Stribs Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Hey. I've been looking at the 'Red card' market (Bet-at-home.com) which is 1.15 for 'No red card in the game'. I've only been looking at the Premiership, Championship and Scottish premiership. There are so few red cards in comparison to the amount of games (4 out of 30 games on Saturday), that I feel there is a chance of missing those red cards on a weekend and making some pennies. I added up each individuals players red and yellow cards points from http://www.transfermarkt.com/en/premier-league/suenderkartei/wettbewerb_GB1.html and have noted which teams are the least dirty. Noted when the least dirty teams are playing each other, making sure a ref who is not card happy is reffing and boom!! Winner. (Wouldnt it be nice if thats how it works!) 4 of these bets together add up to odds of 1.75. I'm going to start with £50 and hoping to get to around £400 (I want a PS4). This should need about 15 games not to have a red card in them. Starting this weekend coming up. Arsenal v Fulham (I dont think it comes under the fierce London derby that would see tough tackles) Manchester City v Cardiff Leeds v Leicester Hibs v St Mirren Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... Great start! £50 now £87.45 We had a real scare in Scotland with 5 red cards within 6 games, but Hibs v St Mirren snuck through, as the system picked them out to be the least dirtiest teams. I'll add all the yellow and red cards from this weekend to see if any teams who were good picks now become reckless tacklers (St Johnstone 2 red cards is not going to help them ever get picked!) This week 8 red cards in 25 games, which I still feel is a good enough ratio to find the 17 games that aren't going to get red cards. I'll write out the ratings I have with the new points added, Dirtiest to least.... (1 point a yellow, 3 points for a 2 yellow red card, 5 for a straight red) Premiership: Sunderland - 51 Stoke - 55 West Ham - 49 Man Utd - 45 Aston Villa - 46 Swansea - 40 Newcastle - 43 Hull - 42 Tottenham - 42 Chelsea - 34 Evertpn - 37 Arsenal - 38 Southampton - 34 Man City - 36 West Brom - 36 Norwich - 37 C. Palace - 31 Fulham - 27 Liverpool - 24 Cardiff - 23 Championship: Blackpool - 76 Notts Forest - 61 Blackburn - 58 Middlesboro - 58 Millwall - 56 Barnsley - 48 Brighton - 48 Watford - 46 Yeovil - 50 Reading - 47 Bournemouth - 46 Wigan - 45 Sheffield Wed - 49 Charlton - 48 Huddersfield - 44 Derby - 43 Brmingham - 39 Bolton - 39 Leeds - 36 Doncaster - 33 Burnley - 32 Ipswich - 33 QPR - 30 Leicester - 32 Scottish Prem: Hearts - 64 Aberdeen - 47 Partick - 50 Motherwell - 45 Dundee - 45 Ross County - 55 Hibs - 43 Kilmarnock - 40 St Johnston - 52 Inverness - 37 St Mirren - 39 Celtic - 24 Theres a few other leagues i've found also have this market. I like the look of the Dutch and the German leagues, I can't be trusting the Spanish or Italian. Will get onto next weeks fixtures! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... Dutch Prem: Roda - 68 Heerenveen - 50 Den Haag - 49 RKC Waal - 41 Heracles - 38 Breda - 37 NEC Nijmegen - 41 Alkmaar - 41 Utrect - 41 Cambuur Lee - 37 Feyenord - 37 Go ahead Eagles - 35 Twente - 29 PSV - 29 PEC Zwolle - 23 Vitesse - 21 Ajax - 16 German Bundesliga Hannover - 56 Mainz - 50 Freiburg - 42 Augsborg - 39 Hoffenheim - 39 B. Leverkusen - 36 Wolfsburg - 37 Werder Breman - 37 Frankfurt - 34 Hertha Berlin - 34 Nurmberg - 31 Stuttgart - 34 Hamburg - 28 TSV - 30 Shalke - 30 Monchengladbach - 28 B. Dortmund - 23 Bayern Munich - 21 We have one low scoring stats game tomorrow, PSV 27 v Ajax 15 = 42 (60 is the cut off mark) £87.45 @ 1.15 Good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... Perfect! Not a card of any colour to be found in the PSV v Ajax game! Now £100.56. The next game is Friday, Bayern Munich (17) v Monchengladbach - (26) = 42. £100.56 @ 1.15 Also I was tempted with the Chelsea v Man Utd game but saw that Phil Dowd was the referee and saw he was keen to give out yellows and reds willy nilly, good miss. Looking ahead to the weekend (Presumptuous getting through Friday). No red card market for the F.A Cup so 4 selections outside the UK. Saturday - Holland: Breda (37) v Zwolle (21) = 58 Germany: Dortmund (21) v Augsburg (37) = 58 Sunday - Holland: Vitesse (21) v Nijmegen (37) = 58 Holland: Go Ahead Eagles (33) v Ajax (15) = 48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... B'munich v the gladbach gets through with 3 yellows and a penalty but no rouge! £115.64 So we go forward onto tomorrow putting the lot on the aforementioned Saturday games. There has been a few games during this week so will add those points on, which include another Roda red card which cements there position as the dirtiest team in Holland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... Were through Saturday, 2 games on Sunday to get us to £200+ Then things get serious! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... Nice thread good take on the cards market and solid strategy with the accumulator perhaps take out ur £50 if Sunday ok for a retry lol Sent from my XT1032 using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... £202.26 Fantastic weekend for no red cards, not a single one in all the leagues i cover. Which makes me feel i should higher my cut off mark, however hindsight is always a wonderful thing. More importantly no red cards in our selected games. I would withdraw but now were up to £200 1.15 starts making a dent. Im confident in the system that £400 is obtainable. Been very busy last week so haven't updated stats. Will take a night to look for our next games and reevaluate where were at. Thanks for the words Anaconda. Really enjoying this. (Its winning. Course i am) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... Interesting thread. I hope you reach your target :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... That website's very comprehensive! I'd been using www.adamchoi.co.uk for some stats but yours seems far more thorough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... Interesting thread. I hope you reach your target :ok Thanks Jay. All points updated, may not be in order any more because it was a real pain moving each team into the correct position. Its going to be increasingly harder to find those 60 and under ratings, may have to adjust the cut off as the weeks go on, although its all about the weekend. However we do have 1 game mid week, Wednesday. Were off to Germany. Stuttgart (29) v Bayern (18) = 47 £202.26 @ 1.15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scakul Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... Good luck and congrats with the wins so far but do you not get worried with this sort of bet? this isn't one I'd touch with big stakes. You can look at all the stats you like but it all it takes is one moment of madness from any of the 22 players on the pitch, or a card-happy ref and you're screwed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... It is more likely that I've just got lucky at missing games with red cards. However i do feel red cards come from dirty players. The biggest fears are penalties and last man fouling. I do feel this is a 2nd half of the season system where teams/players have established how dirty there going to be. The idea Im working with is 2 teams who are not necessarily dirty will play nice. On the other side QPR have one of the lowest ratings, yet they have the no.2 dirtiest championship player on their team, Joey Barton. Bit of a warped system but importantly no red cards in the selected games. I think it might be 4/5 games left to hit the £400+ mark. Good luck us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... Germany prevails!! With a barrage of 8 yellow cards, but the kind referee keeping the reds in his pocket. £232.60 The last couple of days has given me a great boost in the system. I was annoyed that there were so many games being played, and the system couldn't find any games, besides the 1 we grabbed. However how the last 2 days have gone with red cards popping up absolutely everywhere (See image below, 10 red in 24 games!) it makes me feel better about being patient, and more confident in getting to my target. Will have a look for later in the week, or perhaps just look towards the weekend. Another nice little thing to take away is Sunderland vs Stoke having a red card in their game, with them being the 2 dirtiest teams in the premiership as per the system. Perhaps a look at where the red cards are coming from and grabbing some of the 3/1 on 'Yes' to a red card in the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Js90 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... Nice going Stribs good luck hitting your target :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... Friday: Germany: TSV (30) v Dortmund (23) = 53 Dutch: Feyenord (37) v Vitesse (21) = 58 If we get through Friday, we will be left with 2 results to get the grand prize, very very exciting times. I hope attempting to make £350 profit is glory enough for the folks here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... Nice going Stribs good luck hitting your target :hope Thanks Sam. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... NO RED CARDS! NO RED CARDS!!!! Fantastic..... apologies, it was £232.60 @ 1.32 which has now returned £307.61. It is far more horrible waiting for something not to happen, especially as you see the yellow cards start stacking up. And so.... we are left with 2 games to find to get to the target which is thoroughly exciting. Will find those 2 precious games later tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... And so..... it is done (ahhhhhhhhh!!!!!) £307.61 @ 1.32 (ahhhhhhhh!!!!!!) Bayern Munich (21) v Frankfurt (34) = 56 Utrecht (41) v Ajax (16) = 57 When Sunday comes..... Good luck good luck!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... Chelsea man city value on betfair 1.3+ do you think? They are both under 40 for red cards. Add to 70 but the price seems to warrant a thought on this. Mike dean 15 games 3reds only. Sent from my XT1032 using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... Mariner and madley look like refs to miss premier incidentally. Sent from my XT1032 using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... One game to go good luck this afternoon ;-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... Chelsea man city value on betfair 1.3+ do you think? They are both under 40 for red cards. Add to 70 but the price seems to warrant a thought on this. Mike dean 15 games 3reds only. Sent from my XT1032 using PL Forum 3 red cards in 15 games is not a good ratio in my eyes. Especially in the most important game for the 2 clubs at the moment. 1 game down in the Sunday double to glory.Utrecht v Ajax Bayern v Frankfurt ftw! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... @1.33 willhill 3 from 15 games means if u have 1 per 5 games its 1.2 odds paired with ur stats I thought was value Sent from my XT1032 using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... 3 red cards in 15 games is not a good ratio in my eyes. Especially in the most important game for the 2 clubs at the moment. 1 game down in the Sunday double to glory.Utrecht v Ajax Bayern v Frankfurt ftw! Looking good ht Xbox one here it comes Sent from my XT1032 using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... Haha never turn to the Xbox side!! 12 minutes left!!!!!!!!!! PLAY NIIICEEEE!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Red Devil Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... :nana :clap :cow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... Great job! :). Enjoy your ps4. Sent from my Nexus 4 using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... YEEEEEEAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!! ABSOLUTELY FANTASTIC!!!! So so happy!!! Ending with no cards at all in the Germany game! Out at the moment but will conclude how its gone and cheer more later! Thanks for the words. Really could not have gone better. Have we beaten the bookies.... hmmm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Re: No Red Cards.... If you have you should keep it quiet the odds would move if you have continued success... Only so far obviously as it would be red card backers benefitting otherwise. I've tried to find a way to backtest not successful yet without a lot of manual input Sent from my XT1032 using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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