NFL week three picks

[danj2202]

Again back with one i want to jump on early 7 pts Miami dolphins (-1) to beat atlanta 10/11 william hill This line probably gets to 3 with a dinged up falcons team that will have a below par roddy white and no steven jackson on the offense which granted still leaves tony gonzalez and julio jones but should be easier to cover and jacquizz rodgers and jason snelling are a massive downgrade on the ground attack. Defensively they have lost two starters including weatherspoon the influental linebacker and biermann the defensive end which will affect a substandard pass rush and the team is already wafer thin in the secondary. Miami comes in undefeated and are not without their own issues on offense but they are more of the consistency side than health and should hopefully be good enough to take advantage of the walking wounded. Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk 2

[mcege]

Re: NFL week three picks I'll have 5 o/u&spread bets from week 3 and I took all early, so I'm posting them early, as well. Limits are already ok to take and post. One of them had already became a public bet, I can't afford to lose more value with him. The others were so far steady lines, only got half of point advantage with couple of them, but I don't expect any dramatic movement, from now on, at least not towards to bad direction. If you will to follow all of them, you can take the one already became public bet and wait to catch better line, or odds with others. But, as I told, I don't expect too much to change until game day. (I might speculate public to back Vikings more, but I already caught good odds with the line, which I fancy anyway.) Patriots vs. Buccaneers Although T.Brady is expected to have couple more reliable hands back from injury, I can’t imagine that disastrous Pats’ offense to dramatically improve in one week. I wrote my thoughts about their offensive lack of quality and throughout the week, there hadn’t been so much things to change those thoughts. D.Amendola will miss this game as well, both A.Dobson and K.Thompkins played terrible against Jets. So, T.Brady has only one reliable wide receiver, J.Edelman. Bucs’ secondary is definitely not the best defensive unit to bounce back. Gronk is expected to return, but I seriously doubt him to play in most of the snaps, S.Ridley had a terrible game last week, he fumbled and benched in first week. He’ll have monster numbers occassionally during season, but Bucs defensive front seven kept both Jets and Saints at 90- total rushing yards. All in all, I expect another offensively disharmonious game by Patriots. J.Freeman is terrible. Not getting a contract extension most definitely effects him and it’s also kind of obvious, he doesn’t have vote of confidence of coaching staff. He attempted only 26.5 passes per game and completed E of them. To have a monstrous RB like D.Martin is definitely something for a team to focus on rushing, but J.Freeman is better than these. Pats’ defense is not a good match up definitely, its front seven is healthy and solid. I expect Freeman to get pressurized during all game, but Bucs’ rushing numbers will be lower than they were against pedestrian Saints’ rush defense. TE production is the weak spot of Pats’ defense, but Bucs has almost zero TE production. I expect both defenses to dominate the game, as they have simply quality to do that and both opposing offense teams have tons of problems. Under 43.5 3/10 @2 (pinnacle) Saints vs. Cardinals Saints started 2-0, but it doesn’t change they’ve been far from being impressive throughout those games. Against Bucs, they barely won, despite J.Freeman completed only 9 of his 22 pass attempts and Bucs had double digit number of penalties. They did a good job by holding Bucs to only 14 points, but that was a game, they should’ve easily dominated. D.Brees started slow to new season, he completed d of his passing attempts and recorded 3TD-3INT. He got sacked for 6 times in first 2 games, his O-Line is not effective in both pass protecting and run blocking. RB’s only rushed 3.122 yards per carry...D.Brees is still a magical player and he’ll most probably increase his passing accuracy as the season goes on, but without a solid rushing game, I doubt they can blow the games out easily, especially against such an underrated Cardinals’ defense. All L.Fitzgerald, A.Roberts and R.Mendenhall will start, even though they will be missing most of training sessions, during this week. Cardinals started better then last season, as expected. They have worse W-L record, by they are more impressive on the field. C.Palmer made a solid start, he completes almost a of his attempts, his O-Line is stepped up against Lions, after a terrible debut game. Despite not having L.Fitzgerald most of the game, he engineered a W, in home opener. I like Cardinals’ defense a lot, their front seven is really versatile and fairly deep, whereas as the rookie T.Mathieu made a good start, their secondary is also pretty good, the stats will improve week by week. Saints has too many injury worries, despite some early injuries for defensive starters, they’ll miss two more defensive starters NT B.Bunkley and CB P.Robinson. Moreover, there are some minor concerns. Cardinals also doesn’t have a clean bill of health, but they’ll not miss any starters, except long term suspended D.Washington. Considering first two games of each teams, I don’t think there is too much seperating those teams, as Saints’ missings are also added into. Therefore, despite it’d been a public play already, I would love to take Cards’ with a TD. Cardinals(+7.5) 3/10 @ 1.91 (paddy power, bwin, skybet, betfred) Redskins vs. Lions There must be something I don’t understand. Even though both had included a long amount of garbage time, 112 points had been scored in Skins’ first two games, whereas Lions is already one of the most overish teams around, as they depend heavily to passing game and they have solid goal line rushers. The status of R.Bush is uncertain, but even if he doesn’t play, this match up deserves a bigger total points line. Both rushing and passing game of Skins improved against Packers, it was impossible to repeat the terrible outing in season opener anyway, but offensive team fulfilled some of the expectations. RGIII had another questionable performance, but Lions’ defense is a good fit for him to play like the RGIII everyone saw, last season. With or without R.Bush, M.Stafford will continue to pass and I seriously wonder how can Skins’ terrible secondary will limit his production. Also both L.Fletcher and B.Cofield had awful starts and despite having a good material on paper, Skins can’t defend against rush as well. A mediocre back up such as J.Starks had his career game against Skins and I don’t want to remember the first week game against Eagles. They conceded 71 points in first two games and I seriously doubt this to improve dramatically in just one week, against an offensively super talented Lions team. RGIII will eventually get better and even he continues to play sub par, his offensive peers are talented enough to score 20+ at home pitch, as long as they limit unforced errors, I believe Skins is a 25+ points team at home, with an “ok” RGIII. If R.Bush plays, Stafford will have full of talented and explosive receivers around him, if he doesn’t play, Stafford might depend even more to passing game. I have a feeling, Bush’s situation will eventually end up being win-win in any possible cases. I expect a scoring bonanza. Over 49 3/10 @ 1.943 (pinnacle) Vikings vs. Browns Vikings might seem to have impressive offensive stats in starting two games. But, the numbers are fluke, for their case. I explained how I saw their offense against Lions, last week and against Bears, things didn’t change too much. C.Ponder continued to suck, A.Peterson produced an “ok” game once again, he simply misses his FB J.Felton and he’ll continue missing him, this week as well. They scored from a kick return and fumble recovery, also Vikings had a very lucky interception in the end zone. Those three defensive plays kept them in the game. Browns has a perfect defensive unit, solid pass rushers, solid options against rush and an over average secondary, in which one of the best corner backs included. They allowed 300- total yards against much better QB’s then C.Ponder and 60- rushing yards per game. Q.Groves is expected to miss the game against Vikings, but this may result rookie B.Mingo to play for more snaps, after a very impressive pro football debut. Third string QB B.Hoyer will start for Browns and this’ll be his second pro football start. This might not seem to be good news, but B.Weeden had his own problems throughout the first two games, so it’s hard to determine Hoyer’s effect on scoreboard. That may result T.Richardson to have more carries, rather than his low numbers in first two games and that will do only good to Browns. Best wide receiver of team, J.Gordon returns from suspension, so Browns will arguably have the best offensive unit of this season on pitch, against Vikings’ defense, who allowed 30+ points, 410+ total yards and sacked opposing QB’s only for 1 time, in first two games. Their defensive stats were expected to drop, due to personnel transaction and sub par performances of some starters. They definitely couldn’t surprise, so far. Vikings is in home opener, but they have too many problems to be favorited with a TD, Browns is simply not the team to trust at all, but they have one of the best defensive units of the league, which should be enough to prevent a blow out. I feel Browns have a fairly big edge at the defensive side of the game, so I believe they can keep this close, at least. A definitely better Vikings team covered this line 5 of 8 home games, last season, with their current problems, it seems logical to rate current team to cover 3 of those 8 games. Browns team covered this line 3 of 8 road games, last season. I definitely see them as an improving side and I should rate current Browns team to cover 4-5 of those 8 games. Browns(+6) 3/10 @ 2 (pinnacle) Jets vs. Bills If Bucs could’ve kept the composure and limit the stupid penalties, Jets’ scoring average per game would’ve been 13- points. G.Smith has too many issues to get better, despite he has a solid O-Line. He has problems with accuracy, he has problems with decision making, sometimes he's late at escaping the pocket, sometimes he escapes quick, and attempt a pass with a shaky footwork, although he has an open receiver and not an immense pocket pressure. But, Jets' offensive incapability is definitely not on Smith's shoulders, he has really few number of reliable receivers. He'll continue missing J.Kerley, that means he'll have to go to disappointing WR's S.Hill, C.Gates and a solid, but limited because of minor injuries, S.Holmes. Jets doesn't have a convincing rushing game, neither. Bills is definitely not world beaters, especially on the road. But, in overall, Bills is better team then Jets, for me. Despite missing two solid defensive backs, J.Byrd and S.Gilmore, I rate both defenses to be fairly even. If Bills didn't miss those names at secondary, I would've definitely rated them having a better overall defensive unit. Bills also has a rookie QB with some mental areas to improve, but he, E.J. Manuel definitely had a better start then G.Smith. He incomparably has too many reliable play makers around him, then compatriot. I believe Bills has much better quality in some of units and I don't see any unit, which Jets has the better of them. I would've set Bills favorite with 1, or 2 points. It might sound crazy to favor Bills, on the road, but this is definitely more related to Jets' current and potential abilities. Bills(+2.5) 3/10 @ 1.91 (ladbrokes, coral, bet365, paddy, betfred, stan james...)