Handicap Speed Ratings.

[Stephen1991]

Long time reader first time poster. In essence my system is based on the TS figure that is available on the RP website. That being said the TS won't be taken on face value, in that i wont simply be looking for the horse that has the achieved the greatest difference between TS figure and its current handicap mark, I will be analysing the TS figure with a number of factors in mind such as; draw, ground & pace bias . I will try to go into some level of detail for each selection and hopefully my 'logic' will work out and provide a few winners. My staring balance will be 100pts. My first selection comes in the 2.50 at Nottingham. Dark Opal won its last race at the back end of last year off a mark of 70 with a TS figure of 76. On her seasonal debut off of only 3lbs higher, i think she could be a little over priced at 20/1. Dark Opal 1pt e/w 20/1 BOG The next selection is Presburg in the 4.10 at Brighton. I like two of his runs over this distance at the back end of last year, one at Windsor where he got a TS figure of 80 & the other at Sandown where he achieved a figure of 82. If he runs close to either of these figures he should go close. At odds of 9/1 i believe that he is a decent E/w bet. Presburg 1pt e/w 9/1 BOG My next selection comes in the 4.30 at Newcastle. LTO Mean it achieved a TS speed figure of 77 on only his third start & with his current mark only being 1lb higher I believe there is a good possibility that he will rate a bit higher than this in time. In addition to this his breeding/trainer comments seem to suggest that he will enjoy the step up in trip. Although MEAN IT is indeed short enough at 11/10 i am willing to take the slightly skinny odds in a race i believe to be short on depth/ potential improves. Mean It 5 pts 11/10 Bet 365 BOG 5.30 Kingscroft. Kingscroft has been falling in the weights recently and is back down to a winnable mark with a favorable draw up against the stands side rail to help. Kingscroft 1pt e/w 15/2 All feedback/debate is welcome.

[The Saint]

Re: Handicap Speed Ratings. Hi Stephen - best of luck with the thread. From my personal experience of using Topspeed Figures I can offer the following; They are a very powerful tool - personally, I only tend to use the last run as significant or will carry forward a good TS figure if the horse still appears to be in form during a subseqent run. I have made good profits using this technique in the past but as with any selection method on the horses, there can be long and arduous losing runs. Personally, I consider the Top Speed and any other speed ratings over the jumps as a complete waste of time and effort. I also think they tend to work best on the AW or when the weather is settled. It's a system I don't tend to use as much anymore as horses that record a big speed figure in relation to their hcap mark tend to be overbet as soon as 365 or whomever draw up a market. This can lead to the selections being overbet and not offering a value price. It can also lead to account closure if you keep jumping on at prices that beat SP on a regular basis. Best of Luck with it - will be watching with interest :ok Oh - :welcome btw!!