oldbigead Posted March 14, 2005 Share Posted March 14, 2005 As someone pointed out; some of the spreads i put up yesterday were already available. So i thought i'd have a go at some of Tuesday's games in advance to see if we can get a consensus on some of the spreads in advance. The predictions i'm putting up are obviously based on there being no new injuries with the teams involved or miraculous recoveries from anyoe one the injured list. Utah @ Cleveland Cavs by 8.5-9 Lakers @ Philli Philli by 4-4.5 Miami @ Knicks Miami by 4-4.5 Sonics @ Bulls pick even Minnesota @ Dallas dallas by 6.5 Magic @ Kings kings by 6 These are just my idea of what i think the spreads should be. I'd really appreciate everyonelse giving their opinions on the lines in advance; which they think are too high or too low? Don't be bothered by looking daft by being way off either (i'm not) and they're only opinions anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldbigead Posted March 14, 2005 Author Share Posted March 14, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday No takers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sani Posted March 14, 2005 Share Posted March 14, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday Still too early man, let's wait and see tomorrow's injury reports. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjbear Posted March 14, 2005 Share Posted March 14, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday These are spot on, easy to log on to donbest and find them out isn't it?? Cheers JJ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldbigead Posted March 14, 2005 Author Share Posted March 14, 2005 ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldbigead Posted March 14, 2005 Author Share Posted March 14, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday Never heard of Don Best. Though just looked at the site donbest.com and it is quite good. Cheers mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldbigead Posted March 14, 2005 Author Share Posted March 14, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday Actually looked at the site a bit more and i'm not so sure? Who are all theses tipsters who come up when you click on picks? Are they employed by the site? Guess they must be if they're charging for their picks. For supposed pro handicappers all these guys seem to make very wild claims...all this 5 star pick rubbish...91% ATS. I just don't believe this drivel. I do this for a living and their claims are just plain ridiculous. Apart from this though the rest of the info seems good...and you can't have too much access to information. Any other useful sites that you know of? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted March 14, 2005 Share Posted March 14, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday Olympic put their lines out over a day in advance too, jj. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldbigead Posted March 14, 2005 Author Share Posted March 14, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday Do any of you guys ever bet with any of the American firms? Or do you just stick to the UK bookies? If so habe you ever had any probs with any of em...and is it easy to deposit and withdraw. It always puts me off that it always seems to be a hassle to get your money back and i guess they're also less well regulated. I opened one account last year with betonsports.com they seemed fine but it just became a hassle, and when i called up the person on the other end of the line could barely speak English. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldbigead Posted March 14, 2005 Author Share Posted March 14, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday These are spot on, easy to log on to donbest and find them out isn't it?? Cheers JJ. Hey JJ looks like the don best site isn't so accurate after all. They've got the Bulls favourite over the Sonics. It's just not happening, that game is either a pick or Seattle fav. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjbear Posted March 14, 2005 Share Posted March 14, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday Yeah pinnacle put their lines up quite early too, bet365 put theirs up pretty much after the previous days games have all gone off, oldfriend dont take any notice of the tipsters, they will give one side of a game to one punter, and the next will get the other side. The point I was making is that it is no great feat, being able to tell evryone the next days lines, because they are avuialble on donbest, we would probaly be more impressed, if you handicapped the games yourself, and came up with line differences and they were the right side, once the game has finished. Because otherwise you are never going to have an opinion on any of the games. Cheers JJ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldbigead Posted March 15, 2005 Author Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday How far in advance do you want me to handicap the games? I can assure you i handicapped all of the games myself. It's not really all that difficult. If you follow the NBA and know anything about betting you should never really be more than 2 points out anyway. It's a shame that people are so quick to be sceptical. All i was doing in the first place was following up on my point yesterday that you should know your own handicaps before the lines are posted. And this is exactly what i did. I've only just found this site and liked it as i thought i'd found 4 or 5 other guys who knew what they were talking about and weren't too quick to shout everyonelse down. I hope that this is the case so that we can all share useful information, opinions and ideas. If you want i'll handicap Wednesday's games (barring major injuries) just to prove my point. Shall i bother? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday I don't think either of us are being skeptical, obh...Just no real need to put yours up here a day or two in advance. Wouldn't it be best for you just to comment on the day that a line is 3-4 points off the one you came up with, and so is worth a bet iyo?...Because (and this isn't a shot at you) the only games you've suggested you've had a bet on had nothing to do with your lines v. the real ones. As jj says, there's no real point of coming up with your own lines if they are going to always be within 1-2 points of the real one....ie. Unless oone of your lines is 4-5 points off, why would you bet on it? It's an age old argument about being pro/re-active to the lines that are set, and everyone has their own methods of 'capping games...all sports...so no need to get ahead of ourselves here at all ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldbigead Posted March 15, 2005 Author Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday Fair enough mate. I appreciate your opinion there as you've obviously thought about it rather than just trying to be skeptical or critical. You've obviously been listening as you do make a good point..all the games (or the vast majority at least) i bet on are not based on my handicapping...just based on missed information. I just thought it would be interesting for us to come up with a consensus on the line in advance, as it's a good test and does give a valuable guide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjbear Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday OBE, I know that it is easy to handicap games, what I am saying is that the lines you have posted are virtually the same as the screen, do you know what the screen is??? When I handicap games there are normally some discrepancies from the screen, and thus this is what I base my wagers on, your lines being exactly the same as the opening lines, doesn't give you any opinion on the games. I am in no way trying to shout down people, there are some of the best handicappers I have known here, alot of good info is spouted around here, and will do for as long as the people that freely give wish to. I just think that if you come up with the exact line that vegas give out, you will never have an opinion. Cheers JJ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldbigead Posted March 15, 2005 Author Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday I don't know what the screen is, but i presume its some kind of early Vegas line? You're missing the point in being skeptcal. These are what i thought the lines would be. If they are similar (and they should be) then i know i'm not too far wide of the mark. If they're wrong either i believe i've a good bet or i've missed something. Very rarely is there a big difference that can't easily be explained and as such i don't bet very often. But your wrong that i don't have an opinion as the lines are MY opinion based solely on what i know, not on anythingelse.. And whilst everyone believes they know a lot.. i really do believe that i have a very good knowledge of both odds making and basketball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sani Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday No offense guys, and the point you made does make sence oldbiged. But still, too much noise about nothing on this topic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday ok...enough discussion....pick time! :) Orlando @ Sactown under 210.5 Orlando: 0-9 under (-18.1!!) as a dog off a 10+ loss. (since 12/4/2004) Last game in Orlando was 114-111..but the teams shot a combined 53.3%, and the Kings hit 2 3's in the last 40 seconds to make it look worse. Also, Orlando were playing terrible D at the time. Over a 4 game span (inc that game) they allowed 107.2 ppg @ 50% shooting. Since then they have allowed just 97 ppg @ under 45% shooting. The Kings aren't exactly lighting it up themselves, av. just 95.4 ppg in their last 5. Orlando are 2-10 under as a dog of 4-6.5 this season, and 12-18 under away, due to their lack of scoring on the road...av. just 95.9 ppg. 210 is a lot of points. Also hoping for some line movement in the Chicago game...Will be all over the Bulls if they go off as fav. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldbigead Posted March 15, 2005 Author Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday So you mean that if the Bulls go off as fav, then you'll back the Sonics? I think Seattle has to be very slight favourite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldbigead Posted March 15, 2005 Author Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday Think Knicks +6.5 at evens with Ladbrokes is a very good bet. Just a bit wary of Miami as they're playing so well right now. But even money about a game where the line is generally 1 point lower has to be a decent bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldbigead Posted March 15, 2005 Author Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday Sani. Looks like Juwan Howard hurt his knee pretty badly last night. Don't know how serious it is yet, but if he's out for any length of time i think Houston is affected. It's not that he's a world beater, but he's fits in really well with the new system they've been playing. and behind him the rockets have very little at the four position. Thi scould be one of those injuries that you wouldn't think makes much difference but actually makes a lot of difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sani Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday Sani. Looks like Juwan Howard hurt his knee pretty badly last night. Don't know how serious it is yet' date=' but if he's out for any length of time i think Houston is affected. It's not that he's a world beater, but he's fits in really well with the new system they've been playing. and behind him the rockets have very little at the four position. Thi scould be one of those injuries that you wouldn't think makes much difference but actually makes a lot of difference.[/quote'] Yeah, that's a good point you made there, PF already was their weakest spot. This could or could not affect them, since i think Van Gundy is able to solve this, and maybe even improve the team. Let's wait and see. But short term this is bad, i agree. No picks from me today, not after my double/treble fiasco last night. I'll pick something tomorrow. I did check todays games and i really don't like them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday Was going to back Chicago if they had have moved into favs, but it looks like it's even going the other way. Only one bet for me today to then. sani...Another thing occured to me last night about this OT thing. Surely if the book doesn't offer a 'tie' option to bet on, they can't end the game @ OT. I'd definately be complaining about it. I'd also be getting another online book...Make it an Australian one. You're gunna need it when AFL starts next weekend ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjbear Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday I tryed clicking on the link to "sanisbookmaker" and it didn't work?? Sani any answers?? Cheers JJ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliensyndm Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday :lol I think it was a piss take ! He has a local bookie but there's no website and it doesn't do things over the phone. Was just a jokey-beans type link I think . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sani Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday Was going to back Chicago if they had have moved into favs, but it looks like it's even going the other way. Only one bet for me today to then. sani...Another thing occured to me last night about this OT thing. Surely if the book doesn't offer a 'tie' option to bet on, they can't end the game @ OT. I'd definately be complaining about it. I'd also be getting another online book...Make it an Australian one. You're gunna need it when AFL starts next weekend ;) Oh i'll definitely stay away from AFL, i told you i know nothing about it, man. And local bookies here do offer tie option, usually @15.0, but who's gonna bet on that, so i see it like '0' on rullet. House wins. Mate, i'm trying to forget about it, stop reminding me, lol. Good luck tonight, i'm enjoying my day off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldbigead Posted March 15, 2005 Author Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday Was going to back Chicago if they had have moved into favs, but it looks like it's even going the other way. Only one bet for me today to then. sani...Another thing occured to me last night about this OT thing. Surely if the book doesn't offer a 'tie' option to bet on, they can't end the game @ OT. I'd definately be complaining about it. I'd also be getting another online book...Make it an Australian one. You're gunna need it when AFL starts next weekend ;) I'm still not sure what your saying about the Chicago game? Are you saying that you would only back the Bulls if their price shortened? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sani Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday I tryed clicking on the link to "sanisbookmaker" and it didn't work?? Sani any answers?? Cheers JJ. You didn't really do that did you? It was a joke man, but it sure made me laugh now. Cheers, and good luck tonight, pal. P.S. the link was www.sanislocalbookie.com, not www.sanisbookmaker.com LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliensyndm Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday Did you pile on san antonio at -1 at 1.85 sani ? The line was like -12 as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: NBA picks, Tuesday I'm saying if the Bulls had have started the game as favourites, then yes, I would have bet on them. They aren't, so I'm not. The reason being home fav's have historically done well in Chicago's situation...but the Bulls aren't fav, and more than likely with good reason. No offense, obh, but you've got to get over this whole difference of philosophy thing. You've got your methods, I've got my reasons and we both do ok. Can't we just drop it and leave it at that? :\ btw, do you like the look of any games today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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