Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun!

[Martin]

Tuesday 5th April 2005 3.20 Folkestone A typically poor days racing early in the season with a lot of horses coming from the all weather onto turf for the first time in a good while. Todays solitary selection however is one who has yet to experience the sand and Kingscross is taken to put a frustrating spell behind him and return to winning ways. After an exceptionally poor last outing in 2004, Kingscross returns to the 6f trip today in a bid to win again for the first time since May last year. He has struggled in his last few races in bigger fields and has not been able to find the gap he needed but a favourable draw in stall 12 will aid him here, as well as having to beat only 13 other horses. The soft ground is another factor firmly in his favour as he has won 18% of races run with a fair bit of give in the ground compared to just 5% of races which were run on firmer conditions. This should therefore give him the edge he needs to start 2005 with a win. Although the race seems fairly open, the presence of a draw advantage rules out several runners while only a few have a distinct advantage and conditions would appear to be set to suit, as they need to be, for Kingscross to take all the beating. 2pts staked @ 8.8

[bowles10]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! great title Martin! but tuesday at Folkstone compared with the 3 days ahead at Aintree is no comparison. I love the flat too on turf & have more fun backing flat handicappers than those old sloggers over the jumps. I'm a fan of Kingscross also, & followed it much over the last 2 years. Reckoned it had a big handicap prize in it but never fulfilled it's promise. Should run well today & i wish you luck. i am on Viennas Boy which is an interesting runner coming out of hannons stable last year & now with Willie Musson.

[Martin]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! Tuesday 5th April 2005 3.20 Folkestone

3rd Drawn 12	nk	Kingscross	7	D Sweeney	7-1
			9 4	M Blanshard
		Held up well in rear far side, good headway approaching final furlong, ridden to press leaders inside final furlong, no extra near finish Opened 8/1

Staked: 2pts Returned: 0pts Days total: -2pts Running Total: -2pts Bank: 28pts

[Martin]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! Wednesday 6th April 2005 3.10 Nottingham Continent gets the nod over Tom Tun due to his good form over course and distance. His run at Doncaster at the weekend was his first of the season and will have blown away the cobwebs as he looks to record his first win this year. He has good form on the soft going and Daryl Holland has a 20% win record, 44pts to level stakes, at Nottingham while he runs of a decent mark. Everything is set therefore for him to take this race. 2pts @ 3.95 3.40 Nottingham Junkanoo can justify favouritism despite a two year break from flat racing. He has some decent form over the jumps this year and so there is no worries about his fitness which will affect some of his rivals. Another winner over course and distance, he has winning form on this ground and worse which is crucial when the rains come. Although this was all a long time ago, they say class is permanent and this horse can show his today. 2pts @ 4.4 4.10 Nottingham May be seen as playing safe again but Winged D'Argent is another favourite who will take all the beating. Only two horses in this race have run this year and the selection can take advantage and win on ground he loves. Mark Johnston has two runners in this race and must be confident of a win but his good record with Kevin Darley coupled with the jockeys good course record, Winged D'Argent can take the spoils. The horse has only raced on six occasions, but has won three and only finished out of the picture once and so clearly has the form to win this one. He will come on from his defeat to Cold Turkey 11 days ago and win what looks a decent race. 2pts @ 2.74

[Jamie]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! Good luck Martin.

[Martin]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! Wednesday 6th April 2005 3.10 Nottingham

6th Drawn 3	1¼ l	Continent	8	D Holland	7-2
			9 10	D Nicholls
		Started slowly, behind, effort halfway, weakened over 1f out Opened 3/1, touched 7/2

3.40 Nottingham

1st Drawn 6		Junkanoo	9	D Mernagh	7-2
			8 4	K Reveley
		Held up, headway over 3f out, ridden over 2f out, stayed on to lead post Opened 7/2, touched 4/1

4.10 Nottingham

1st Drawn 6		Winged d'Argent (IRE)	4	K Darley	6-4
			8 11	M Johnston
		Led early, in touch, pushed along over 7f out, led over 3f out, soon ridden and headed, driven to lead again inside final furlong, ran on Opened 13/8, touched 7/4

Staked: 6pts Returned: 13.8pts Days Total: +7.8pts Running Total: +5.8pts Bank: 35.8pts

[dave]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! Well done, good day

[Shawn Michaels]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! Looks good Martin!

[Martin]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! Thanks guys, nothing of interest these past two days.

[Martin]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! Newcastle 3.15 bet365 Handicap There are several decent looking horses set to run in this handicap but one by one most of them have been eliminated to leave three who look to have a good chance. Of those thrown out, Artistic Style and Apertif both performed well in the past before the handicapper got their number and they have both struggled since. Neither looks to have returned to a winable mark just yet but are two to look out for when they do. CD Flyer hasn’t run since November and will likely need a run to get rid of the cobwebs, especially on this soft ground which is not his favourite. Ruling this one out effectively rules out King Harson who is held by CD Flyer although the ground wasn’t in his favour that time. Another who will need a run but another who is one to look out for having won a decent Handicap at Chester in August beating Digital and, significantly Marshman who went on to defeat CD Flyer. Digital hasn’t won in 27 races, since September 2003 and although he is returning to a winable mark, it isnt going to get any easier to win on him. Does have his positives however having finished fourth in this race last year while he is suited to the trip. Young Mr Grace is another held by other runners, Digital and King Harson and it is hard to see him reversing that form. Finally Mystic Man is held by the shortlisted Nero’s Return and CD Flyer and has also been in poor form and so looks unlikely to have a say in this race. To those who made the cut, COMMANDO SCOTT looks the least likely of the three to win having been tried only once ovedr 7f before being returned to 6f immedistely after that single race in which he was out of the frame. Incidently he won that next race and he has run some good races over 6f, especially on this soft ground. Stamina is a doubt however and due to that, he is left alone. Next, NERO’S RETURN made a winning start to the season eleven days ago with a necks win over Cimyla and favourite Alfonso. This was run over one mile and with the horse having raced over 10f, stamina will not be a problem. This win was his first since winning the first two races of his career two years ago and he failed to shine last year as a three year old. The doubt here is the soft going especially with more rain forecast. The good to soft ground encountered last time was his most testing to date and although he handled it well, I prefer to look for proven horses when races are run over the more extreme conditions. A brief look at his breeding would back these claims up with his dam having only ever won on good ground. This leads me to ZILCH who was second in this race last year when going off favourite, losing to soft ground specialist Tidy. That provides the evidence that he will go on the ground and further rain would be welcomed. He was in excellent form last Spring with his form in March and April reading 1221 including a win over CD Flyer who runs today. After that however, he struggled when running off a higher mark, notching up only one more victory before the handicapper had him sussed. He returned to action this year with a disappointing run at Kempton but the ground was faster there and he will have come on for that run. Both jockey and trainer have excellent records at Newcastle and team up for only the third time, having won one of the two so far. These are positive facts and assuming his poor form is not down to anything sinister, he can return to winning ways. 2pts WIN @ 8.6 2pts place @ 2.64

[staffy]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! Nice write up Martin. good Luck with your selection today. had a small E/W punt onyour selection for interest.:hope

[staffy]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! Nice one Zilch came up trumps for us.:clap

[Martin]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! Good to pick a winner who wasnt favourite!

[bowles10]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! well done Martin. :clap difficult day to find winners.

[Martin]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun!

1st Drawn 6		:'>Zilch	7	R Winston	13-2
			9 8	M Bell
		Held up behind, ridden over 2f out, headway on outside over 1f out, ran on to lead towards finish Opened 7/1

Staked: 4pts Returned: 21.6pts Days Total: +17.6pts Running Total: +23.4pts Bank: 53.4pts

[Martin]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! Thanks bowles :)

[Martin]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! Sunday 10th April 5.00 Leopardstown This looks like being a classic two horse race between Almighty and BOBS PRIDE with the later given then nod. Having looked through the cards today, there was nothing that stood out but having read that Aiden O'Brien has doubts over his runners today due to the large amount of rain that has fallen, I started looking for a laying oppertunity. Of his horses in general, he states: "We’ve had an unnatural amount of rain down here over the last two weeks and it has really held us up. “As a result most of our horses are only a little more than three-quarters ready to start but we need to get them started somewhere. You’re going to see improvement from their runs.” Considering Almighty returns to racing after a long break, this may well be the run he needs to shake off the cobwebs before returning to winning ways later in the season. Of the horse, O'Brien said: “He’s a nice horse and a light mover so heavy ground won’t suit but we have to start him off somewhere,” Seems to have doubts from reading that, compared to the trainer of Bobs Pride, Dermot Weld who simply says: “He’ll handle the ground well” To the race itself, and in my opinion, Clash of the Ash, Mister Hight and Premier Dane lack the class to win this one against two potentially very good horses. Almighty was an odds on winner last year over 8f but with parts of the course declared as heavy, coupled with the opinions of O'Brien who will know the horse best of all, he may well struggle with the further 2f. BOBS PRIDE finally got off the mark three weeks ago when asserting 1f out to beat Shalapour and that run would suggest that he will cope with with the extra distance today. This decision is very much based on the opinions of the trainers coupled with Almighty's lack of a run this season, and I take BOBS PRIDE to take this one. 2pts LAY Almighty @ 1.82 2pts WIN Bobs Pride @ 3.1

[Martin]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun!

1st		Bobs Pride	3	P J Smullen	5-4
			9 0	D Weld
		Held up in 4th, smooth headway entering straight, led under 1 1/2f out, ridden clear, comfortably

4th	2l	Almighty (USA)	3	K Fallon	evens
			9 0	A P O'Brien
		Tracked leaders in 3rd, pushed along 3f out, 4th and ridden early straight, no impression from 1 1/2f out

Staked: 4pts Returned: 9.9pts Days Total: +5.9pts Running Total: +29.3pts Bank: 59.3pts

[bowles10]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! didnt see this until now, well done again:dude

[Martin]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! Thanks, tomorrow looks a poor days racing with most horses coming off the A/W. Some decent racing at Newmarket on later on in the week though.

[Tulenos]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! Know your gg's Martin, will keep a close eye on yer future sels.;)

[Martin]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! Thanks Tulenos :)

[Martin]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! Tuesday 12th April Newmarket 2.55 Museeb is all the rage here and certainly makes the shortlist along with two others, but it is by no means a dead cert in my book. Firstly, those ruled out, and despite winning first time out, Stagbury Hill has done little since and this suggests he will struggle here in better company. St Andrews Storm is held by two here and again, with better quality present, is unlikely to feature in the finish. Improvise is held by King Marju and will find a few too good while Tucker looks a decent sort but has so far only experienced soft ground and 6f which he has done well on. Being a firm believer in horses for courses, he is ruled out with that in mind, as well as the fact his last race was pretty uncompetitive. So, to the final three and Woodcoote has some good form when third in a decent race last season, beaten by Nufoos and Moth Ball who are good horses as well as finishing in front of the promising Yajbill who was favourite. That was his second race and was a good follow up to his maiden win. He has been gradually stepped up in trip but should suit todays and this leaves the only question mark being the ground. When winning first time out, he ran on a quicker part of the course (official going good-soft) which would indicate that he will handle the firmer ground today but he doesnt appear to be bred for it with his dam running on soft ground for much of her career. Last time out he faced good ground and seemed to suit it and he stayed on well enough. If he handles the ground today, he will surely go close. Museeb has been talked up all week after winning earlier this month and he does look like a good horse in the making. Will handle the ground and trip without a problem and this leaves the only doubt being the quality of race he won and whether todays will be as easy as some make out. When beaten first time out, he showed signs of inexperience but those who finished in front have achieved little since which raises question marks over the quality of the race. After that, he was beaten favourite behind Esquire who, as a son of Dubai Millenium will obviously have class but again, those who finished behind him have done nothing of note since. His five length win last week was impressive even if the field wasnt of the greatest quality and he may finally have shaken off his inexperience but there are enough doubts in my mind to overlook him. Especially on the back of this from the stable: “This is the logical next step for Museeb, but Doncaster looked a very ordinary race, and he is a big, immature colt who won’t be seen at his best until later in the year. We like him, but its one step at a time.” I may have looked to find negatives about this one which is always a bad idea but there are enough postives about my selection for me to stick with it. KING MARJU finally got off the mark third time out when beating Improvise before being beaten a shoulder by the fast finishing Enforcer. He ran a good race last time out in a Class A race behind soft ground specialists Cupids Glory and Johnny Jumpup who have both won a good few races in their careers with Johnny Jumpup winning 3/5. Of those behind him, Breacon Beacon was second to the impressive Party Boss last week and so this run can be considered a good one. As long as he goes well after a break (trainer has 1st and 2nd with horses coming back this year), he should run a good race. 2pts @ 4.6

[bowles10]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! Interesting MArtin, I do see King Marju as the danger in the race although the thing in Museeb's favour would be the recent run over the distance where it did what it had to do. It will be an interesting contest no doubt & may prove a pointer to how Chapple-Hyams runners will fare during the week. Good luck

[Martin]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! Musselburgh 4.15 I don't normally touch Maidens but the forecast favourite CROSS TIME looks a good thing here. He struggled with the ground first time out when sixth before reappearing this season with a good second, despite tiring with 2f left to race. That was over soft ground and a look at his breeding suggests he will be better suited to the faster ground today. He is only one of two who will benefit from running this season and the other Trivandrun doesnt look brilliant. When there is racing in Scotland, I look for trainers sending their horses from afar, and Cross Time is sent 370 miles for this one and coupled with Mick Channon's good record on this course and with jockey A Culhane, he can justify favouritism. 2pts @ 2.44

[Martin]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun!

Interesting MArtin, I do see King Marju as the danger in the race although the thing in Museeb's favour would be the recent run over the distance where it did what it had to do. It will be an interesting contest no doubt & may prove a pointer to how Chapple-Hyams runners will fare during the week. Good luck

I'm a fan of horses having a run before racing in a decent race, or any race at all, and Museeb certainly has that. There is every chance he will win but I fancied taking him on and think theres enough in King Marju to at least run him close! May the best horse win!

[Martin]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun!

3rd Drawn 1	1¼ l	:'>King Marju (IRE)	3	J Fortune	4-1
			8 11	P Chapple-Hyam
		Tracked leaders, ridden to challenge over 1f out, stayed on same pace

3rd Drawn 9	2l	:'>Cross Time (USA)	3	A Culhane	10-11
			8 7	M Channon
		Chased leaders, ridden over 2f out, one pace final furlong Opened 11/10, touched 11/8

Staked: 4pts Returned: 0pts Days Total: -4pts Running Total: +25.3pts Bank: 55.3pts

[Martin]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! From now on, all bets will be rated on a 1-3 confidence scale which will in turn decide how many points are placed.

[Martin]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! Saturday 16th April 3.10 Newbury As ever, lets get rid of those who don't look like having a good chance and Don't Tell Mum has only ever raced over 5f on firm ground and two extra furlongs with testing conditions underfoot will be too much for her. Extreme Beauty is another who needs faster ground and also has poor recent form when compared to others while Love Thirty may find this race a step up too far. Royal Alchemist and Salamanca are held by the shortlisted Pinkenna Princess while the races they have run don't hold up particularly well. Siena Gold has done much of her work over 5f and is another who may find this trip too tough while Song Thrush was a surprising 20/1 winner first time out but faces much classier rivals today. When looking at the odds, I was surprised to see Gold Queen forecast at 33/1 having looked at her career to date. Although admitedly she has not raced in a race of this class, her third to Shangai Lilly and Ruby Wine is no disgrace considering the high regard the former is held in. She then won her second race and those who finished second and third that day have won since. Last time out, she found 9f too far and so it can be excused. Returning to seven furlongs today, I cant help but feel I must have missed something but in my opinion, she looks to have each way claims considering the form of the others who have been rejected. To the shortlisted three and I was annoyed to find I was left with the three forecast favourites as I could have done that without knocking the rest out. Nevertheless, they look the class acts of the race and Echelon is the first to be considered. A half sister to the impressive Chic, she won first time out before encountering traffic problems in her second race when favourite. She will come on for that and should handle both ground and trip. Pinkenna Princess won a listed race at Newmarket last year before being beaten a shoulder in the Rockafel Stakes. Certainly has class in abundance and if she runs well fresh, is the one to beat on previous form. The selection however is CLEAR IMPRESSIONS who is trying this trip for the first time but is expected to suit. She was beaten by the impressive Suez first time out despite being found to be unwell afterwards. All but two of those running that day have won since. Returning this seaon, she won a modest maiden this month by three lengths and although todays race is a step up in class, her fitness may prove crucial and she is given the nod. Confidence: 2/3 2pts @ 4.8

[Martin]

Re: Forget the jumps, forget the sand, the real racing has begun! 3.45 Newbury I may regret not going through the card for this one but INDESATCHEL looks a class horse and is taken to race past the opposition today after his impressive win at the Curragh earlier this month. From that race: "He cruised up alongside the leader over 1f out and sprinted away when the button was pressed 200 yards from home. He won easily and looks in the top drawer. It is of considerable significance that he worked well with the 1,000 Guineas-bound Damson here a fortnight earlier." Trainer David Wachman said: "I could never get him 100 per cent after his win last season, but he is a different horse this year. He loves soft ground, but I don't think he will get a mile. There are plenty of Group races for him over six and seven furlongs and he could be a horse for the Jersey Stakes." He faces decent rivals in Adronikis and Galeota but they both run for the first time this season and I would now rather back horses I know to be fit. He is Wachmans only runner at Newbury today and having been sent over from Ireland, confidence must be high. Confidence: 3/3 3pts @ 2.36