nathanrussell Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Hi All, I have developed my own football prediction strategy that I use and then convert this to odds to find teams to back that I feel have been priced wrongly by the bookmakers. I have tested this on paper over the past few weeks and I currently have a 17% ROI, which I'm very happy with. Basically, I thought I'd share my picks with you guys and I hope I can make people some money. There will be a 1000 point starting bank with the staking plan being one of level stakes, 10 points on each tip; I am still currently testing this strategy on paper. My picks for tomorrow (19/07/13) are: Vaasa PS - 2.5 at William Hill - 18:00 GMT Bray - 2.3 at Bet Victor - 19:45 GMT Shelbourne - 3.4 at Paddy Power - 20:00 GMT As well as posting tips, when I can find them, on here and I will also be posting them on my new blog > Thanks, Nathan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks Hi, Nathan; glad you decided to start posting on the forum; good luck with your system, hope you will maintain good strike rate! :ok However, I have removed link to your blog; if you would like to promote it, please contact forum owner, Paul Ross, via mail: team [at] punterslounge [dot] com, and ask for approval to post your link (if approved, you can have it as signature). Requirements are not heavy, I'm sure you can meet them! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nathanrussell Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks 19/07/2013 Results: Vaasa PS - Won 4-1 @ 2.5 (+15.00) Bray - Lost 3-1 @ 2.3 (-10.00) Shelbourne - Won 2-1 @ 3.4 (+24.00) Overall Staked: 30:00 Today's Profit: +29.00 Overall Profit: +29.00 Starting Bank: 1000.00 Current Bank: 1029.00 Current ROI: 96.66% Current Strike rate: 66.66% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nathanrussell Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks I'll post the tips for tomorrow in a separate post for clarity: 20/07/13 Tips: Rovaniemi – 5 at William Hill - 13:05 GMT Varnamo – 2.55 at Bet Victor - 15:00 GMT Nautico – 10.5 at Bet Victor - 22:30 GMT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nathanrussell Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks 20/07/2013 Results: Rovaniemi - Drew 0-0 @ 5 (-10.00) Varnamo - Won 1-0 @ 2.55 (+15.50) Nautico - Lost 2-0 @ 10.5 (-10.00) Overall Staked: 60.00 Today's Profit/Loss: -4.50 Overall Profit: +24.50 Starting Bank: 1000.00 Current Bank: 1024.50 Current ROI: 40.84% Current Strike rate: 50.00% There are no tips for tomorrow (21/07/2013). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nathanrussell Posted July 21, 2013 Author Share Posted July 21, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks 22/07/2013 Tips: Landskrona - 1.95 at Bet Victor (18:00 GMT) AIK Stockholm - 3.1 at Bet365 (18:00 GMT) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nathanrussell Posted July 22, 2013 Author Share Posted July 22, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks 22/07/2013 Results: Landskroka - Won 5-0 at 1.95 AIK Stockholm - Won 3-2 at 3.1 Overall Staked: 80.00 Today's Profit/Loss: +30.50 Overall Profit: +55.00 Starting Bank: 1000.00 Current Bank: 1055.00 Current ROI: 68.75% Current Strike rate: 62.50% There will be no tips for tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nathanrussell Posted July 23, 2013 Author Share Posted July 23, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks 24/07/2013 Tips: Internacional - 3 with Bet Victor - 01:00 GMT (Thursday) Halmstad - 4.8 at Bet Victor - 17:30 GMT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecurlyone1 Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks Good luck with this mate ive seen Halmsted a lot bigger with pinnacle , may be worth shopping around Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nathanrussell Posted July 25, 2013 Author Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks 24/07/2013 Results: Halmstad - Lost 1-0 at 4.8 Internacional - Won 1-0 at 3 Overall Staked: 100.00 Today's Profit/Loss: +10.00 Overall Profit: +65.00 Starting Bank: 1000.00 Current Bank: 1065.00 Current ROI: 65.00% Current Strike rate: 60.00% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nathanrussell Posted July 25, 2013 Author Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks 26/07/2013 Tips: Bohemians - 3.3 at Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nathanrussell Posted July 27, 2013 Author Share Posted July 27, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks 26/07/2013 Results: Bohemians - Drew 1-1 at 3.3 Overall Staked: 110.00 Today's Profit/Loss: -10.00 Overall Profit: +55.00 Starting Bank: 1000.00 Current Bank: 1055.00 Current ROI: 50.00% Current Strike rate: 54.55% 27/07/2013 Tips: Jaro - 2.25 with Bet365 Degerfors - 1.57 with Bet365 Landskrona - 2.75 with Bet Victor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nathanrussell Posted July 27, 2013 Author Share Posted July 27, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks Regarding the last post, as I can't edit it, I thought Landskrona were playing today but they played last night so it'll be just the two tips for today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orhane Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks Good luck with this. I would like to ask on what your system relies on: Is it about odds or statistical background? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nathanrussell Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks Good luck with this. I would like to ask on what your system relies on: Is it about odds or statistical background? Thanks a lot. It relies on nothing more than finding bets that I feel have been priced wrongly by the bookmakers and getting some value that way. 27/07/2013 Results: Jaro won 2-1 at 2.25 Degerfors won 4-2 at 1.57 Overall Staked: 130.00 Today's Profit/Loss: +18.20 Overall Profit: +73.20 Starting Bank: 1000.00 Current Bank: 1073.20 Current ROI: 56.30% Current Strike rate: 61.54% 28/07/2013 Tips: Vitoria - 5.5 with Bet365 Gefle - 4.8 with Bet365 Fredrikstad vs Follo (Draw) - 5.2 with Bet Victor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nathanrussell Posted July 29, 2013 Author Share Posted July 29, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks 28/07/2013 Results: Vitoria drew 1-1 at 5.5 Gefle won 2-0 at 4.8 Follo won 1-0 (tipped draw) at 5.2 Overall Staked: 160.00 Today's Profit/Loss: +18.00 Overall Profit: +91.20 Starting Bank: 1000.00 Current Bank: 1091.20 Current ROI: 57.00% Current Strike rate: 56.25% 29/07/2013 Tips: Varnamo - 5 at Bet Victor Angelholms - 2.7 at Bet365 Orgryte - 3.4 at Bet Victor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecurlyone1 Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks Good results again today pity about a 1st min red card in the Orgryte game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nathanrussell Posted July 29, 2013 Author Share Posted July 29, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks Good results again today pity about a 1st min red card in the Orgryte game Thanks a lot, yeah I'm pretty disappointed that got in the way of a potential clean sweep. 29/07/2013 Results: Varnamo won 2-1 at 5 Angelholms won 6-1 at 2.7 Orgryte lost 3-0 at 3.4 Overall Staked: 190.00 Today's Profit/Loss: +47.00 Overall Profit: +138.20 Starting Bank: 1000.00 Current Bank: 1138.20 Current ROI: 72.74% Current Strike rate: 57.89% 30/07/2013 Tips: Icasa - 13 with Bet Victor Atletico GO - 4.33 with Bet365 Chapecoense - 2.7 with Bet Victor 31/07/2013 Tips: Daegu FC - 4.33 with Bet365 Daejeon - 4.75 with Bet365 Gyeongnam - 3.6 with William Hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anon Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks Looks like the Icasa game is scheduled to played on the 31st, not the 30th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Egbert Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 It's on the 31st GMT but it takes place on the 30th local time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks Great performance so far! :clap Looks like Zbrochu is getting some fierce competition here! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TZOGAS Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks great job.....great job....i hope you will continue for all the winter to give us your selections...:notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nathanrussell Posted July 31, 2013 Author Share Posted July 31, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks Thanks for all the feedback and everything guys, after tipping a team that hadn't won in over three months to do so I was expecting a rough patch but I'll battle through. Still not a bad ROI. 30/07/2013 and 31/07/2013 Results: Icasa lost 4-1 at 13 Atletico GO lost 3-1 at 4.33 Chapecoense lost 1-0 at 2.7 Daegu FC lost 1-0 at 4.33 Daejeon lost 1-0 at 4.75 Gyeongnam lost 3-1 at 3.6 Overall Staked: 250.00 Today's Profit/Loss: -60.00 Overall Profit: +78.20 Starting Bank: 1000.00 Current Bank: 1078.20 Current ROI: 31.28% Current Strike rate: 44.00% 01/07/2013 Tips: Vitoria at 6.25 with Bet Victor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecurlyone1 Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks Vitoria at 6.25 with Bet Victor 8.0 with betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nathanrussell Posted August 2, 2013 Author Share Posted August 2, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks 01/08/2013 Results: Vitoria lost 2-0 at 6.25 Overall Staked: 260.00 Today's Profit/Loss: -10.00 Overall Profit: +68.20 Starting Bank: 1000.00 Current Bank: 1068.20 Current ROI: 26.23% Current Strike rate: 42.30% 02/08/2013 Tips: Varnamo at 4.4 with BetVictor Derry City at 3.1 with BetVictor Dundalk at 3.6 with BetVictor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RommiRommi Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks today will be: Varnamo lost Derry City lost Dundalk lost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks today will be: Varnamo lost Derry City lost Dundalk lost Very constructive (second) post, RommiRommi :\...... I suggest it should be left for the thread author to post the results.... good or bad. Keep up the good work, Nathan :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Egbert Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 today will be: Varnamo lost Derry City lost Dundalk won All fixed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nathanrussell Posted August 2, 2013 Author Share Posted August 2, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks 02/08/2013 Results: Varnamo lost 5-0 at 4.4 Derry City lost 2-1 at 3.1 Dundalk won 3-1 at 3.6 Overall Staked: 290.00 Today's Profit/Loss: +6.00 Overall Profit: +74.20 Starting Bank: 1000.00 Current Bank: 1074.20 Current ROI: 25.59% Current Strike rate: 41.38% 03/08/2013 Tips: Daegu - 4.5 at William Hill Chunnam - 4.33 at Bet365 Jonkopings - 2.5 at Bet365 Thanks for all the feedback thus far :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skycity Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Re: Nathan's Value Picks Good work mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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