National Hunt Racing - Thursday 17th April

[Bathtime For Rupert]

2.05 Cheltenham - 2pts win As I Am @ 9/2 (Sportingbet) My selection got the better of The Pirate's Queen by 9l in November when running off level weights and on that evidence I think the 5lb swing still leaves the Don Cantillon-trained mare in with a fantastic chance of holding that one once more. Since that day, this tough mare has only finished second and third but the 2nd came when giving 5lbs to a talented animal rated 143 now so I think that can be forgiven and also I think last time's effort on heavy ground at Taunton can be marked up. She jumped left there and also I really don't think she loves soft ground even though her form suggests she handles it okay. I think she'll be happier on this sounder surface given her action (5 of 7 wins on decent ground, none on heavy). Given that, I think her recent form bodes well. She's game, she'll race prominently and stays a bit further which can help around here. Hard to not see her battling out the finish. 2.40 Cheltenham - 3pts win Baby Shine @ 2/1 (Bet365) I think Lucy Wadham's mare wins this almost be default if she jumps round. She's not infallible and took a crashing fall when in the lead in Ireland last time but the top three in the weights hold a significant class advantage of those below and I'm not a fan of the other two market principals. She Ranks Me has a questionable demeanour and only beat my selection in a match by 2 3/4l receiving 12lbs and I think the tiny field suited that one too. I expect that form to be reversed and Tempest River is nothing special who struggles to win races (don't be fooled by her 10l win at Taunton in November - they went off way too fast in front and all came back to her at the final flight.) Baby Shine is fairly consistent and whilst not the best jumper in the world isn't too bad. Only made that one awful error at the last at Limerick - her other mistakes were tentative jumps rather than blunders. The horse who eventually won that is a decent type who'd hold a sound chance in this so the form's not bad either and so long as she jumps round she'll take the world of beating. 3.50 Cheltenham - 2pts win Time For Rupert @ 7/1 (Bet365) I do love this horse, that may be true, but I do still think he has a big chance this afternoon. He's not quite the force of old now but that allows him to run off a fair mark and has shaped better on a couple of recent occasions. Finished second either side of a poor run at the Festival (a hustle and bustle handicap chase with a big field and a midfield sit doesn't really suit). He's best when allowed his head to bowl along and he did that quite impressively at Ascot last time with the visor applied. Travelled and jumped well and was just outstayed late on by a strong stayer. Wasn't stopping, however, and he's more than capable of going well at this venue. He likes decent ground, the visor stays on and now back at Cheltenham in a more suitable race - 10 runners, good chance to go forward early - I think he'll go really well. Some of the main market rivals like to be held up and are prone to mistakes so if O'Regan can get Rupert into a rhythm from near the front hopefully he'll put the others under pressure and storm up the hill to victory!