Do 'Derbies' provide any angle we can use ?

[jtw1]

Always kept an eye on MPLouis thread [LocalDerbies] and recently read on another forum that an above average number of draws + high % of Over 2.5 goals are to be expected ...so let's have a wee delve .. EPL or Championship -------------------- ARSENAL v SPURS ......since the formation of the EPL there have been 43 meetings between these 2 with a home/draw/away record of 20/17/6 and 23/43 ending OVER 2.5 goals BUT 13 from the last 14 HAVE finished OVER 2.5. CHELSEA v FULHAM.....since 2001 there have been 25 meetings with a record of 9/10/6 ..11 ending OVER 2.5. All 6 away wins were CHELSEA victories. DERBY v NOTTS FOREST.......since 1996 there have been 21 meetings with a record of 9/8/4....9/21 OVER's BOLTON v WIGAN..........15 meetings since 2005 produced a record of 5/5/5.....7/15 OVER's BLACKBURN v BURNLEY......only 7 meetings since 2000 have produced a record 2/3/2......only 2 Over's MAN U v MAN CITY....since 1992 there have been 33 meetings with a record of 15/6/12 and an OVER's record of 17/33 EVERTON v LIVERPOOL....since 1929 there have been 43 meetings with a record of 16/16/11 and an OVER's record of 19/43 NEWCASTLE v SUNDERLAND....since 1996 there have been 23 meetings with a record of 6/9/8 and an OVERS record of 12/23 CARDIFF v SWANSEA.....have met 17 times in 4 different leagues since 1993 , the record is 7/5/5.....7/17 were OVER 2.5 The first thing i notice is that betting blindly OVER 2.5 Goals appears to be a negative . However the number of draws is very eyecatching with a total home/draw/away record between the 9 match-ups being 89/79/39. If we remove the Manchester Derby the stats are an even more impressive 74/73/27..!! When you consider that over a season the record for H/D/A last season in ALL games were 166/108/106 it certainly points to the draw bring the preferred bet in Local Derbies . It would be interesting to see if these stats apply to other countries and tbh i see no reason why they shouldn't, although it would always be advisable to check the past h2h as the Manchester game would highlight.

[MPLouis]

Re: Do 'Derbies' provide any angle we can use ? I've never analysed the draw percentage in derbies, but I do know when I research past head to head for individual derbies, there are often a lot of draws, and there seem to be more than for the average game. In theory, the bookies' odds for a draw in a derby should be lower, but I don't think they are (or if they are it's not by much) - so there's some value there. From my own experience, I'd say it's much better (and simpler) to concentrate on UK derbies, if only that, for UK punters like me you're more likely to have some local knowledge of the two teams. But I'm guessing that derbies in at least some Western European countries (perhaps Italy, Germany and Portugal?) also produce a higher draw percentage.

[methuselah]

Re: Do 'Derbies' provide any angle we can use ? I had a quick look at Germany and Italy and there do not seem to be as many Draws as in the U.K. I used the sites footballderbies and Bari 91 for the info. There do not seem to be too many matches either. A deeper study would give more of an idea.