting usually coincides with the time where I can start getting seriously involved on the flat and I feel like I may have found one worthy of a significant investment tomorrow. I was really taken with Red Baron last time out as he blasted out of the gates and had the rest of the field in trouble a long way from home, eventually running out an authoritative winner by just under 2 lengths. What makes that performance all the more impressive is the fact that it was on soft ground and his best historic form has all come on ground on the firm side of good. He is likely to get firmer ground tomorrow so it seems reasonable to expect some improvement from his previous run on the basis of the ground at least. While he has a big field in opposition tomorrow, many of them are past their best these days and hold few secrets from the handicapper. I think my selection looks like being a really progressive sprinter this season and I would be surprised if he is eligible for a class 4 handicap again any time soon. 8/1 looks perfectly reasonable in my opinion and I think he will take a lot of stopping.