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Binchys Stats Train 2014


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Those who saw my thread last year will know how this works, but just a quick reminder for those who didn't : I have developed this system based on Trainer and Jockey profit/loss (P/L) to level stakes and strike rate over the last 5 years taken from the Racing Post Website. Trainers stats are broken down into three areas (Course, Type of Race and Jockey). This is then broken down further to show the strike rate and P/L in each area (Hurdles, Chase, Bumpers) or for the flat (2yo, 3yo, 4yo+). Jockey stats are shown in the same way, obviously including records for specific trainers. Areas I am interested in are those that have a 40% strike rate, or at least 33% strike rate and over +£25 P/L, 25% strike rate and over +£50 P/L or, 20% strike rate and over +£100 P/L I keep a word document which shows all the areas on interest which is updated weekly. As it would be pretty unrealistic to keep track of all trainers and jockeys, I would estimate I have taken into account the trainers/jockeys with at least 20 winners based on this and last years stats. I then go through all race cards daily and see if there are any matches. If yes, these will be our selections for the day. I have tried to look at the selections more in depth using my own opinions, but this often results in discarding 66/1 shots that win or backing even money favourites heavily that lose. Once these have been listed, I then work out how many points to stake on each selection. I will post the stats that back up the selection. Hoping to keep this going through the year as I got a little downbeat last year when the results started taking a turn for the worse after starting pretty well.

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Forgot to mention that bets are placed with Bet365 and are Best Odds Guaranteed. Todays Selections : 5.00 - Wol - Coiltte Cailin 1pt 6/1 - Shane Kelly/Daniel Loughnane on 4yo+ (20-77, 26%, +£57.03) 5.30 - Wol - Clockmaker 1pt 11/2 - George Baker @ Wolverhampton on 4yo+ (48-230, 21%, +£100.59) 6.00 - Wol - Disco Dave 1pt 6/1 - Shane Kelly/Daniel Loughnane on 4yo+ (20-77, 26%, +£57.03)

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014

Hoping to keep this going through the year as I got a little downbeat last year when the results started taking a turn for the worse after starting pretty well.
I found your previous thread very interesting and I too hope you keep it up this year. Bear in mind that it can take less than a handful of winners for a seemingly downward spiral to return to profit. Almost always seems to be the way with systems. Best of luck and long live Binchy's Stats!
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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Thanks for your kind comments Karijini, I shall do my best! Not a bad start. Results : 5.00 - Wol - Coiltte Cailin 1pt 6/1 - Shane Kelly/Daniel Loughnane on 4yo+ (20-77, 26%, +£57.03) Placed -1 5.30 - Wol - Clockmaker 1pt 11/2 - George Baker @ Wolverhampton on 4yo+ (48-230, 21%, +£100.59) Lost -2 6.00 - Wol - Disco Dave 1pt 6/1 - Shane Kelly/Daniel Loughnane on 4yo+ (20-77, 26%, +£57.03) Won +4 Running Stats Bets - 3 Won - 1 Staked - 3pts Returned - 7pts Profit/Loss - +4pts Strike Rate - 33%

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Todays Selections : 3.10 - Lin - Doctor Parkes 1pt 25/1 - Stuart Williams over 5-6f with 4yo+ (32-117, 27%, +£52.31) Just the one today unless there any any jockey changes at Newcastle as a result of the abandonments.

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Results : 3.10 - Lin - Doctor Parkes 1pt 25/1 - Stuart Williams over 5-6f with 4yo+ (32-117, 27%, +£52.31) Lost -1 Running Stats Bets - 4 Won - 1 Staked - pts Returned - 7pts Profit/Loss - +3pts Strike Rate - 25% No Selections for tomorrow.

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Tomorrows Selections : 12.55 - Sou - Off The Wall 2pts 7/4 Tom Scudamore @ Southwell in chases (9-22, 41%, +£10.91) 1.55 - Sou - Accordingtojodie 1pt N/R Nicky Henderson in Novice Hurdles (198-613, 32%, +£66.32) 2.30 - Sou - Earth Amber 2pts 1/1 Nicky Henderson in Novice Hurdles (198-613, 32%, +£66.32) 2.40 - Wol - Matraash 3pts 13/8 Shane Kelly/Daniel Loughnane with 4yo+ (21-79, 27%, +£61.03) 3.10 - Wol - Shirazz 2pts 7/2 George Baker @ Wolverhampton with 4yo+ (48-231, 21%, +£99.59) Those with no prices will be updated in the morning.

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 12.55 - Sou - Off The Wall 2pts 7/4 Tom Scudamore @ Southwell in chases (9-22, 41%, +£10.91) PU -2 1.55 - Sou - Accordingtojodie 1pt N/R Nicky Henderson in Novice Hurdles (198-613, 32%, +£66.32) N/R -2 2.30 - Sou - Earth Amber 2pts 1/1 Nicky Henderson in Novice Hurdles (198-613, 32%, +£66.32) placed -4 2.40 - Wol - Matraash 3pts 13/8 Shane Kelly/Daniel Loughnane with 4yo+ (21-79, 27%, +£61.03) lost -7 3.10 - Wol - Shirazz 2pts 7/2 George Baker @ Wolverhampton with 4yo+ (48-231, 21%, +£99.59) placed -9 Running Stats Bets - 8 Won - 1 Staked - 13pts Returned - 7pts Profit/Loss - -6pts Strike Rate - 13%

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Nearly some good luck with Un Anjou, good ride by Fehily but horse idled on the run in despite jumping the better. Results : 12.45 - Lei - Ashes House - Mccoy @ Leicster over hurdles (15-25, 60%, +?15.18) 1pt 5/1 lost -1 2.55 - Lei - Un Anjou - Fehily @ Leicester in chases (8-18, 44%, +19.39) 1pt 5/1 placed -2 Running Stats Bets - 10 Won - 1 Staked - 15pts Returned - 7pts Profit/Loss - -8pts Strike Rate - 10%

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Tomorrows Selections 12:10 - Don - Save The Bees - Costello @ Doncaster over Hurdles (11-42, 26%, +68.63) 1pt 25/1 12:40 - Don - Forced Family Fun - Quinn @ Doncaster over hurdles (8-24, 33%, +41.58) 1pt 5/1 1.10 - Don - My Destination - Costello @ Doncaster over Hurdles (11-42, 26%, +68.63) 1pt 50/1 1.40 - Don - Karinga Dancer - Fehily/Fry in Chases (9-22, 41%, +24.68), Fry in Novice Chases - (12-18, 67%, +10.18) 6pts 8/11 2.10 - Don - Daylan - Costello @ Doncaster over Hurdles (11-42, 26%, +68.63) 1pt 50/1 2.45 - Don - Triangular - Fehily/Fry in Chases (9-22, 41%, +24.68) 2pts 9/2, Global Warming - Lavelle @ Doncaster in chases (6-10, 60%, +16.50) 1pt 9/1 Other prices will be advised in the morning.

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Really regretting the 6pts on Karinga Dancer as usually as a rule I don't back odds on shots, one to remember for next time. Results: 12:10 - Don - Save The Bees - Costello @ Doncaster over Hurdles (11-42, 26%, +68.63) 1pt 25/1 lost -1 12:40 - Don - Forced Family Fun - Quinn @ Doncaster over hurdles (8-24, 33%, +41.58) 1pt 5/1 won +4 1.10 - Don - My Destination - Costello @ Doncaster over Hurdles (11-42, 26%, +68.63) 1pt 50/1 lost +3 1.40 - Don - Karinga Dancer - Fehily/Fry in Chases (9-22, 41%, +24.68), Fry in Novice Chases - (12-18, 67%, +10.18) 6pts 8/11 lost -3 2.10 - Don - Daylan - Costello @ Doncaster over Hurdles (11-42, 26%, +68.63) 1pt 50/1 lost -4 2.45 - Don - Triangular - Fehily/Fry in Chases (9-22, 41%, +24.68) 2pts 9/2 placed -6 Global Warming - Lavelle @ Doncaster in chases (6-10, 60%, +16.50) 1pt 9/1 lost -7 Running Stats Bets - 17 Won - 2 Staked - 28pts Returned - 13pts Profit/Loss - -15pts Strike Rate - 12%

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Tomorrows Selections : 2.35 - Cat - Sun Cloud 3pts 5/1 - Hughes/Jefferson in chases (12-47, 26%, +£61.30) 4.10 - Wol - Bahama Bay 1pt 9/1 - Williams over 5-6f with 4yo+ (32-118, 27%, +£51.31) 5.10 - Wol - For Shia And Lula 1pt 9/1 - Kelly/Loughnane with 4yo+ (21-80, 26%, +£60.03) 6.10 - Wol - Honest Strike 1pt 9/1 - Kelly/Loughnane with 4yo+ (21-80, 26%, +£60.03)

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Back to the beggining as todays winner takes us back to 0! Results : 2.35 - Cat - Sun Cloud 3pts 5/1 - Hughes/Jefferson in chases (12-47, 26%, +£61.30) won +15 4.10 - Wol - Bahama Bay 1pt 9/1 - Williams over 5-6f with 4yo+ (32-118, 27%, +£51.31) n/r +15 5.10 - Wol - For Shia And Lula 1pt 9/1 - Kelly/Loughnane with 4yo+ (21-80, 26%, +£60.03) lost +14 6.10 - Wol - Honest Strike 1pt 9/1 - Kelly/Loughnane with 4yo+ (21-80, 26%, +£60.03) lost +13 Running Stats Bets - 20 Won - 3 Staked - 33pts Returned - 33pts Profit/Loss - 0pts Strike Rate - 15% No Bets for tomorrow.

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Tomorrows Selections : 12.25 - Kem - Shangani - Treadwell/Williams in chases (27-77, 35%, +130.87) 1pt 6/1 12.35 - Wet - The Ramblin Kid - Hutchinson @ Wetherby over Hurdles (5-15, 33%, +£25.13) 1pt 25/1 12.55 - Lin - Welease Bwian - Stuart Williams over 5-6f with 4yo+ (32-118, 27%, +51.31) 3pts 5/1 1.35 - Kem - Josses Hill - Henderson in Novice hurdles (198-614, 32%, +65.32) 1pt 5/1 Royal Boy - Henderson in Novice hurdles (198-614, 32%, +65.32) 1pt 8/1 1.45 - Wet - Allied Answer - Hutchinson @ Wetherby over Hurdles (5-15, 33%, +£25.13) 5pts 7/2 2.10 - Kem - Pepite Rose - Treadwell/Williams in chases (27-77, 35%, +130.87) 1pt 13/2 2.50 - Wet - Society Shares - Hutchinson @ Wetherby over Hurdles (5-15, 33%, +£25.13) 1pt 9/2 3.15 - Kem - Relax - Treadwell/Williams in chases (27-77, 35%, +130.87) 2pts 4/1 4.05 - War - Superior Fire - Woods/Longsdon in Bumpers (19-73, 26%, +53.45) 2pts 3/1 Those without prices will be updated in the morning.

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Quite please with today with the big pts selection going in and was willing on McCoy on Royal Boy on the run in for the extra pts. May have been even better if Welease Bwian had got going a bit earlier but can't be greedy. Results : 12.25 - Kem - Shangani - Treadwell/Williams in chases (27-77, 35%, +130.87) 1pt 6/1 placed -1 12.35 - Wet - The Ramblin Kid - Hutchinson @ Wetherby over Hurdles (5-15, 33%, +£25.13) 1pt 25/1 lost -2 12.55 - Lin - Welease Bwian - Stuart Williams over 5-6f with 4yo+ (32-118, 27%, +51.31) 3pts 5/1 placed -5 1.35 - Kem - Josses Hill - Henderson in Novice hurdles (198-614, 32%, +65.32) 1pt 5/1 placed -6 Royal Boy - Henderson in Novice hurdles (198-614, 32%, +65.32) 1pt 8/1 won (@ 9/1) +3 1.45 - Wet - Allied Answer - Hutchinson @ Wetherby over Hurdles (5-15, 33%, +£25.13) 5pts 7/2 won +20.5 2.10 - Kem - Pepite Rose - Treadwell/Williams in chases (27-77, 35%, +130.87) 1pt 13/2 lost +19.5 2.50 - Wet - Society Shares - Hutchinson @ Wetherby over Hurdles (5-15, 33%, +£25.13) 1pt 9/2 lost +18.5 3.15 - Kem - Relax - Treadwell/Williams in chases (27-77, 35%, +130.87) 2pts 4/1 lost +16.5 4.05 - War - Superior Fire - Woods/Longsdon in Bumpers (19-73, 26%, +53.45) 2pts 3/1 placed +14.5 Running Stats Bets - 30 Won - 5 Staked - 51pts Returned - 65.50pts Profit/Loss - +14.50pts Strike Rate - 17%

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Todays Results : 1.30 - Wol - Nafa - Kelly/Loughnane on 4yo+ (21-82, 26%, +58.03) 1pt 6/1 lost -1 Running Stats Bets - 31 Won - 5 Staked - 52pts Returned - 65.50pts Profit/Loss - +13.50pts Strike Rate - 16% Tomorrows Selections : 3.00 - Plu - Avoca Promise - De Giles @ Plumpton in chases (5-11, 45%, +17.75) 1pt 4/1

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Results : 3.00 - Plu - Avoca Promise - De Giles @ Plumpton in chases (5-11, 45%, +17.75) 1pt 4/1 lost -1 Running Stats Bets - 32 Won - 5 Staked - 53pts Returned - 65.50pts Profit/Loss - +12.50pts Strike Rate - 16% No selections for tomorrow.

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Tomorrows Selections : 1.20 - New - Dark Lover - Jacob in Novice Chases (81-246, 33%, +110.13) 4pts Odds on at the moment, no bet unless price change. 1.50 - New - Full Shift - Henderson in Novice Hurdles (199-616, 32%, +73.32) 2pts 2/1 In Fairness - Henderson in Novice Hurdles (199-616, 32%, +73.32) 1pt n/r 5.25 - Kem - Diplomatic - Kirby/Squance with 4yo+ 5-15, 33%, +50.00) 2pts 4/1 Prices will be updated tomorrow.

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Results : 1.20 - New - Dark Lover - Jacob in Novice Chases (81-246, 33%, +110.13) 4pts Odds on at the moment, no bet unless price change. No bet, price did change to evens at one point but I was on my lunch hour, and it lost anyway. 1.50 - New - Full Shift - Henderson in Novice Hurdles (199-616, 32%, +73.32) 2pts 2/1 placed -2 In Fairness - Henderson in Novice Hurdles (199-616, 32%, +73.32) 1pt n/r -2 5.25 - Kem - Diplomatic - Kirby/Squance with 4yo+ 5-15, 33%, +50.00) 2pts 4/1 won (rule4 20p) +4.4 Running Stats Bets - 34 Won - 6 Staked - 57pts Returned - 73.90pts Profit/Loss - +16.90pts Strike Rate - 18%

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Tomorrows Selections : 1.40 - Lud - Red Rock - Aspell/Lavelle in chases (5-12, 42%, +9.50) 1pt 5/1 1.50 - Win - Bennys Mist - Treadwell/Williams in chases (27-80, 34%, +127.87) 2pts 4/1 2.00 - Mra - Chalk It Down - Mccoy/Greatrex over hurdles (8-19, 42%, +7.25) 2pts 9/4 2.20 - Win - Yellow Ball - Treadwell/Williams in chases (27-80, 34%, +127.87) 1pt 11/1 3.00 - Mra - Firth Of The Clyde - Hughes/Jefferson in chases (13-48, 27%, +65.30) 4pts 9/4 3.20 - Win - Wilton Milan - Jacob in Novice Chases (81-246, 33%, +110.13) 2pts 7/2 6.30 - Wol - Matraash - Kelly/Loughnane with 4yo+ (21-83, 25%, +57.03) 4pts (Currently no bet as selection is odds on, no bet unless it reaches evens at some point during the day and I notice)

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Results : 1.40 - Lud - Red Rock - Aspell/Lavelle in chases (5-12, 42%, +9.50) 1pt 5/1 Pulled Up -1 1.50 - Win - Bennys Mist - Treadwell/Williams in chases (27-80, 34%, +127.87) 2pts 4/1 Won +7 2.00 - Mra - Chalk It Down - Mccoy/Greatrex over hurdles (8-19, 42%, +7.25) 2pts 9/4 Lost +5 2.20 - Win - Yellow Ball - Treadwell/Williams in chases (27-80, 34%, +127.87) 1pt 11/1 Placed +4 3.00 - Mra - Firth Of The Clyde - Hughes/Jefferson in chases (13-48, 27%, +65.30) 4pts 9/4 Won @ 11/4 +15 3.20 - Win - Wilton Milan - Jacob in Novice Chases (81-246, 33%, +110.13) 2pts 7/2 Fell +13 6.30 - Wol - Matraash - Kelly/Loughnane with 4yo+ (21-83, 25%, +57.03) 4pts No bet due to price, horse won @ 1/2 Running Stats Bets - 40 Won - 8 Staked - 69pts Returned - 98.90pts Profit/Loss - +29.90pts Strike Rate - 20%

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Tomorrows Selections : 3.20 - Mus - Aneyeforaneye - Hughes/Jefferson in chases (14-49, 29%, +68.05) 1pt 7/1 Palos Conti - Ellison @ Musselburgh in chases (6-15, 40%, +14.71) 1pt 8/1 4.05 - Lin - Honest Strike - Kelly/Loughnane with 4yo+ (22-84, 26%, +57.53) 1pt 7/1

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Results : 3.20 - Mus - Aneyeforaneye - Hughes/Jefferson in chases (14-49, 29%, +68.05) 1pt 7/1 lost -1 Palos Conti - Ellison @ Musselburgh in chases (6-15, 40%, +14.71) 1pt 8/1 lost -2 4.05 - Lin - Honest Strike - Kelly/Loughnane with 4yo+ (22-84, 26%, +57.53) 1pt 7/1 lost -3 Running Stats Bets - 43 Won - 8 Staked - 72pts Returned - 98.90pts Profit/Loss - +26.90pts Strike Rate - 19% Tomorrows Selections : 12.15 - Lin - Yourinthewill - Kelly/Loughnane with 4yo+ (22-85, 26%, +56.53) 1pt 7/2 1.15 - Asc - Kingcora - Treadwell/Williams in chases (28-82, 34%, +129.62) 3pts 9/2 2.05 - Hay - Stand To Reason - Henderson in novice hurdles (199-617, 32%, +72.32) 2pts 9/2 2.35 - Lin - Welease Bwian - Williams over 5-6f with 4yo+ (32-119, 27%, +50.31) 2pts 6/1 2.40 - Hay - Act Of Kalanisi - McCoy/Newland over hurdles (9-20, 45%, +4.15) 1pt 8/1 3.00 - Asc - Renard - Treadwell/Williams in chases (28-82, 34%, +129.62) 1pt 9/2

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Rubbish Today! Results : 12.15 - Lin - Yourinthewill - Kelly/Loughnane with 4yo+ (22-85, 26%, +56.53) 1pt 7/2 placed -1 1.15 - Asc - Kingcora - Treadwell/Williams in chases (28-82, 34%, +129.62) 3pts 9/2 lost -4 2.05 - Hay - Stand To Reason - Henderson in novice hurdles (199-617, 32%, +72.32) 2pts 9/2 lost -6 2.35 - Lin - Welease Bwian - Williams over 5-6f with 4yo+ (32-119, 27%, +50.31) 2pts 6/1 placed -8 2.40 - Hay - Act Of Kalanisi - McCoy/Newland over hurdles (9-20, 45%, +4.15) 1pt 8/1 UR -9 3.00 - Asc - Renard - Treadwell/Williams in chases (28-82, 34%, +129.62) 1pt 9/2 lost -10 Running Stats Bets - 49 Won - 8 Staked - 82pts Returned - 98.90pts Profit/Loss - +16.90pts Strike Rate - 16%

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Non - Runner today Tomorrows Selections : 3.00 - Wol - Summerfree - Fanning over 13f+ on 4yo+ (19-74, 26%, +98.63) 5pts (no bet at the moment, odds on) 4.00 - Wol - Saharia -Kelly/Loughnane with 4yo+ (22-86, 26%, +55.53) 2pts 15/8

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Results : 3.00 - Wol - Summerfree - Fanning over 13f+ on 4yo+ (19-74, 26%, +98.63) 5pts (no bet at the moment, odds on) no bet, lost 4.00 - Wol - Saharia -Kelly/Loughnane with 4yo+ (22-86, 26%, +55.53) 2pts 15/8 won (rule 4 25p) +2.81 Running Stats Bets - 50 Won - 9 Staked - 84pts Returned - 103.71pts Profit/Loss - +19.71pts Strike Rate - 18%

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Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Tomorrows Selections : 12:20 - Wet - Rayak - McCoy @ Wetherby over hurdles (19-46, 41%, +9.49) 3pts 11/10 1.10 - Lei - Tiller Belle - Henderson with novice hurdlers (199-619, 32%, +70.32) 1pt 6/1 1.55 - Wet - Aachen - Treadwell/Williams in chases (28-84, 33%, +127.62) 1pt 5/2 2.30 - Wet - Stonebrook - McCoy @ Wetherby over hurdles (19-46, 41%, +9.49) 1pt 2/1 3.05 - Wet - The Magic Bishop - Hughes/Jefferson in chases (14-50, 28%, +67.05) 1pt 5/1 3.25 - Lei - Grey Wulff - Fehily @ Leicester in chases (8-19, 42%, +18.39) 4pts 15/8 Mentalist - Williams @ Leicester in chases (8-20, 40%, +5.75) 1pt 5/1 3.35 - Wet - Aboloitionist - McCoy @ Wetherby over hurdles (19-46, 41%, +9.49) 3pts 7/2

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