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Ligue 2 > 20th - 21st December


Jase82

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[TABLE=class: couponTable] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 20 December 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] AS Nancy v Stade Lavallois (19:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.87 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.45 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.1 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.07 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Chamois Niortais v Créteil (19:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.95 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.75 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.69 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Clermont Foot v CA Bastia (19:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.44 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9.75 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.23 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] LB Châteauroux v Dijon FCO (19:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.1 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.15 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.47 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Le Havre AC v AJ Auxerre (19:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.79 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.83 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Nîmes Olympique v Angers SCO (19:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.38 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.89 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] SM Caen v Stade Brestois 29 (19:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.48 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.25 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8.9 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.33 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 21 December 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] AC Arles-Avignon v Tours (13:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.49 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] FC Metz v Troyes AC (13:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.15 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.05 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.51 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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Re: Ligue 2 > 20th - 21st December Caen and Clermont home win values are pathetic. Bastia DC is 3,00, Brest's DC is 2,80. I think one of them will not win at home. Caen - Brest U 2,75 @ 1,70; u 2,5 @ 1,95; u 3 @ 1,50. I don't see Brest take a beating here so unders might be a good idea but Caen defence seems shaky at best. Nancy HW has some value imo, Laval has been playing above their level recently and this might well end here. Just some thoughts, haven't backed any of them yet.

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Re: Ligue 2 > 20th - 21st December Nancy – Laval The hosts have midfielder Amadou Coulibaly suspended, but he’s not an important loss and probably wouldn’t have started here anyway. Nancy have had a very settled squad recently which always helps matters, injuries and suspensions have been at a minimum, although they still have attacker Benjamin Moukandjo injured on the sidelines. This will be the 4th straight game he misses and theres’ no doubt that their attacking capabilities are more limited without him in the side. Laval are also in good condition and have no injuries or suspensions to any important players. Left winger Damien Tiberi is left out of the squad by choice of the close which might signal a defensive intention here, but he was injured last week so it might be that he’s not physically fit enough. Nancy could only draw 0-0 last week away against Istres, which at the time looked like a very bad result. But consider the fact that they were down to 10- men for about 50 mins and it doesn’t seem to bad. Also when you factor in Istres’ display last night at Istres then this might even be classed as an excellent point. Nancy have won 5 out of 7 ligue games under the management of Pablo Correa, they are much better with him at the helm and he’ll be targeting victory in this last game before Christmas. Nancy now have to be classed as a ‘power’ team in ligue 2 and they are definitely a top 5 side, maybe even top 3. Their one weakness is upfront where they lack a good striker. They’ve only scored 4 goals in their last 5 games but equally so have only conceded 1 goal in this period. Laval are unbeaten in 5 games heading into this contest but I can’t help but feel their statistical record is fake. Ok, they legitimately beat Creteil 5-1 but both of their 1-0 away wins at Troyes and Niort have been incredibly lucky. Their tactic in both of those games was to park the bus and counter attack. They have somehow managed to obtain 6 points out of those fixtures despite being routinely battered, other sides missed a number of big chances against them. Also included in this 5 match unbeaten run have been home draws against Arles and Chateauroux, which are pretty poor results considering the opposition. Basically, Laval aren’t as good as their recent record suggests and against a good team like Nancy they could struggle. The visitors might also have a bit of a ‘letdown’ after their good run. They’ve done a lot of hard work recently, it’ll be difficult for them to maintain it. This would’ve been a 10/10 bet had Lens not fucked up for me last night, but I couldn’t stomach losing another one of those this round. Instead, I’ve downgraded it to just 7 units, but I’m very confident about Nancy’s chances. Prediction: Nancy 2-0 Laval Recommended bet: Nancy -0.75 @ 2.13 7/10 Chateauroux – Dijon Chateauroux have no new injuries to worry about here, although they still have a few players missing in all areas of the field. In defence, Sambou is the most notable absentee, whilst CM Luis Ramos is probably their most important loss. The attacking duo of Kinkela and Dupuis both mis out too, but in general the condition of this Chateauroux squad is ok. Dijon have no1 GK Benjamin Lecomte injured for this game which means Florent Perraud will take over. He’s actually one of the better no2 keepers in the Ligue but Lecomte will be missed because he’s been in such good form recently. Dijon still have CB Cedric Varrault injured along with the attacking duo of Thil and Berenguer. They have no other new problems to deal with except their keeper injury, but played on Monday night so have only had a 4 day period to recover. Dijon have only lost 1 game (vs Metz) since the middle of August but I don’t think they are as good as that record suggests., They just don’t outplay enough teams and have relied a lot upon a solid defence, sneaking the odd goal here and there. Don’t get me wrong, DFCO aren’t a bad side, just a bit overrated by some people because of their statistical record. This is a real banana skin game for them because everyone is expecting them to win tonight, they are away favourites with the bookies. But a trip to Chateauroux is never easy, especially because of their artificial pitch. Les Berrichonne haven’t won away from home in over 30 matches, but its a different story at home where they usually play much better football. New coach Jean Louis Garcia has won both of his home matches since taking over a few weeks ago and he’ll be targeting another 3 points here. I like their chances as an underdog and they should head into the contest high on confidence after securing a 94th minute draw at Laval last weekend. Seriously, its so rare that they get anything on the road that they should be really feeling good about themselves here. I don’t think Chateauroux will lose this game which is why I like taking them +0.25. I considered backing them DNB @ a bigger price but Dijon do have a habit of avoiding defeat so I’ll stick with the safer handicap. But I certainly think there’s a good chance the hosts claim victory. Prediction: Chateauroux 1-0 Dijon Recommended bet: Chateauroux +0.25 @ 1.88 5/10 Nimes – Angers There is both good and bad news for Nimes ahead of this game. They welcome back key playmaker Vincent Gragnic from injury and also DM Pierre Bouby. However, they still have issues at the back where Fanchone and Boche are both ruled out. Key CB and Captain Benoit Poulain was ill this week so is unlikely to be playing at 100% capacity, even though he’s included in the squad. Angers, as always have a number of players ruled out for whatever reason. It’s been the same for them since day 1 of this season. At the back, Djibril Konate is suspended although at least stud CB Fabien Boyer returns from injury. Angers are most affected in midfield where the likes of Auriac, Gomez, Sarr and Diers are all injured for this contest, and Ryan Frikeche is suspended. The good news is that their first choice pairing of Manceau and Keita will stay intact and they have a full compliment of attackers from which to choose – minus Alharbi El Jadeyaoui who is once again absent for inconclusive reasons. The big news here is that Nimes sacked their coach Victor Zvunka…..yesterday. This is an absolutely bizarre time to sack a manager. Think about it, Nimes have just had a 2 week break and then after this match they have the winter break which last about 2-3 weeks. Why sack your coach one day before this fixture? It just doesn’t make sense to me, although firing Zvunka was inevitable because he’d lost the dressing room for a while. I don’t see how Nimes can produce any sort of tactical gameplan now, they will likely be a mess and behind the scenes obviously some crazy stuff has been going on. Angers are in a good spot to win this game and this type of fixture should suit them. Nimes have defensive issues which the visitors can exploit, especially on the counter attack at pace. I don’t usually like backing away sides in France, but this is one of the few exceptions. Besides, Angers do have the 2nd best away record in Ligue 2 so are clearly competent on the road. +0.25 is too generous a handicap for them here, there’s a very good chance they can pick up the 3 points. Prediction: Nimes 1-2 Angers Recommended bet: Angers +0.25 @ 1.92 4/10

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Re: Ligue 2 > 20th - 21st December Niort – Creteil Niort have no injury or suspension problems here, they will line up at full strength. The squad has been in really good condition recently which has allowed player continuity. Creteil have GK Kerboriou injured for this game, but its possible he wouldn’t have started anyway. Its unclear at the moment who Creteil’s no1 keeper actually is, but for this particular game Issa N’Doye will start. In midfield, Ibrahima Seck is injured which is a blow. He’s a key engine in the middle of the park for the Parisians and his presence might be missed. I think Niort will win this game but I’m not going to back them. The bookies have their lines set fair exactly where they should be. Niort @ around 1.90-95 is spot on and exactly as I’d have the price myself. Niort are usually fairly strong at home although haven’t been playing that well recently. I suppose they’ve been ok and just been a bit unlucky in certain matches. Creteil have been pretty inconsistent recently too, although their last 2 away matches both ended up as a defeat in worrying fashion. I would back Niort if they were @ a better price, but not as an odds on shot. They failed in this sort of position against Laval a couple of weeks ago and it’s never a surprise if they draw any match considering their recent history. Prediction: Niort 1-0 Laval Recommended bet: None Le Havre – Auxerre HAC have CB Maxime Le Marchand injured for this match. Obviously, his loss is a blow and many would argue he’s their best defender. His injury will end a streak of 13 consecutive starts and his presence as the back could be missed badly. In midfield, Tristan Dingome is rated extremely doubtful, despite being included in the squad. It’s the same upfront where Yohann Riviere is included in the 18, but rated doubtful to even make the bench. However, Riviere hasn’t been such a key player for them this season and his absence is less of a blow. Havre should name an unchanged XI, with the exception of Le Marchand forced out of the team as previously mentioned. Auxerre have both first choice fullbacks injured for this match – Marester and Ramos are ruled out. However, AJA do at least have reasonable cover options at the back and might not be affected too badly. In midifeld, key man Ait Ben Idir returns from injury which is a real boost and upfront Sebastien Haller is included in the squad following a recent absence. Havre played on Tuesday night in the CDL away against Nantes and lost 1-0. Seven of tonights projected XI also started in that fixture so its possible they could be affected negatively in a physical way. But the last time they played in the CDL (and actually went to ET vs Lille) they responded on Friday night and won 4-0! Again, I’m going to back an away underdog in this match which goes against my usual type of bet, but I like the idea of betting against Le Havre in this fixture. Suddenly everyone is right back on HAC’s bandwagon after 2 consecutive wins. They beat Creteil legitimately at home, albeit relying a lot on set pieces. They then parked the bus away at Troyes 1-0 last week and came away with a 1-0 win. In many ways, the result last weekend couldn’t be too much of a shock because Le Havre usually like playing as underdogs and not favourites. They have a terrible record of just 3 wins in 12 games when favoured by the bookies pre match this season, they seem to choke when put in such a position. Their victory against Creteil a couple of weeks ago was a rare example of when they finally did manage to win a game when favoured. What doesn’t help their cause is a terrible pitch standard. Le Stade Oceanne is a wonderful new stadium but it’s pitch is possibly the worst one in Ligue 2 right now and needs to be relayed. Auxerre are not a bad side and definitely not as bad as their away record indicates. Statistically they actually have the 2nd worst away record in Ligue 2 and have only scored a measly 3 times in 8 away fixtures. But if you look in detail, 7 of their away games have ALL been against sides currently inside the top 10! They’ve only had one ‘easy’ away game which was against Istres and they drew it 1-1. Le Havre should be easier opposition and they actually have a chance of getting something tonight. I also think Auxerre will be pretty motivated here, especially star attacker Paul Georges N’tep. This kid is a real talent and one of my favourite prospects in France. It’s a virtual banker he’ll be sold during the winter break so this could be his last game for the club. He’ll really want to perform well tonight and hopefully it might make some of the other Auxerre’ players raise their level too. I’d stake more on the visitors if they hadn’t played Tuesday night but a +0.75 handicap is way too generous. This should be about a +0.25 line! It’s crazy how Havre are suddenly so overrated again. I am personally banned by Paddy Power but for those of you who can actually stake anything half decent there, then backing N’tep FGS & anytime @ 8/1 and 4/1 respectively is definitely worth a shot. Prediction: Le Havre 1-2 Auxerre Recommended bet: Auxerre +0.75 @ 2.02 5/10 Extra bonus pick: PG Ntep FGS (8/1) & Anytime scorer (3/1) @ Paddypower Previews for Clermont – CA Bastia & Caen – Brest will be posted up later if I have time. But neither is likely to be a betting opportunity for me.

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Re: Ligue 2 > 20th - 21st December Caen – Brest Caen have a couple of suspensions in defence here. JJ Pierre and Aurelien Montaroup are banned and would’ve started, both are in fairly good form at the moment. Caen do have depth in defence though and plenty of options they can bring in, so shouldn’t be downgraded too much, if at all. Le Stade Malherbe are at full strength otherwise and have a full compliment of options in midfield and attack. Brest only have one new injury – to midfielder Diallo Guidileye but he won’t be missed that much, if at all. Fullback Bernard Mendy isn’t included in the squad, it seems like Brest might be finished with him and he’ll leave the club in January. The Bretons are at full strength in attack which will please coach Alex Dupont because they’ve lacked availability in the final third for most of the season. Caen will be a popular pick tonight, they always are. People seem to think that they are some sort of awesome side etc, they have a pretty big reputation anyway which I don’t think is deserved. In actual fact, Caen are a very inconsistent team who only win sporadically. Its true they often play some nice football, especially at home but they can’t be relied upon at these sort of prices. Brest haven’t had the best of seasons so far but I think they have the ability to keep it close here. This is the last match before the winter break and they’ll put loads of effort into the contest. Alex Dupont will probably park the bus and invite Caen to try and break them down. This might not be possible and even if Caen win, it might only be by 1 goal. Brest have lost 7 times this season, but only got blown out once (and that was vs ligue leaders Metz). I really wouldn’t be surprised if Brest got something here and frustrate their opponents. I’m not interested in betting in this fixture though. Prediction: Caen 1-1 Brest Recommended bet: None Clermont – CA Bastia The hosts have a couple of suspended players – RB Anthony Lippini and striker Mana Dembele. GK Fabien Farnolle and winger Yannis Salibur are both doubtful because of injury and illness respectively. Clermont had to play away from home on Monday night so have had less time to recover for this game than they usually do. CA Bastia have no new injuries or suspensions to worry about, but about half a dozen players are still injured. Their squad is in better condition than it once was though. Clermont are deserving favourites here, but not by this margin. They just aren’t the sort of team who are likely to blow anyone out, even such a shit side like CA Bastia. The Corsicans were thrashed 5-1 at home to Caen last week, but Clermont don’t possess the sort of attacking talent that the Normans do. It’s true CA Bastia are a really bad side, but even they will have some professional pride and want to respond after their 5-1 hammering. Clermont could be pretty flat too and might struggle with their strong favouritism tag. I’m still picking the hosts to win, but bear in mind CA Bastia have kept clean sheets in both of their last 2 away games. The handicap of -1 @ odds on is just short and this is a clear no bet situation for me. Prediction: Clermont 1-0 CA Bastia Recommended bet: None

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Re: Ligue 2 > 20th - 21st December

Thanks meatman for your insights. Again' date=' people these are just meatman's opinions. Do through research before making your bets and don't come blaming him for a lack of research on your part.[/quote'] mate clean your mailbox, cant send you pm sorry for the offtopic
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Re: Ligue 2 > 20th - 21st December Nancy Laval match was fun. I had actually gone against meatman in-play and laid nancy before laval equalized. I thought Nancy were up against it and then when laval scored I was smiling. Laval was really the team who had the best and the most chances in the match. Nancy's defense was all over the place. And then nancy scored against the run of play. Goes to show there is so much luck involved in football and meatman at best can hit a 10%-15% ROI (return on investment), and cant win them all as some expect with his 10/10 bets.

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Re: Ligue 2 > 20th - 21st December I didn't see any of the games as I was at an xmas do at my local pub. I'll take 3/4 winners. Sorry about Auxerre but clearly they must have been affected by the midweek CDL match, it was a risk I was willing to take. I knew Nancy should've been a 10/10 bet grrrr......but maybe it sounds like I got lucky with them. I was due some luck to be fair I might back both home teams tomorrow. I'm not sure, it depends on team news

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Re: Ligue 2 > 20th - 21st December Arles – Tours The hosts don’t really have any squad problems. The attacking duo of Delcos and Sangare are both suspended, but neither player is that important. The main surprise here is that playmaker Chaouki Ben Saada isn’t included in the squad by choice of the coach, I’ve no idea why. Tours have a few problems in defence, starting in between the sticks where no1 keeper Benjamin Leroy is injured. Key CB Leo Schwechlen is still ruled out too, along with holding midfielder Julien Cetout. TFC do have a full compliment of attackers available to them, but it must be remembered that they played just 3 nights ago away against Troyes in the Coupe de La Ligue. Most of the players who started in that game will likely be in the XI tonight too. I don’t expect this match to be a classic – Arles home games rarely involve much action. They have the best defensive record out of anyone in Ligue 2 having conceded just 12 goals all season. But on the other hand, they have the 2nd worst offence, scoring just 13 times in the same period. For some reason at home they seem to operate very negatively, even against CA Bastia they didn’t push themselves that hard and had to settle for a 0-0 draw. In total, a whopping 15 out of their 17 ligue games have ended under 2.5 this season! But I have a feeling they’ll prevail today because a number of factors are potentially in their favour. The first is that Arles are solid at home and yet to lose a game, ok they’ve drawn a few too many but this isn’t an easy place to travel to. Secondly, the 14:00 kick off time on Saturday in L2 strongly favours home teams, it’s really difficult for away sides to perform well and get results. Only 4 times out of 21 has a visitor picked up 3 points in these fixtures (Lens and Nancy twice who are both pretty good teams). Thirdly, I think it’s going to be really difficult for Tours to recover quickly after their CDL loss on Wednesday night. They had to travel a fair distance away from home and now they have to do the same here. In total, this fixture will kick off less than 65 hours after their cup match finished. I doubt they’ve had enough time to plan many tactics for this fixture either and have to cope with the mental aspect of losing that cup match in stoppage time. Arles -0.25 is the bet for me here, they will probably win something like 1-0. But some sort of draw cover is essential because Franck Dumas’ men have a bad habit of ending too many games all square. Prediction: Arles 1-0 Tours Recommended bet: Arles -0.25 @ 2.03 5/10 Metz – Troyes Metz are in fine shape ahead of this match. Apart from the long term injury to Thibault Bourgeois they have a full compliment of players from which to choose. Talented young playmaker Yeni Ngbakoto returns to the squad after missing last week’s game attending the birth of his child. It’s possible rock at the back Sylvain Marchal might start too. He’s been benched the last few weeks following a lengthy injury but perhaps he could be given the nod today, it’s up to the coach. Troyes don’t have any injury or suspension issues, but it must be factored in that they played on Wednesday night in the CDL and I’d expect a very similar XI to be named here. Metz are top of the table by a 4 point margin and whatever happens today that won’t change. They’ve played the best football in Ligue 2 so far this season and following Lens’ loss on Thursday night I now rank them as the best side in the division. Metz have been really great this year, especially at home where they have a terrific 7-2-0 record. It’s difficult go against them right now because this team has great chemistry. Their 7 game winning streak finally came to an end last week when they lost at Tours, but that might not be a bad thing. They’ll be eager to respond and it might drive them to stronger motivation instead of getting complacent. Pretty much the same factors and trends apply to this match as they do in Arles today. Home advantage at 14:00 etc etc is a great thing for Metz today. Troyes played less than 65 hours ago in the cup and might be physically and emotionally drained. ESTAC are now into the QFs of the CDL and have a favourable draw against Evian in mid January, they may well be looking ahead to that fixture already in their minds. But the single key factor which makes me back Metz today is that they are a class above Troyes. The visitors are a decent outfit but Metz just have something about them this season, they are a quality outfit. I’ll have medium stakes on them -0.5 here and back Les Grenats to deliver, they probably should be an odds on shot. Prediction: Metz 2-0 Troyes Recommended bet: Metz -0.5 @ 2.11 5/10

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Re: Ligue 2 > 20th - 21st December Cheers fellas. I'm pretty pleased with that comeback after the Lens loss on Thursday. I always did like the look of this round of matches. It's such a shame that Lens fucked up otherwise this could've been a monstrous round! Sods law I had to lose the 10/10 pick but that's life, it was still a profitable round by about +10 units. A nice way to sign off for Ligue 2 in 2013, roll on the new year.

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