anaconda69 Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... How long do you envisage being here as if I follow anyone I need to know how long it will last? I do my own threads and ideas so I know it can be some work? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted November 3, 2013 Author Share Posted November 3, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... How long do you envisage being here as if I follow anyone I need to know how long it will last? I do my own threads and ideas so I know it can be some work? Hi. I intend to run this for the whole season. Don't be expecting every weekend to be like the last two though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ziener Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Great run this week congratulations. It seems as though the system most likely finds value in unders as you have only selected unders so far. Bit strange maybe the bookies undervaluate unders? Maybe it is league related and the bookies tend to have a general system for all leagues that does not rate leagues specifically. My question would be how do you determine if a league is more prone to unders or overs? Obviously you would study historic data but do you just collect the amount of overs and unders over the past years and weigh them? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted November 4, 2013 Author Share Posted November 4, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Results from Sunday: Serie A; Udinese v Inter; Under 2.5 @ 1.926 0-3 lose Serie A; Torino v Roma; Under 2.5 @ 1.901 1-1 win So a 90th minute goal for Inter let us down. Still, 7 out of 8 for the weekend is quite something. Not sure if the historic data ever showed quite such a good run as the last two weeks. It has however had similar length poor runs, so there are probably a few bad weekends in the pipeline to balance out the good ones a bit (but still not enough to undo all the good work hopefully). Summary: 39 bets, Total staked £390, Total Return £514.40, Profit £124.40 Yield 31.9% system results summary (You might spot that I made an error in the last summary table that I posted - £360 staked over 37 bets at £10 level stakes. My spreadsheet had somehow missed off the very first bet, Forest v Derby, so was showing incorrect totals. I've now corrected this) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted November 4, 2013 Author Share Posted November 4, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Great run this week congratulations. It seems as though the system most likely finds value in unders as you have only selected unders so far. Bit strange maybe the bookies undervaluate unders? Maybe it is league related and the bookies tend to have a general system for all leagues that does not rate leagues specifically. My question would be how do you determine if a league is more prone to unders or overs? Obviously you would study historic data but do you just collect the amount of overs and unders over the past years and weigh them? The system historically produces broadly similar numbers of overs and unders selections on the EPL and Championship. This season the stats have really been heavily leaning towards unders for some reason and I think general results have reflected this. I expect this to be a short-term trend and to see some overs selections before too long. Serie A, as you might expect, does not historically produce too many overs selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ghiaccio Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Very good run, sir....after a bad start, your now system works great...:) Keep up the good work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted November 4, 2013 Author Share Posted November 4, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Ziener, not sure I quite answered your question there but I think that basically the answer is "yes". I suppose the starting point for the "model" is to look at the relationship between bookies odds and under/over probability. It then uses a set of ratings to filter the matches to reveal where the value is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted November 4, 2013 Author Share Posted November 4, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Very good run, sir....after a bad start, your now system works great...:) Keep up the good work Thanks, although I was reasonably happy with the start. :D I guess it all depends on expectations..... Bearing that in mind I think it is too early to judge how well the system is performing this season. Give it another 100 bets or so? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ziener Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... I think you have answered my question quite well I think it sounds more complicated than it is but I am quite impressed and playing fully along with you so keep it up :clap I think the bookies work with a general system of odds that basicly valuates the probability upon some logical parameters stemming from recent performance and historical probabliity. I do not think they are really trend sensitive, as you discovered this trend in the EPl, CHP with your data analysis. I wonder if they would give a general odds penalty to notorious defensive/goal depraved leagues like the Italian league or if they take trends into consideration at all. I get where you coming from after finding this article: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2421763/Premier-League-averages-lowest-goals-game-ratio-time.html So you are most definitely correct on this trend it would be interesting to see if there are more leagues with low goal scoring trends as opposed to the average historical trend in the league. There is truly value to find I agree as the bookies tend to have a general approach. What leagues have you taking into consideration so far? Perhaps the Serie B or the Ligue 1 could be a candidate for further ventures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snedds30 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Just read through your post Aldebaran and very impressed so far, when will your next selections be and keep up the good work !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted November 5, 2013 Author Share Posted November 5, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... ...I think the bookies work with a general system of odds that basicly valuates the probability upon some logical parameters stemming from recent performance and historical probabliity. I do not think they are really trend sensitive, as you discovered this trend in the EPl, CHP with your data analysis. I wonder if they would give a general odds penalty to notorious defensive/goal depraved leagues like the Italian league or if they take trends into consideration at all.... Yes, this is pretty much my thinking. I do think that there are different models used though for different leagues. Serie A odds do seem to show the increased number of unders but there still seem to be plenty of matches that are overpriced. So you are most definitely correct on this trend it would be interesting to see if there are more leagues with low goal scoring trends as opposed to the average historical trend in the league. There is truly value to find I agree as the bookies tend to have a general approach. What leagues have you taking into consideration so far? Perhaps the Serie B or the Ligue 1 could be a candidate for further ventures. I have also looked at the top divisions in Spain, France and Germany as well as Leagues 1 and 2 in England. Applying the system does show some long-term value in all of these except, if I remember, the Bundesliga which was pretty much at break-even. However, there seems to be much more variability in performance between seasons and swings between losing and running streaks than in the three leagues I am running with. I am not too keen on the more variable results the other leagues seem to show. But, yes, I think you are correct and this angle probably has some merit in most leagues if you were happy with a different short-term risk profile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted November 5, 2013 Author Share Posted November 5, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Just read through your post Aldebaran and very impressed so far' date=' when will your next selections be and keep up the good work !![/quote'] Hi. Thanks. The next selections will be posted on Friday evening (if I can get online) once I know where the odds are sitting going in to the weekend. Otherwise it will be Saturday morning at the latest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Posting Saturday's matches a bit earlier today than stated. There will be some Sunday selections too. 9 Nov 2013 Premier League; Crystal Palace v Everton; under 2.5 @ 1.98 Championship; Barnsley v Doncaster; under 2.5 @ 2.02 Championship; Derby v Sheffield Wednesday; under 2.5 @ 2.12 Championship; Middlesbrough v Watford; under 2.5 @ 2.09 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted November 9, 2013 Author Share Posted November 9, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Results: 9 Nov 2013 Premier League; Crystal Palace v Everton; under 2.5 @ 1.98 0-0 win Championship; Barnsley v Doncaster; under 2.5 @ 2.02 0-0 win Championship; Derby v Sheffield Wednesday; under 2.5 @ 2.12 3-0 lose Championship; Middlesbrough v Watford; under 2.5 @ 2.09 2-2 lose On to Sundays selections: 10 Nov 2013 Serie A; Parma v Lazio; under 2.5 @ 1.87 Serie A; Fiorentina v Sampdoria; under 2.5 @ 2.14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Sunday's results: 10 Nov 2013 Serie A; Parma v Lazio; under 2.5 @ 1.87 1-1 win Serie A; Fiorentina v Sampdoria; under 2.5 @ 2.14 2-1 lose So a small loss over the weekend but no serious harm done. System performance to date: 45 Bets, £450 staked, £573.10 returned, profit £123.10, yield 27% Summary table (now just showing the last two weekends....table was starting to get unwieldy!) Will be back in 2 weeks after the international break....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Saturday's selections: 23 Nov 2013 Championship; Sheffield Wednesday v Huddersfield; under 2.5 @ 1.925 Championship; Ipswich v Leicester; under 2.5 @ 1.952 Championship; Leeds v Middlesbrough; under 2.5 @ 2.03 Championship; Millwall v Barnsley; under 2.5 @ 1.97 Championship; Nottm Forest v Burnley; under 2.5 @ 1.84 Premier League; Arsenal v Southampton; under 2.5 @ 2.02 Premier League; West Ham v Chelsea; under 2.5 @ 2.01 Serie A; Milan v Genoa; under 2.5 @ 1.925 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted November 24, 2013 Author Share Posted November 24, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Saturday's results: Championship; Sheffield Wednesday v Huddersfield; under 2.5 @ 1.925 1-2 lose Championship; Ipswich v Leicester; under 2.5 @ 1.952 1-2 lose Championship; Leeds v Middlesbrough; under 2.5 @ 2.03 2-1 lose Championship; Millwall v Barnsley; under 2.5 @ 1.97 1-0 win Championship; Nottm Forest v Burnley; under 2.5 @ 1.84 1-1 win Premier League; Arsenal v Southampton; under 2.5 @ 2.02 2-0 win Premier League; West Ham v Chelsea; under 2.5 @ 2.01 0-3 lose Serie A; Milan v Genoa; under 2.5 @ 1.925 1-1 win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted November 24, 2013 Author Share Posted November 24, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Two more for Sunday and then another two for Monday: 24 Nov 2013 Serie A; Livorno v Juventus; under 2.5 @ 2.06 Serie A: Bologna v Inter; under 2.5 @ 1.862 25 Nov 2013 Serie A; Roma v Cagliari; under 2.5 @ 2.00 Premier League; West Brom v Aston Villa; under 2.5 @ 1.855 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Results from Sunday and Monday and we turned a moderate profit over the weekend. But for a consolation goal for Sheffield Wednesday in the 93rd minute it would have looked a lot healthier! 24 Nov 2013 Serie A; Livorno v Juventus; under 2.5 @ 2.06 0-2 win Serie A: Bologna v Inter; under 2.5 @ 1.862 1-1 win 25 Nov 2013 Serie A; Roma v Cagliari; under 2.5 @ 2.00 0-0 win Premier League; West Brom v Aston Villa; under 2.5 @ 1.855 2-2 lose Totals: 57Bets, £570 staked, £709.87 returned, profit £139.87, yield 24.5% Summary Table Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ziener Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Thankyou for your efforts. Most people give up their system after a few weeks, but you keep going and with good results :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted November 27, 2013 Author Share Posted November 27, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Thankyou for your efforts. Most people give up their system after a few weeks' date=' but you keep going and with good results :clap[/quote'] Thanks Ziener. Before I started the thread I made the decision to commit to posting selections for the whole season. I've been running an earlier version of this and also a home wins system for a couple of years so I'm already in the habit of keeping my spreadsheet updated each week so its just a case of coming on here to post the selections. It's going OK so far but a long way to go yet for the season. By the way, this weekend is yet again looking like it is all unders. Perhaps I should rename the thread title at this rate.:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ziener Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Thanks Ziener. Before I started the thread I made the decision to commit to posting selections for the whole season. I've been running an earlier version of this and also a home wins system for a couple of years so I'm already in the habit of keeping my spreadsheet updated each week so its just a case of coming on here to post the selections. It's going OK so far but a long way to go yet for the season. By the way, this weekend is yet again looking like it is all unders. Perhaps I should rename the thread title at this rate.:D Well you are doing a grand job and it´s nice you keep giving great advice. It´s always risky to put yourself out there so I appreciate it alot. Maybe black monday will come sooner or later but it looks like this system can take some hits. I find it very impressive how you remain profitable over all these weekends without taking goal data into consideration. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Four for today and a couple more for Sunday and Monday: 30Nov 2013 Championship; Blackpool v Sheffield Wednesday; under 2.5 @ 1.847 Championship; Middlesbrough v Bolton; under 2.5 @ 1.99 Championship; Wigan v Derby; under 2.5 @ 1.971 Premier League; West Ham v Fulham; under 2.5 @ 1.877 1 Dec 2013 Premier League; Chelsea v Southampton; under 2.5 @ 2.03 2 Dec 2013 Serie A; Lazio v Napoli; under 2.5 @ 1.893 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Four for today and a couple more for Sunday and Monday: 30Nov 2013 Championship; Blackpool v Sheffield Wednesday; under 2.5 @ 1.847 Championship; Middlesbrough v Bolton; under 2.5 @ 1.99 Championship; Wigan v Derby; under 2.5 @ 1.971 Premier League; West Ham v Fulham; under 2.5 @ 1.877 1 Dec 2013 Premier League; Chelsea v Southampton; under 2.5 @ 2.03 2 Dec 2013 Serie A; Lazio v Napoli; under 2.5 @ 1.893 Apologies - correction. The Wigan v Derby game is tomorrow not today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... A weekend to forget! We could only manage 2 winners out of 6 which sees the overall yield slide down below 20%. However, yield in the region of 30% was unlikely to be sustainable and a run like the current one is to be completely expected at some point in the long-run. No panic. 30Nov 2013 Championship; Blackpool v Sheffield Wednesday; under 2.5 @ 1.847 win 2-0 Championship; Middlesbrough v Bolton; under 2.5 @ 1.99 win 1-1 Premier League; West Ham v Fulham; under 2.5 @ 1.877 lose 3-0 1 Dec 2013 Championship; Wigan v Derby; under 2.5 @ 1.971 lose 1-3 Premier League; Chelsea v Southampton; under 2.5 @ 2.03 lose 3-1 2 Dec 2013 Serie A; Lazio v Napoli; under 2.5 @ 1.893 lose 2-4 Totals: 63Bets, £630 staked, £748.24 returned, profit £118.24, yield 18.8% Summary Table Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Midweek fixtures and a four selections from tonight's Championship games 03 Dec 2013 Championship; Birmingham v Doncaster; under 2.5 @ 1.971 Championship; Burnley v Watford; under 2.5 @ 1.971 Championship; QPR v Bournemouth; under 2.5 @ 1.935 Championship; Reading v Charlton; under 2.5 @ 1.917 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ziener Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Cheers aldebaran another excellent selection. Washes away the bad taste of this weekend. :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Thanks Ziener, a bit of a happier day wasn't it?.... Tuesday's results: 03 Dec 2013 Championship; Birmingham v Doncaster; under 2.5 @ 1.971 1-1 win Championship; Burnley v Watford; under 2.5 @ 1.971 0-0 win Championship; QPR v Bournemouth; under 2.5 @ 1.935 3-0 lose Championship; Reading v Charlton; under 2.5 @ 1.917 1-0 win Totals: 67Bets, £670 staked, £806.83 returned, profit £136.83, yield 20.4% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Some more for Wednesday: 04 Dec 2013 Premier League; Southampton v Aston Villa; under 2.5 @ 1.86 Premier League; Sunderland v Chelsea; under 2.5 @ 2.02 Premier League; Fulham v Tottenham; under 2.5 @ 2.04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... So Wednesday was a bit of a shocker, the Premier League has been letting us down in recent weeks! 04 Dec 2013 Premier League; Southampton v Aston Villa; under 2.5 @ 1.86 2-3 lose Premier League; Sunderland v Chelsea; under 2.5 @ 2.02 3-4 lose Premier League; Fulham v Tottenham; under 2.5 @ 2.04 1-2 lose Totals: 70Bets, £700 staked, £806.83 returned, profit £106.83, yield 15.3% Summary Table Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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