Maidens

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Re: Maidens 7.40 Wolves Plenty of unknowns in here including the Irish raider Dolce N Karama who's been well supported. Never heard of this ones Sire 'The Carbon Unit' and he could be anything at all. The Prescott filly Wunderkind looks appealing on pedigree but all the stats point to her being a better 3yo and also better over shorter. Archibald Thorburn has the form in the book with a 1/2 length second over Cd last run but is priced accordingly. The Godolpfin Dubawi colt takes my eye and although drifting I'm going to take an e/w view on this one. Dubawi's do well on most surfaces, can go well fresh and the trips should be ideal. Wellesbourne .25pt e/w @12/1

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Re: Maidens Wellesbourne third, Atjebi isn't my fav jockey anyway and he went for a run up the inside but got badly squeezed back. The gap wasn't there really anyway. Added to notebook but will probably be short price next run. .5pt staked .85pt returned 197.57

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Re: Maidens 2.25 Haydock Tom Dascombe has a fine record here with his 2yo(20% for +£41) and his daughter of Teofilo ought to be suited by the race conditions on her debut. Teofilo's seem suited by this sort of trip as 2yo's and also the going. There's another Teofilo in the line up in the shape of Cascading but Hughie Morrsion is yet to have a 2yo winner here. The Godolphin Dubawi filly should go close but is way to short for me whilst Flippant should be in the mix if sh'e ok after her break and also Minnaloushe. Mark Johnston's fillt Testing has been well supported but I'm concerned about the trip for her. .5pt e/w Betty The Thief @ 14/1 3.00 Haydock Another Teofilo will be the selection here in William Haggas's Ehtifaal. He ran with great promise on debut at Newbury when keeping on over 7f, the 8f should suit. Obvious dangers include El Najmm out of Sea The Stars and the Godolphin trio. One Sire that also does well here in Authorized and he's represented by Richard Faheys Come on Sunshine who might outrun his odds, he was very buzzy and fresh on debut and may do better today. 1pt win Ehtifaal @ 3/1 .25pt e/w Come On Sunshine @ 66/1 2.10 Ripon Can't be having Jacobs Pillow here at 1/2. Oasis Dream dont do well here and he may not suit the course, he was beaten at odds on on debut at Sandown which is totally different track to this. 1pt LAY Jacobs Pillow @ 1.54 liability of .54pt

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Re: Maidens Two Dutch Arts won the maidens at Haydock yesterday taking his record there to 6-15 +£49. I got in five mins before the first and had a small e/w on Dutch S for Clive Cox on debut which won @16s but never backed the 2nd winner. Unfortunately I never had time to add to thread beforehand. 5 of those Durch Art winners have been over 6f and it may be worth making a note of this for next seasons maidens. They seem to do well on most flat and galloping tracks particularly on straight races.

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Re: Maidens mixed day, Started off well with the Lay losing. Betty The Thief and Ehtifaal ran similar races, both behind and making moderate late headway. Haggas won the first maiden when I backed against it yet lost on the one I backed, i had some joy with him as it was his I laid. That's the way it usually goes with me and him. 2.5pts down on win bets 1pt up on lay -1.5 pt

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Re: Maidens Just the one race of interest tomorrow 2.10 Curragh Kaminari of Ger Lyons is beautifully bred by Sea The Stars/Karmifira and made an eyecatching debut at Dundalk when given and introductory ride. Although not as big as her sire she looked well made and should be running on stoutly at the business end. Aiden O'Brien runs the well bred Oasis Dream filly Sparrow who bombed on debut but that looked greenness more than anything else, still she's a lot prove. Dermot Weld runs Tested and he has won the race the past two years so this daughter of Selkirk has to respected on debut. No prices yet but if Kaminari 3/1 or bigger I'll stake a pt on her.

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Re: Maidens 2.10 Curragh, Kaminari .5pt e/w @13/2 5.00 Epsom, Just had another look through this race and have decided to take on the Haggas fav with Dark Amber from Brendan Powells yard. Sahkee's enjoy undulating stiff tracks so Dark Amber should be suited to Epsom and the way he was staying on over 8f on debut suggests the 10f trip would be right up his street. The Godolphin and Johnston runners have to show significant improvement on what they've shown so far. Song And Dance Man should handle the conditions today too but with 120 days off he's worth taking on if not laying. .5pt win Dark Amber @ 7/2

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Re: Maidens Here's my current notebooked horses for anyone that's interested, once they win they are removed from this notebook and added to a another notebook where I assess their likely route/ability etc. Normally with notebooked I remove if they disappoint twice with no obvious excuse, nothing worse than following off cliffs. Marmoom, Country Drive, Kaminari, Castle Coumbe, Sherston, Pageant Belle, Miss Buckshot, Nibbling, Sequined, Zuhd, Art Obsession, Automated, Lacock, Stan Nineteen, Dutch Romance, Aomen Rock, Pipe Dream, Pendo, Nissaki Kasta, Ian's Memory, Montaly, Cape Caster, Freedom's Light, Arbaab, Mighty Missile, Mustadaam, Norse Star, Touch The Sky, Carthage, Boy In The Bar, Jolly Red Jeanz, Salmon Sushi, Ganges, Tall Ship, Cascading, Betty The Thief. Just because a horse is notebooked it doesn't mean that'll I'll back it next run. I'd have to be happy that the race conditions will be suitable and of course the odds are ok.

[chester12]

Re: Maidens 5.00 Powell in maiden races 3 wins from 105...lay for me

[chester12]

Re: Maidens also Powell 0/71..horse 2nd run on turf

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Re: Maidens

also Powell 0/71..horse 2nd run on turf

Set your own thread up mate instead of hijacking mine

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Re: Maidens no return on todays bets -1.5 pts Kaminari raced up with the speed but to be honest looked one paced over the trip, she really is small too! Thought Dark Amber was coming with a winning run down the outside but that run petered out, was right to take the jolly on though I dont think I'd of picked winner with a few attempts. 194.27

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Re: Maidens

5.00 Powell in maiden races 3 wins from 105...lay for me

P.Phelan 3-93 winners in maiden yet wins the race, any stat can be made to look what you want it to look like. The thing is how may Powell horses in maidens would of been 2nd fav in a 6 runner race? not many I'd wager. I could of said B.G Powell 3yo overall 16-173 for £48 profit level stake at SP, he might of had a 100/1 winner in that to bump the profit, who knows.

[chester12]

Re: Maidens I have no intention of hijacking your thread Egg.. i merely considered posting a stat which I felt was relevant to the outcome... Powell 2nd fav in maidens before today.. 0 wins from 8... if you want to take the odds of the stat into account you have to take the ratio of the actual to expected wins into account. so heres the Powell stats with a/e[TABLE=class: tfsm, width: 608]

[TR] [TD=class: b w25]Total Runs[/TD] [TD=class: r w15, align: right]206[/TD] [TD=class: w10] [/TD] [TD=class: w10] [/TD] [TD=class: b w20][/TD] [TD=class: r w10, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: r w10, align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: b]Total Wins[/TD] [TD=class: r, align: right]3[/TD] [TD=class: r, align: right](1.5%)[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: b][/TD] [TD=class: r, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: r, align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: b]expected wins 11.7 a/e .26 this means he scored 26% of his expected wins as indicated by the odds of the runners.[/TD] [TD=class: r, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: r, align: right][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[chester12]

Re: Maidens all i was doing was stating the horse was a lay foe me and and giving 2 reasons why... I think your thread is excellent by the way..

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Re: Maidens ok mate thats fine but at least give a reasoned argument rather than pull a stat out of the air. The race was weak and although Powell had a bad record in maidens I was aware of that, my reasoning was that the fav was dodgy and nothing else in the race looked likely given the form of them bar Powells. Maybe i should of just laid the fav in hindsight!

[chester12]

Re: Maidens surely the stat itself is enough.....obviously i cant post here a strong stat without something else to support it? it was my first post on this forum and I spend a lot of time studying maiden races..I would like to learn from you and others on here.

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Re: Maidens sorry Chester i didn't see your post above that. Yeah I knew his A/E was poor but in the context of the race and the odds in the race I thought it worth the play and it's unlikely he'll have a better chance in a maiden for a while given his class of horses against those from the more dominant yards. I'm all for a bit debate on maidens myself as there's lots of errors made by the bookies in this sphere and load and loads of false favs. We all overlook things or get fixated on one or two angles so it would be good to hear others methods or thinking.

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Re: Maidens Quiet day today with only one race 2.30 Bath looks on paper to revolve round 4 of these. Dullingham- Green both starts, not sure step up in trip is sure to suit. Notarised- trip should suit given pedigree, poor run latest on soft ground Template- again trip not a given on pedigree, needs to improve. Tioga Pass- Decent debut on a/w, pedigree suggests trip should suit. looking on Betfair, Dullingham and Template are heading the betting, I think I'll more likely be looking to Notarised and Tioga Pass as those two seems to have the stronger claims on breeding. I'll be back nearer the race time with bets I've placed.

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Re: Maidens 1pt win Notarised @ 4/1 .5pt win Tioga Bay @ 9/2 .25pt reverse forecast 2pts total

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Re: Maidens Notarised makes all to win under a very good ride from Adam Kirby @9/2 2pts staked 5.5pts returned +3.5 pts 197.77

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Re: Maidens Only one race tomorrow for the thread. 7.50 Kempton 1. Leo Luna- 2 maiden runs with Stoute last year before going hurdling with new connections, proved to be a decent sort. Galileo prodgeny don't have a great record here though. 4.Aalim- Nayef gelding- sire does ok here, SDS choice. Yard does well here with 28% S/R. 5.Diamond Mine- Improved last run when 3rd over 12f here. Yard has good S/R here with 3yo. 6. Galeb Warrior- Duke Of Marmalade gelding, offspring normally need the run 7.Murasil. Elusive Quality gelding- sire has ok record here, looks second string but 'white caps' win their share. 10. Hope's Wishes- Kayf Tara filly- Sires progeny often need the run fto. should be suited by middle distances, market check needed. Yard decent S/R. 12. Near Time- stable mate of Hope's Wishes, form choice, ran well in hood last run over 12f here, RPR 83, not sure if slight drop in trip is beneficial but should be on premises. 13. Quality Alliance- 3rd on debut over 12f here, should progress but it looked a weak race. Yard good S/R here. will check market moves tomorrow in regards to the Godolphin pair and the Balding pair.

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Re: Maidens .5pt e/w Near Time @13/2

[bully3061]

Re: Maidens Agree cracking thread. Not easy to do the study plus all the write ups . Didn't want to influence you at all on the Kempton maiden but i put one up on the selection thread Murasil to place. Am only mentioning this as the stats were quite interesting for the trainer 1st time out compared to their other runner which had a poor record 1st time out 5% i think would need to check. Any way interesting Murasil was the so called 2nd string yet the stats pointed towards a better run. Be interesting to see how they both progrees in the future. Anyway ive rambled on but just to say i'm reading and finding your thread a good read. :ok

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Re: Maidens I was doubtful about Murasil's stamina and thought he might just get outstayed and was hoping Near Time would be the one. Unfortunately it was Cumani's that did that. Good run from Murasil though and I think 10f would be ideal, showed smart turn of foot to take it up. Near Time travelled like the winner but just got caught flat footed when the pace increased before staying on well. I think I'll include Near Time in my handicap notebook now as she'd be interesting if stepped back up in trip. Mrs Micawber improved dramatically on her debut run and might find a weak maiden. 1pt staked 1.15 returned +.15pt 197.92

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Re: Maidens loads of maidens tomorrow. Dunno which ones I'll study as there's some big fields. One at Newcastle looks less time consuming but I'm off work tomorrow so might get a few done.

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Re: Maidens few bets today but wouldn't say there's any really strong fancies. One notebooked runner in Aomen Rock. 2.10 Newcastle Michael Bell has the fav in Raven Ridge but he looks plenty short enough although he did run well enough in a C3 maiden at Donny fto. His sire High Chapparal does ok with older horses at the track and has had 2 placed runners from 3 with 2yo here. I'll take him on with the Godolphin Shamardal colt, Shamardals have an ok record fto and Bin Suroor has a 23% S/R with 2yo here(3/13 +£7). Not much else stands out in the field with the Botti runner blinkered on debut and Brittain's needing to step up on his debut. Johnston's may improve dramatically for its debut and change of going but will need to. .5pt win Think Ahead @3/1 2.40 Newcastle Upholland should be more suited to todays track and going than he was at Hamilton 9 days ago when I put a bet up against him. Todays race lacks depth and really it should revolve around Botti's the Godolphin runner and Upholland. Whilst a case can be made for the two newcomers I'll side with Faheys today at the odds. .5pt win Upholland @ 11/4 .25pt e/w double on the 2 of them. 1.45 Salisbury Heavy ground at Salisbury could be difficult for punting in these biggish fields of mainly unraced maidens. Belrog is very highly though of by Ralph Beckett(9% 2yo @C) and his sire New approach gets winners on soft ground and has a fine S/R overall. John Gosdens(20% S/R 2yo @C) Pivotal colt Orions Bow should be suited to these conditions also. The Hannon/Hughes combo have the fav and is entitled to be so after a decent debut 3rd on soft ground but is priced short enough. Im going to take a small stake e/w view on Belrog. .25pt e/w Belrog @ 8/1 3.35 Nottingham I was on Adore when she was second at Beverley but she did get well beaten and this race looks tougher. IF she goes under 2/1 I will probably lay her. Sweeping Up is nicely bred and shaped well when runner up on debut behind Surcingle with another of todays runners Chortle behind. Regardez also filled the runner up spot last time out when 2nd over 7f and should be suited by the mile today. Plenty of newcomers who could be good on paper here too notably the C.Hills and Gosden fillies. I'm going to give Chortle and chance to reverse running with Sweeping Up, the reason is lots of Godolphin runners have been too green to do themselves justice this year and have improved big style for the experience and Chortle was being pushed along from an early stage and was pretty green throughout, Barzalona brought her very wide up the home straight well away from all the action where she stayed on ok without being knocked about. .25pt e/w Chortle @ 8/1 4.10 Nottingham Vermont I noted last run that may require the drop from 10f to 8f and today he gets that, he is however short in the betting again. Aomen Rock is from the notebook list but will have to improve again to play a hand here, She was beaten by Appease who was just beaten yesterday off 74 on his handicap bow, that should put her on a round 70 and she may find one or two better than 70 in here. Musaddas is the one I like here, another Godolphin green one on debut who pulled very hard over 10f and didn't seem to handle track either. The drop in trip and faster pace should suit better and the 11/4 look fair enough. .5pt win Musaddas @ 11/4 .10 pt Lucky 15 on Musaddas, Think Ahead, Upholland and Chortle. 4.5 pts staked. Might have one later at Kempton tonight

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Re: Maidens poor day Think Ahead ran ok but was a bit green in 3rd place, had Upholland for the e/w thieving double but he stumbled 2 out then the jockey kept repeatedly switching him for no real reason and he finished 4th, still not progressing though. Belrog travelled as well as anything into the race but got nailed for 3rd on line after not been given hard time, interesting horse to follow. Chortle came in for late support but still looked green, jury out! Musaddas did far too much upfront and typically got mugged on line, surprising he got as close to winning given his freshness. -4.5pts 193.42 was going to put up the Hannon/Hannigan runner up in 6.10 Kempton but he's shortened from 9/1 into 9/2 so I'll leave it.

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Re: Maidens 3.30 Southwell Black Vale has ran twice here before finishing 3rd and 2nd and his stable does well here (35% win and 70% place). Simply Black is the highest rated in here @70 and her stable does fine here, Kheleyf's do well here too. Another Kheyelf is in here in the shape of Kheleyf Diamond who's just had the one run over here when she didn't shape badly at Ponte after being trapped wide and hampered a touch, previously trained by Jessica Harrington she ran ok on debut when 11L behind Stubbs. 1pt win Black Vale @ 5/1 .25pt e/w Kheleyf Diamond @33/1 6.40 Wolves Marco Botti has the odds on fav here and it's entitled to be fav after a promising debut 2nd on turf. The rest of the field look weak except Baker Man, made a promising debut over 6f before leading for along way over 7f lto before fading late on. At 3/1 he appeals against the fav. 1pt win Baker Man @ 3/1 3.10 Warwick Varians is a very short price on debut and might well skate in but makes no appeal to me at those odds. Going to put up and e/w on Great Wave of Simcock's with Buick in saddle(24% riding 2yo for stable) who made and encouraging debut over this 7f trip at Newmarket. looking at her pedigree it's likely she'll be a middle distance type next season so may just find this a touch sharp but at 16's worth a nibble. .25pt e/w Great Wave @ 16/1 3.40 Warwick Going for Buick again in this one riding for J.Noseda on Heavenly who gain made her debut at Newmarket. She travelled well that day just behind far side leaders but just faded late on and was eased up considerably. The Godolphin runner is attracting support but I've had my fingers burny on a good few of theirs lately, it was once the case that their runners were primed to run well on debut but this season their runners have invariably need the experience badly, maybe it's a change in their thinking I dunno. The fav is Artistic Charm from Simcock's but I'm worried that this track won't suit, She's by Dutch Art who had two winners last week over shorter trips at Haydock and the stats point to them beuing more at home on flat galloping tracks. May even lay her if she goes much shorter. .5pt e/w Heavenly @ 15/2

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Re: Maidens couldnt of got things much more wrong so far today. Left notebook horse Miss Buckshot alone because I wanted to see her on a/w and she wins @16/1, the one i selected finished 3rd backed into 10's. Heavenly was also well backed into 5's but went out very quickly and looked like something was amiss. Black Vale ran a stinker and will be avoided as he hasn't gone on, nice touch landed in that race from B.Smart stable. One to go to stop the rot