Maiden help

[erhaab1965]

Question for the advanced gamblers on here : how do you assess horses based on breeding? There are many of you on here who do your own tissue prices and frame your own for each race. How do you decide on the odds if they have never run before? Let's take a maiden race where the entire field are unraced. How do you determine which ones are fancied and which ones aren't. How can breeding determine the way a horse is priced up. I've been punting for many years and to be honest I know very little about the breeding aspect of the sport. Infact yesterday I looked at a horse called Abu Nayef ,owned by Jabber Abdulla ( Nayef / Queens Logic ). Given the dam and sire were Gr1 winners I would have automatically assumed the offspring would be a black type horse, however after 3 runs it was still a maiden rated in the 70s and eventually finished unplaced. Sometimes I see horses by Pivotal and Kyllachy both Gr1 sprinters producing middle distance horses, how does that work? I know there are some clued up punters on here who are already on horses like Mars and the unraced Hydrogen, how did you come to back these horses ante post even before they had run , was it the breeding? Where do I begin?

[Primevil]

Re: Maiden help 1. Price is no Guarantee, Look at Mark Johnstone, how many time has he paid 6 figure sums for horses that barely reach 75 or in their lives. 2. A field full of Maidens, Normally I would watch, however, If the Gallop reports have been consistently been flagging 1 up....like FRANKEL was, it may be worth following. Stats of trainers FTO are normally a good starting point. J Bolger R hannon, have good records, these yards tend to want to know were they stand instantley. However take L Cumani, christmas comes more often than FTO winners. 3. Betfair, late money in maidens is crucial, if you fancy one, the opposite can be said for a drifter, the Market is a very good guide, You would struggle to get the tissue correct in maidens. 4. There is no guarantee that all off spring from G1 winners become black type, however the hope by breeders is the majority will, Jim Bolger, was never confident when Dawn Approach first turned up, as the previous siblings, half brothers sisters turned out to be average at best, but DA was the 4th or 5th, and BINGO! 5. Pivotal/ Kyllachy sprinters... Pivotal, grand dam/grand sire full of mile n middle distance form, so whilst they think they will have a sprinter, genes can be passed thru, on the staying side. And if a trainer only trains a horse as a sprinter, it does not mean it cant stay, most dont even try....RED RUM a classic example. 6. Mars, is from a yard were the majority of unraced 2yo, with loads of entries will be backed ...blind...Hydrogen has always be touted by gallop watchers since early spring, but the trainer always talks one up. Just be careful, my advice see them on the track first then make your mind up.