Sky Bet League 2 > Boxing Day

[Aidymac]

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[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Thursday 26 December 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Wycombe Wanderers v Newport County (12:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.62[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.75[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]104.76 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Portsmouth v Dagenham & Redbridge (13:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]105.05 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Torquay United v Bristol Rovers (13:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.87[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]105.09 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Accrington Stanley v York City (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.1[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]104.23 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]AFC Wimbledon v Southend United (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]104.78 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Burton Albion v Northampton Town (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]103.17 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Bury v Scunthorpe United (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.75[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.15 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Cheltenham Town v Exeter City (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.43 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Chesterfield v Hartlepool United (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.83[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]104.86 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Morecambe v Fleetwood Town (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.55[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]104.78 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Oxford United v Plymouth Argyle (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.85[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]104.85 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Rochdale v Mansfield Town (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.87[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]104.27 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[jackierubberleg]

Re: Sky Bet League 2 > Boxing Day Portsmouth-Dagenham; Dagenham 0 ball @ 2.425 b365 Teams that cannot raise the effort in normal season are fairly unlikely to come alive over the festive period. The teams that are doing well in the run-up seem to fair better over the manic yuletide games. It's all about discipline I suppose, and you would have to think that the less disciplined outfits are going to fall foul to a bit of seasonal yo ho ho. I have been in Pompey at this time of the year, it's pretty hard to avoid a good party I have to say. Portsmouth have not won in the past seven, no reason to see that changing in the near future. Dagenham and Redbridge themselves are no world beaters but would have reasonable hopes of the play-offs after a bad start to the season. They sit ten places above Pompey in the table and look the value . GL and a very Merry Christmas to all in the lounge.

[Jase82]

Portsmouth-Dagenham; Dagenham 0 ball @ 2.425 b365 Teams that cannot raise the effort in normal season are fairly unlikely to come alive over the festive period. The teams that are doing well in the run-up seem to fair better over the manic yuletide games. It's all about discipline I suppose, and you would have to think that the less disciplined outfits are going to fall foul to a bit of seasonal yo ho ho. I have been in Pompey at this time of the year, it's pretty hard to avoid a good party I have to say. Portsmouth have not won in the past seven, no reason to see to see that changing in the near future. Dagenham and Redbridge themselves are no world beaters but would have reasonable hopes of the play-offs after a bad start to the season. They sit ten places above Pompey in the table and look the value . GL and a very Merry Christmas to all in the lounge.

I agree. Dagenham are a side I'd expect us to beat but we've been playing awfully for a while now. Draw is all I expect. No one wants to play on boxing day!

[boggen]

Re: Sky Bet League 2 > Boxing Day Burton Albion - Northampton Town League 2 England Thursday 26/12 16:00 Prediction: Burton Albion Odds: 1,85 Stake: 3/10 Bookmaker: Ladbrokes A team in form, who are placed 5th in the table against the bottom team and weakest away side in the division, with on top of this some internal problems and no manager. Burton, 5th in the table. 4 points behind leaders Chesterfield. Burton is a stable team, pretty tight team with the goal difference 25-22 in 21 games, good form having won 3 out of the last 5, and with 2 draws. Northampton, the team that reached the play-off's last season is currently having problems both off and on the pitch. Bottom placed, but only 3 points up to secure ground. Away stats is terrrible, 11-1-2-8 (5-16) They have failed to score in 7 out of the 11 away games. Out of form having won only 1 out of the last 5. Burton is a well balanced team, organized defensively and should have a good chance here at home against a week away side who is not only without form, but also without a manager, even though that their As coach leading them now temporary.

[andypaps28]

Re: Sky Bet League 2 > Boxing Day [h=1]Source : League Two Opta Facts[/h] WycombeV Newport Wycombe have failed to keep a clean sheet in 14 games played on the 26^th of December, winning four (D3 L7). Newport have lost just once in their last five on the road (W1 D3), keeping four clean sheets in the process. Wycombe have scored nine headed goals this season; a joint-league-high alongside Chesterfield. The Chairboys have conceded in each of their last nine league games; the current longest run of its kind. Newport have kept three consecutive clean sheets on the road, drawing two (W1). PortsmouthV Dag & Red Portsmouth have gone six league games without a win on the 26^th December, losing four (D2). Dagenham and Redbridge have gone four games without an away win, losing three (D1). Dagenham have conceded 11 goals via headers this season; a league-high. Portsmouth have dropped 17 points from leading positions this campaign, more than any other side. TorquayV Bristol Rovers Torquay have lost just once in their last nine league meetings at home with Bristol Rovers (W3 D5). Only Northampton (5) have collected fewer away points this season than Bristol Rovers (6). Only Mansfield (9) have collected fewer points at home than Torquay (11) this season. Bristol Rovers have kept three clean sheets in their last four league games. AccringtonV York Accrington have won four of their last five home games against York (L1) in league competition (exc. non-league). York are without an away win in league competition in six games, drawing four (L2). No side has picked up more points from their last 10 games than Accrington Stanley (20). York have scored just one goal in the final fifteen minutes of games this term; a league-low. WimbledonV Southend Wimbledon have kept two clean sheets in their last three home fixtures in league competition. Southend have won four of the last five clashes (all comps) against AFC Wimbledon, although they lost the most recent fixture in March (1-3). No side has scored more first half goals this season than Southend (17). In contrast, Wimbledon have scored just six first half goals this season; a joint-low. BurtonV Northampton Burton are yet to keep a clean sheet at home to Northampton in the league, conceding seven goals in four games. No side has picked up fewer points on the road this season than Northampton (5). Burton have kept three clean sheets in their last five games at home in league competition. The Cobblers have failed to score in three of their last four away games. Burton have won both of their previous league encounters on December 26, one of which was against Northampton (3-2, 2011). Northampton have lost three of their last five away games played on December 26 (W1 D1). BuryV Scunthorpe Bury are unbeaten in four against Scunthorpe in the league, winning three (D1). Scunthorpe have gone four games unbeaten on the road, winning two (D2). Scunthorpe (16) have gone ahead more times in matches than any other side this season, winning 10 and losing once (D5). Bury have picked up just one win in their last seven in league competition, drawing four (L2). CheltenhamV Exeter Cheltenham have won all eight previous meetings with Exeter. Exeter have failed to score in each of their last three league games with Cheltenham. The Grecians are the only side yet to drop any points from leading positions this season. Cheltenham have gone 10 games without defeat (W4 D6); the current longest unbeaten run in League Two. ChesterfieldV Hartlepool Chesterfield have scored 10 goals in their last three games (all comps) against Hartlepool, winning twice (L1). Hartlepool are without an away win in four league games, losing three (D1). Hartlepool have scored seven goals from outside the box in open play this season, a league-high. Chesterfield have kept five clean sheets in their last six league games. MorecambeV Fleetwood Morecambe have failed to score in two of their last three home games. Fleetwood won both fixtures last season, scoring five goals and keeping two clean sheets in the process. Morecambe have salvaged 19 points from losing positions this season, a league-high. No side has scored more second half goals than Fleetwood (21). Oxford UtdV Plymouth Oxford are unbeaten in their last five clashes in all competitions with Plymouth, winning three (D2). Plymouth have conceded in nine of their 10 away fixtures this season and are winless on the road in three. Plymouth are one of five sides yet to receive a red card this season. The Pilgrims have netted a league-low 16 goals this term. Only Fleetwood (34) have scored more goals this season than Oxford (32). RochdaleV Mansfield Rochdale have won their last four league games against Mansfield, scoring nine and keeping three clean sheets. Mansfield are without an away victory in six games, losing three and drawing three. In those six games, the Stags have failed to score in five, finding the net four times in the other. Mansfield are without a win in 12 in league competition, losing eight and drawing four. Mansfield have been shown six red cards this season; a joint-league-high.

[Jase82]

I can't for the life of me find a reason why both Chesterfield and Oxford are priced near evens. Both are playing poor traveling sides who aren't the best in the league. Oxford definitely look like a play as they face Plymouth who struggle to score and always concede away from home. Both look like value. Chesterfield play Hartlepool who are also no great shakes away from home.

[brimmy]

Re: Sky Bet League 2 > Boxing Day Burton V Northampton is a tough game to predict, Boothroyd was sacked after the Wycombe game. Over the whole Boothroyd reign we played appallingly negative tactics away from home and that had a big impact on our struggle for points away from home, usually we just don't look in it until we go behind. With Boothroyd gone now and a much improved squad on the start of the season, we may well actually go for it today so for me this has to be no bet. As bad as we are, I feel like anything could happen today.

[allthethings]

Re: Sky Bet League 2 > Boxing Day

I can't for the life of me find a reason why both Chesterfield and Oxford are priced near evens. Both are playing poor traveling sides who aren't the best in the league. Oxford definitely look like a play as they face Plymouth who struggle to score and always concede away from home. Both look like value. Chesterfield play Hartlepool who are also no great shakes away from home.

I think the reason is that for several years League Two has been a graveyard for home sides priced at under evens, more so than any UK league. This season underdogs of between 4.0 and 4.99 are 15-8-18 (36% outright wins), and the small number of weekday games show the competitiveness to an even greater degree...against all favorites of 1.99 and below, the dogs' weekday mark currently sits at 3-5-2. The books price up league games accordingly, no matter what the matchups are.

[Jase82]

I think the reason is that for several years League Two has been a graveyard for home sides priced at under evens' date=' more so than any UK league. This season underdogs of between 4.0 and 4.99 are 15-8-18 (36% outright wins), and the small number of weekday games show the competitiveness to an even greater degree...against all favorites of 1.99 and below, the dogs' weekday mark currently sits at 3-5-2. The books price up league games accordingly, no matter what the matchups are.[/quote'] Agree home favorites are a poor prospect in this league but its usually odds under 1.8 that put me off. At 1.9 - 1.95 they're being made slight favorites so not selections that fit into the "short priced favorites" category. It would be interesting to hear what the results are for sides priced between 1.9 and 1.99.

[allthethings]

Re: Sky Bet League 2 > Boxing Day

Agree home favorites are a poor prospect in this league but its usually odds under 1.8 that put me off. At 1.9 - 1.95 they're being made slight favorites so not selections that fit into the "short priced favorites" category. It would be interesting to hear what the results are for sides priced between 1.9 and 1.99.

This isn't exactly what you want, as I only keep track of underdogs' odds, and then only at my book, which is more generous than the average (if a match average at BetExplorer lists at 3.25, it's usually about 3.55 at 5dimes). I only play on matches where the favorite is priced at 2.0 or below. But just so you can see how it breaks down for 2013-14 so far: Underdog's closing/late odds (5dimes) > underdog's record 3.56 to 3.79 >>>> 0-5-5 3.8 to 3.99 >>>> 3-0-11 4.0 to 4.19 >>>> 8-1-5 4.2 to 4.39 >>>> 7-4-5 4.4 to 4.59 >>>> 1-1-6 4.6 to 4.79 >>>> 0-2-2 4.8 to 4.99 >>>> 0-1-3 5.0 to 10.5 >>>> 2-3-4 As you can see, the biggest dogs do very well. I don't ordinarily break the numbers down into such small groups, but it shows so far that the outright wins are happening in the 4.0 to 4.39 range...those aren't the favorites of 1.99 or 1.97, those are probably more in the range of 1.8 to 1.9.

[allthethings]

Re: Sky Bet League 2 > Boxing Day I should mention I won today with Plymouth at 4.33, but finished down about half a unit after losing the other four (Exeter, Northampton, Hartlepool and Mansfield).