flat racing sat 15th feb

[richard-westwood]

not a huge amount of decent sprints tomorrow so ill just do the one race .............2.50 ling class 3 harwoods volante 99.19 drive on 99.01 scruffy tramp 98.66 golden amber 98.50 tough little race ..........all eyes are on national service who to be fair could be anything and bookies have him installed as 9/4 fav so has to be respected but given the level of opposition he takes on here theres no value at all in his price .harwoods volante comes out top overall and bookies have him as 2nd fav at 5/1 ................that's not a bad price but looks a bit exposed now so drive on looks of more interest .......ran a good time and should be able to hold his own in this grade ........he is on offer at 9/1 with sky and betvic .........that looks very much value to me ..........scruffy tramp and golden amber are very difficult to weigh up ...............overall they have the class to win this but times don't seem to back up the class ratings .........but golden amber could come on a lot from that first run so could be a danger at 10/1 ............ill take both against this fav drive on 2pts win 9/1 betvic golden amber 2pts win 10/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: flat racing sat 15th feb 2.15 Lingfield This is an absolute belter of a card but have to pinch myself to remind it is a Saturday and my luck on Saturday is non existent but unless you try you don’t know! Presburg can be forgiven his run last time out given that was on fibresand at Southwell, he had previously been in good form running well in competitive Saturday type races at Kempton and Lingfield, never won off a mark this high and latest effort around here certainly suggested he was probably held by the handicapper although ease in grade helpful. Mawaakef again consistent but on a lengthy losing run he is atleast on his last winning mark. Wide draw and better form away from here a concern. Gabrials Star is respected but does spark much enthusiasm in such a hot race after a lengthy lay off. Scottish Star finally proved he does stay this sort of trip when winning last time out in a 6 runner event around here, this might be more of a test with a 3lb rise although apprentice used to take off 5lb, never won off a mark this high. St Ignatius looks held by the handicapper at present for all he is running well of late. Lilac Tree was the winner of St Ignatius last race and he continued the great form the yard have been in recently when bouncing back from lesser efforts. 4lb rise not excessive if running aswell this time although overall profile is patchy in places. Ocean Applause a winner last time out over 1m2f but has stamina to prove over this 1m4f trip off a 5lb higher mark. Sagesse ran well on handicap debut but didn’t look entirely straightforward and appeared to have a high head carriage and difficult to get him to go forward until last couple strides. 2lb higher in a stronger race needs to find a bit more and looks the sort of Prescott horse who will thrive with some sort of headgear which is missing at present. Music Man looks the value option against this lot, only had the 2 runs improving massively on his debut run last time out winning an average looking maiden for the time of year around here over 1m2f, 2f further today on handicap debut appeared to be staying well though last time out and looks the sort to progress much further in time. 1pt e/w Music Man 8/1 coral 3.25 Lingfield Luhaif is a classy sort but is clearly not easy to win with, only 1 win from 17 starts and also not guaranteed a soft lead in a race like this off top weight and wide draw probably best avoided. Consign has no record fresh and was well held off new mark when last seen on turf, did win a maiden on polytrack so does handle it. Birdman ran no sort of race last time out and should have fared better which is a worry, he has also shown some quirkiness around the stalls which is a worry. Tellovoi won a handicap at Southwell and then 2 weak claimers before receiving a rise in the weights and struggling to land a blow last time out back at Southwell, something to prove off a mark this high. Rebellious Guest has returned to form recently making it 2 from 2 at Lingfield last time out, further 6lb higher today, the 2^nd and 3^rd boosted the form having run well next time out off their revised marks. This mark requires career best but clearly thriving but price is short enough at around 7/2. George Guru is consistent on the AW and great effort last time out in a stronger race than this but he is still 5lb higher than his last winning mark. Talented Kid has had a strange route into the flat sphere having started out as a bumper horse for John Ferguson then joining Johnston (usually the other way round). Not done anything wrong in 2 handicaps since winning maiden, not seen since September and another 2lb higher, makes AW debut after a lengthy break but yard atleast in good form and market will tell how ready he is for this. Mias Boy is consistent and especially around here at Lingfield and enjoys these competitive well run handicaps but is usually opposable for the win purposes these days but is far too bigger price to ignore in this. Only beaten 2 1/1lengths by Rebellious Guest last time out and he is priced at 7/2 yet Mias Boy is priced at 16/1 with a 6lb turnaround doesn’t make sense. Mias Boy is 5lb below his last winning mark aswell now and should continue to give a good run for your money! 1pt e/w Mias Boy 16/1 coral 4.30 Lingfield Commissar was in good form on penultimate start in October not so good off revised mark last time out in November and has a lot to prove over this shorter trip today. Captain Starlight isn’t fully exposed and a respectable effort last time out without striking as a next time out winner with an awkward head carriage aswell. Tee It Up Tommo should have won easier than he did last time out and he is clearly quirky and holds something back for himself, not for the first time nearly didn’t win when he should of and I would not want him carrying my money anymore with a 3lb rise just fair. Intomist doesn’t look an obvious improver for this step up in trip and certainly doesn’t stand out as needing this step up. Run It Twice has been running well last 4 starts without winning, dropped a 1lb today and is back on his last winning mark and should continue to go well. Club House looks the safest option, he has won his last 2 starts better than ever last time out bolting clear in an apprentice race under a penalty, actually gets into this race 2lb lower than when winning that last 3 days ago as new mark has come in and no penalty, apprentice who won last time out on him is able to also claim all 7lb which he couldn’t last time out. Should be very hard to beat. 2pt win Club House 15/8 Seaniemac