2013 Test Matches

[Spankyf]

Japan Wales Japan have been keeping their powder dry for the PNC with the two test series against Wales given the priority. Horie from the Rebels and Tanaka (played v. well for the Highlanders last week) are called up. The Asian 5N was easily won again this year and Eddie Jones implied the competition was used to identify the cream of the crop well in advance of these two games. They were poor in the loss to Fiji last week but they didn't play to conditions. Wales have 15 of their squad away in Australia. 4 uncapped players start tomorrow with caretaker McBryde giving youth a chance. More than a few times the Welsh have remarked on the tough conditions they are facing with serious humidity and relatively hotter weather. Jones has the Japanese playing high tempo stuff who'll look to keep the ball moving. Their tactics and the Welsh disadvantage with climate and missing players/coaches has me interested in the alt. handicap for the hosts. USA Ireland Like Wales, Ireland are missing their best players to the Lions, but they're also got some younger lads playing for Emerging Ireland in Georgia. Whats left is a nearly-man team with O'Mahony getting to lead them out. It's a professional squad, probably as good as a Wolfhounds side but lacking in long term experience with Boss and Ross the oldest heads. The backline is very good and if Madigan still has his game boots on it could be an entertaining turn from the Irish, liberated from the conservatism of the Kidney era. The US field a pretty-close to full strength side with internationals Manoa, Clever, LaValla and the magic Ngwenya on the paddock. Like the above match, I think that David has to be more up for it than Goliath and i'm willing to take a punt on them. Last meeting between these two saw a 12 pt victory for Ireland to get them going in the World Cup. USA +30 / Japan +22 @ 1.88

[Nobber]

Re: Test Matches 2013 Only just seen this, which is a shame. Excellent summaries and hope you're a lot richer after last Saturday. Many thanks. Nobber.

[Spankyf]

Re: Test Matches 2013 Canada Ireland I'm at this game tonight in Toronto and will be pissing off the locals rooting for the boys in green. Don't think we will have it all our own way though. Canada are top of the PNC and the fact Crowley has had some extended time together with his group has paid dividends. A lot more astute tactically than they were before his reign, they notched impressive victories against Tonga & Fiji at home, who both fielded sides with a lot more pro players than themselves. The last game especially was vicious and they stood up superbly. Big players for them tonight will be Sinclair, Jonny Moonlight (excellent name), Carpenter and the reliable Pritchard. Ireland stuttered to a win last week and a bout of illness an injury means Kiss has even less continuity this week. Nice to see Downey get a (token) cap and the right choice at 10. Trimble will look to impress Schmidt on his 50th appearance and i'll be interested to see how O'Donnell goes on his run-on debut. I have been expecting upsets in these summer internationals with the Tier 2 nations getting a deserved chance to emerge from the shadows and take their chance against the best - particularly with so many Lions weakening the Welsh and Irish squads. Canada's home form has me leaning toward a handicap that should be closer to +6/7. Would look at Trimble to score a try but not at the awful prices quoted around 5/4: better off laying if he's that short. Canada +10 @ evens

[Spankyf]

Re: Test Matches 2013 [TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 9 November 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Italy v Australia (14:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 27 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.23 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]107.23 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] England v Argentina (14:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.14 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 34 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8.4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.57 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Scotland v Japan (14:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.07 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 41 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]107.01 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Wales v South Africa (17:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 21 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.72 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.12 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Ireland v Samoa (17:45 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.25 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 26 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]106.07 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] France v New Zealand (20:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6.8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 26 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.22 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.37 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Nobber]

Re: Test Matches 2013 Can anyone see any result other than every favourite winning this weekend ? I'd love to see Wales beat the Bok's but, even at a generous 2.5 against, hand on heart I think we'll go down - albeit not by much. The Scotland V Japan game might be interesting on the points spread as will be Italy V Australia but, as usual, the bookies are not being over-generous on either game. Excellent weekend of rugby coming up but will probably only risk a tenner on a Welsh win, just in case.

[Spankyf]

Re: Test Matches 2013 Been looking at the caps for a couple of days now and I agree there's not a lot to like. Only one's i'm half interested in are Japan +17, Italy +11 and South Africa -3 but not confident of any of them. Might just leave it alone. Would love to back NZ with a big sum but not at 1.2. Will probably sit back and enjoy like yourself Nob. Here's hoping the 6N teams can get some wins against the big 3 over the coming weeks.

[SteveO]

I think the boks should easily eclipse -3. They're a great side and not too far behind a superb AllBlack side. The Welsh will really miss Roberts at centre and Tipuric is so unlucky to be benched yet again. Wales rarely beat the Southern Hemispere sides even at home and will have to be at their very best to compete against this massive Bok side

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013 Test Matches Not a tip but I am taking a treble this weekend. I do think Ireland will win. Samoa had a decent return in the quadrangular tournament in the summer and are a very good team. I just think Ireland’s prep with 3 recent camps and home advantage will see them through. Should be a physical affair and an away card will have to be looked at. Schmidt’s first match in charge too so hopefully there will be a feeling of renewal for the home team. All Blacks are by far the best team in the world. The NH sides are at a disadvantage during November in terms of squad & game time together for these internationals while NZ are in peak form after another flawless Rugby Championship. I feel PSA is a good coach but with some new combinations in this XV I don’t think the French are ready to beat the Kiwi’s. A good performance would be good enough. Lastly, same argument for the Wales game. I agree with Steve that -3 for the Boks is generous. I think it will be a tight enough affair but like the above, South Africa have big momentum and are the only team close to NZ. Treble for NZ/SA/Ireland is about 2.5 on most books.

[jndnisc]

Re: 2013 Test Matches I think Italy are a good shout at +11 vs an average Australian outfit. England performed very well against a poor Argentina team during the Lions tour, and with reported disarray in the Argie camp -13 should be overcome by England. Agree about SA comments above. NZ -10 vs an erratic French side is a tough call.

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013 Test Matches :welcome to Punterslounge jndnisc. Good luck with the bets this weekend

[SteveO]

Plumped for SA -2 on the HT handicap at evens with Stan. Looking at the Rugby Championship SA scotedmost of their points during the first half of games apart from the hone game against Argentina. That makes sense as they are such a big and physical side they're bound to have stamina issues and Wales always seem to finish games strongly. Thought about the winning margin too of between 1-12 for SA but gone with the HT handicap and hopefully it will come in and I can then cheer on my home side :-)

[Nobber]

Re: 2013 Test Matches Good call SteveO. Well, no surprises in results yesterday but I'm really glad I didn't bother with the points spread in the Italy and Japan games. Looking forward to next weekend now. ATB. Nobber.

[SteveO]

Great game weren't it Nob. I was really impressed with the Welsh performance especially with Davies and Jones going off so early in the game, Priestland looks back to his best and was impressed with the speed at which Wales ran the ball. Hope Tipuric gets a game next week he really suits Wales' style of play especially against lesser opposition.

[Nobber]

Re: 2013 Test Matches With the injuries we've got, he'll be in the bloody centre !!

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013 Test Matches [TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 16 November 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Italy v Fiji (14:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.31 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 29 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]121.45 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] England v New Zealand (14:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 10.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 80 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.16 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]96.49 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Wales v Argentina (14:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.25 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 34 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.8 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.18 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] France v Tonga (17:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.06 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 44 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 16 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.86 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Ireland v Australia (17:45 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.24 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 25 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.91 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.00 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 17 November 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Scotland v South Africa (15:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 44 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.12 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.86 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013 Test Matches Do think the All Blacks will win well. Won’t be opposing England by 13 pts though and the NZ win odds are predictably miniscule. I think Fiji +7 and Ireland are the value. Ireland should be more than a match in the set piece, I just worry about the defence on McFaddens side against Toomua / Folau and everyone took notice with Australia’s 30 pt win last week. Italy struggling to look consistent since the 6N and do think there’ll be points in that game so may look at an overs line. No tips from me but anyone else taking at punt?

[Nobber]

Re: 2013 Test Matches It seems to me that the bookies have got it right (again) on the 'win' market with the possible exception of the Ireland v Australia game. First time up this season for Ireland against decent opposition but they usually do OK - unlike Wales - especially at home. Australia were dire against England but then stuffed Italy so, how good are Italy ? Not very I think. The Aussies have some class performers behind the pack, better than the Irish backs individually, but they don't always play like part of the team. Their front five have, rightly, taken some stick and there's no doubt the Irish pack is the better of the two. This will be the Aussie's third game in three weeks and from what I saw last week the Cons. have improved quite a bit from the England game- but there again, they couldn't really fail to and it was against a poor'ish Italian side. I'm going to take the -1.5 points on Australia @1/1 to come away from the Aviva with a narrow win. This is based on the fact that Oz have (hopefully) had enough time together now to string a half-decent performance together and against an Irish side missing five of their Lions and looking a bit vulnerable against a quality Aussie backline. Bet is: Australia to win @evens giving up 1.5 points with Bet365.

[Nobber]

Re: 2013 Test Matches Aussies looked good for the first time on tour but Ireland were absolute pants. Don't think the Wales v Australia game is going to be as easy as people first thought. They were dominant at scum time which was really unexpected. De Bokke predictably smashed Scotland despite the Jocks having an incredible 70% possession in the second half. The SA defence was awesome but Scotland were very poor I thought.

[Nobber]

Re: 2013 Test Matches Anybody got any strong views on the Wales v Australia game ? Even the bookies have this one at 20/21 both teams. I'd love Wales to do this one but the Aussies are getting to be a pretty smart outfit this last couple of weeks and a far cry from the shambling bunch of drunks who were terrible against England in their first match. I reckon - as everyone else does, probably - it'll be close but I'm afraid the Aussies have the wood over Wales and, like all SH teams, seem to have greater mental strength and determination than us in the NH. Feck it, going to put a tenner on the draw and just watch the game. Good luck all. Nobber.

[SteveO]

I think we're missing three very important players Nob in Adam Jones Jamie Roberts and Jon Davies. The Aussie scrum isn't too hot so we should be ok there but it's our centres I'm worried about especially in defence. South Africa scored some real simple tries against us and I fear the aussies could do the same. Wales can and should win this game but need to up their intensity in the openongminutes ad Ireland did against New Zealand last week. think we'll win but not overly confident.

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013 Test Matches Do think Biggar can move the pack around a lot and provide a platform but I think it’s breaking the gainline the Welsh will have problems with – Australia very solid defensively in the backs and Wales missing their best centres. Australia have been giving a way a lot fewer penalties and the back row isn’t the huge advantage it would have looked on paper six months ago. It’s going to come down to fine margins and the team who want it more will win. After watching the Irish performance last week, passion is sure to be a big factor and I’m looking forward to a cracker. Heart says Wales because they’ve come so close so many times but head is saying Oz and I took the -1. Hope for you two boyo's i'm wrong :cheers

[SteveO]

Yeah I'd like to see North come off his wing a lot more to drag players in but you summed it up it's breaking that gainline that Wales struggle with especially with big Jamie missing. Wales still play far too laterally for my liking and I hope Phillips mixes it up a lot more as Murray did in his excellent performance against nz last week.