Finding Value In Handicaps

[Aidymac]

Handicaps have been doing my nut in for quite some time now, so am going to do a log here. Going to read the form, do my own tissues, put up what I think the prices should be (everyone has their own opinion), compare with the board prices, and try to get what I feel is a tasty price. Not backing with serious money, I'll leave that for the Group racing. Bet 1 Stratford 7:10 > My Tissue Lough Derg Way - 9/4 Priceless Art - 11/2 Whispering Jack - 7/1 Highway Code - 8/1 Lukeys Luck - 8/1 Nobunaga - 8/1 Manger Hanagement - 12/1 Amaury De Lusignan - 14/1 Creekside - 16/1 Giant O'Murchu - 16/1 Fingeronthepulse - 20/1 Captain Sully - 50/1 Manger Hanagement looks a big price going by my own tissue. The Barry Brennan trained 8 year old gelding was impressive back in April at Taunton when winning a Class 4 Handicap chase, beating the Tizzard horse Health Is Wealth, who was placed here at Stratford at 40/1 a couple of weeks ago. He is now only 2 pounds higher than that success at Taunton, so is handicapped to go well once more. He travelled well for a long way last time out at Fakenham over further, so the step back in trip should suit. Barry Brennan seldom runs a horse at Stratford, this is his 10th ever runner here, but he is 2 from 9 at the track. *Manger Hanagement > 4 Points Each-Way @ 20/1 VC BOG*

[The Saint]

Re: Finding Value In Handicaps Very best of luck - I am no longer convinced it's possible to make a long term profit betting into hcaps so pleased you are taking it easy with them. I make tissues for all the races I consider a bet in. Personally, I feel it should give you a massive advantage in terms of discipline and only betting when you consider the price to be right. Being utterly clueless on Jumps Racing I can't offer you any opinion on the above race but I do note that your book comes to around 125%. Granted, if you were an on course bookie, this would be very generous but unless you make them come to 100%, you might find that you find too many horses that are 'value' against your book(currently 5 above your tissue price). Also, the selection of Manger Hanagement is 8 points above your tissue price of 12/1. This represents a 2.93% shift in price(100/21)-(100/13). Loch Derg Way is available at 7/2 which represents a bigger discerpency in price - 8.54%, so I would say that on this occassion, that one represents the greater value(100/4.5)-(100/3.25). It might be that the 7/2 wasn't available when you considered your bet but this is another problem that the 'value' punter might encounter - different horses may become percieved 'value' at different times of the day. Absolutely nothing wrong with backing mre than 1 in a race - I am tending to use the last 15 minutes of betting as it cuts out the problem of getting on and saves me having to watch the market all day. Liquidity on the exchanges only tends to be higher at this point too. Sure, I will miss out on plenty of prices but that's how it's gonna have to be. Me bitching and squeling about Bookmakers closing accounts is not making any difference to them doing it!!! Best of Luck - definatly the right way forward imho. You're publically a much better tipster than I but hope some of the above is helpful or at least understandable!!!