Flat Racing - Thursday 18th April

[Bathtime For Rupert]

2.55 Newmarket - 2pts e/w Havana Beat @ 17/2 (VC) I accept that the favourite may be tough to beat but odds on is far too short in my eyes as this is a 3f step up in trip, for all it may suit, and I wasn't totally keen with his head carriage when winning here when last seen. He didn't seem the most willing to the eye and as strange as it sounds he travelled almost too well for me over the 7f trip to slightly concern me being stepped up to 1m2f today. I'm not saying he won't win, or doesn't deserve to be favourite, but the value all lies with Andrew Balding's charge in my eyes. His official rating of 85 is nonsense really so don't take that on face value. He only just failed over 7f on debut but won decisively in the end on his second start at Sandown over a mile. I like the fact that he was under pressure before the two leaders but stayed on strongly in the closing stages to get on top and win going away by nearly 3 lengths at the finish. He appeared to outstay his rivals and certainly will relish this step up in trip. The fact that he did so with the runner-up subsequently scoring over this trip to be rated 95 and the two other of the horses who've run again since from the leading group that day are now rated 85 and 78 (the latter likely to prove better - got handicap mark after running after a break). That suggests my selection is far better than an 85-rated horse and the step up in trip looks sure to send him into the 100s I think. Another plus is that Balding has his horses going well in the early stages of the season and John Gosden's are just looking like they may need the run a bit more. Altogether I think 17/2 is a knocking each-way price and I think he can upset the favourite (and the rest) too. Will be disappointed if he isn't in the frame at the very least. 4.30 Ripon - 1pt win Queens Revenge @ 25/1 (Bet365) Tim Easterby's runner is the outsider of the party but showed plenty of smart form at 2 and I don't think she had the races drop right for her last season. She won here on debut (defying greenness to finish strongly to lead close home) before being an unlucky 4th in the Hilary Needler next time out at Beverley. Seemed not to cope with the soft ground at Newmarket on her final start that year and came back over longer trips last campaign. She ran an eyecatching race over a mile on good to soft on her reappearance effort at Musselburgh considering I still see her as a decent ground sprinter and that bodes well for her return this time around and she ran in much tougher races than this on soft ground after that. Drops markedly in grade here and back into a 6f race on good ground. That will suit and her runs fresh haven't been bad. Has to bounce back a little but I'm sure she's better than a 25/1 shot and therefore we'll side with her today.

[cpo]

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 18th April 4.30 Ripon Victoire De Lyphar 2pts win @ 12/1 >Bet365 Bit of an all or nothing selection with this one as the stable aren’t exactly flying and this one has plenty to prove. I did however think there were better signs from the yards runners today with a well-backed runner going very close and a 50/1 shot from the yard running well. This horse was an extremely useful sprinter in his 3-year-old season winning at York off 90 and then finishing runner up in 2 competitive handicaps off 97 and 101. Since that season this horse has gone backwards and is now rated a lowly 82 but he is still only a 6 year old so it is to soon to right him off. He is now with Ruth Carr and this will be his 5^th start for the yard and I believe the yard may have now got to the bottom of him. He ran his best race for the yard 2 outings ago when finishing 2^nd at Ayr in a first time eye shield. They choose to leave that aid off on his return to action this season, when trying him on the all weather surface at Southwell. He appeared to hate the surface and finished 10^th of 11 but I feel they were just trying to get a run into him. Connections have chosen to reapply the eye shield for his return to turf and I feel he may be ready to take advantage of his drop in ratings. Ruth Carr has a good record at this track and shows a very healthy level stakes profit of +£26.63. This is the type of horse she excels with and no doubt she will get a win or two out of him of which the first will hopefully come tomorrow. Sandy Lane is the short priced favourite for this race tomorrow and looks to hold every chance after a demolition job last time out but I will be taking him on. He is up 6lbs in a higher grade but still looks well ahead of the handicapper. Interestingly enough if you look at the last 2 renewals of this race, David O’Meara has had the short price favourite on both occasions and both times they have been well beaten. Maybe it will be 3^rd time lucky, but at 6/4 I would rather back something else in the race. 2.55 Newmarket Enaitch 1pt EW @ 20/1 >Bet365 Ghurair is ridiculously short for this race despite him looking like the most likely winner. I think there are certainly some nice prices about if you fancy taking on the favourite, which I do. The one I like the look of is the once raced Enaitch from the Mick Channon yard. I did get my fingers burnt today from a once raced horse in Lady Nouf but I am happy to have another go with this horse. I thought she ran a very eye-catching race on debut when finishing 3^rd to Secret Gesture. She was very green throughout the race and only just got the hang of things in the final couple of furlongs once the 2 leaders had already gone for home. She was the only horse to come from off the pace and she finished really well to finish just over 2 lengths behind the 2^nd horse I Say and 10 lengths in front of the 4^th. She is by New Approach so is bred to relish this sort of trip and she could be a massive improver over 10f. She is clearly going to have to be a very smart horse to get the better of the 111 rated Ghurair but I feel she might be able to sneak a place. She cost connections 250,000gns, is well related and also has an Oaks entry. Horses from this yard usually come on plenty form their first runs and I would hope this would be the case with Enaitch.