PGA Tour - System Trial

[Boulder5111]

Hello All, I've just come up with this system for the PGA Tour that I'd like to trial. I've no idea if it'll be profitable so it's just a test at the moment. Initially I was just going to post match bets which I suspect will be the most profitable (if it works), but I couldn't resist putting up some long shots as well and I think the top 10 market might be the best place to back these. Anyway let's see how it goes..... Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill 72 Hole Match Bets (1pt on each) Jason Dufner (5/6) to beat Ricky Fowler Justin Rose (Evens) to beat Sergio Garcia Graeme McDowell (4/5) to beat Keegan Bradley Scott Piercy (Evens) to beat Jimmy Walker Pat Perez (10/11) to beat K J Choi Bill Haas (Evens) to beat Jason Day Brendon De Jonge (Evens) to beat Charles Howell III Top 10 Finish (1pt on each) Ryan Moore 7/1 Bo Van Pelt 7/1 Zach Johnson 9/1 John Senden 9/1 Brendon De Jonge 11/1 Ben Curtis 16/1 Brian Davis 20/1 Ben Crane 20/1 Ken Duke 30/1

[ThemanwiththeSTATS]

How did you come to the conclusion that de jonge would beat Charles Howell ? Because statistics , form , previous course form and all round common sense would suggest Howell is a far better betting proposition. Good luck with your system but to me it just looks like a bunch of random picks without a lot of thought and reasoning.

[Boulder5111]

Re: PGA Tour - System Trial Results Jason Dufner (5/6) to beat Ricky Fowler -1pt Justin Rose (Evens) to beat Sergio Garcia +1pt Graeme McDowell (4/5) to beat Keegan Bradley -1pt Scott Piercy (Evens) to beat Jimmy Walker -1pt Pat Perez (10/11) to beat K J Choi +0.91pt Bill Haas (Evens) to beat Jason Day +1pt Brendon De Jonge (Evens) to beat Charles Howell III -1pt 3 from 7 gives a loss of 1.09pts on the match bets Top 10 Finish (1pt on each) Ryan Moore 7/1 Bo Van Pelt 7/1 Zach Johnson 9/1 John Senden 9/1 Brendon De Jonge 11/1 Ben Curtis 16/1 Brian Davis 20/1 Ben Crane 20/1 Ken Duke 30/1 (tied 8th) Ken Duke finished in a 5 way tie for 8th which (I think) means that the 30/1 becomes 10/1 since he's sharing the postion. If that's the case, then I reckon it's 9pts staked and 11pts returned for a 2pt profit on the top 10 market. Duke rather fell over the line in the end having looked set for a top 10 finish outright for much of the last couple of rounds. Also going into the last round Curtis (8/1) and Senden at 9/1 were in with a shout but faded away. It kept the interest going through to the last day anyway. Profit of +0.91pts overall

[Boulder5111]

Re: PGA Tour - System Trial Not so many for this tournament.... Shell Houston Open 72 Hole match bets (1pt on each) Jimmy Walker (9/10) to beat Bill Haas Keegan Bradley (10/11) to beat Hunter Mahan Top 10 finish (1pt on each) Jimmy Walker 5/1 Bo Van Pelt 6/1 Jeff Overton 10/1 Ben Crane 12/1 Jonas Blixt 16/1 James Driscoll 18/1

[Boulder5111]

Re: PGA Tour - System Trial Results 72 Hole match bets (1pt on each) Jimmy Walker (9/10) to beat Bill Haas -1pt Keegan Bradley (10/11) to beat Hunter Mahan +0.91pt Top 10 finish (1pt on each) Jimmy Walker 5/1 Bo Van Pelt 6/1 Jeff Overton 10/1 Ben Crane 12/1 (4th) Jonas Blixt 16/1 James Driscoll 18/1 Ben Crane finished 4th, he was somewhere in the region of a 150/1 shot pre tournament and was joint leader about half way through the final round but ended up finishing 2 shots back in a tie for 4th with Dustin Johnson. Jeff Overton was looking good for a while but ended up 27th. 8pts staked on the tournament, returns are 13.91pts so profit of +5.91pts on the tournament. Overall Stakes : 24pts Returns 30.82pts Profit : +6.82pts (+28.4% ROI)

[Boulder5111]

Re: PGA Tour - System Trial Valero Texas Open 72 Hole Matchbets (1pt on each) Greg Chalmers (Evens) to beat Aaron Baddeley Billy Horschel (10/11) to beat Bud Cauley John Huh (10/11) to beat Brendan Steele Brendan De Jonge (10/11) to beat Kevin Chappell Brian Gay (10/11) to beat Charlie Wi Padraig Harrington (10/11) to beat Charley Hoffman Ian Poulter (10/11) to beat Fredrik Jacobson Top 10 Finish (1pt on each) John Huh 6/1 Brian Gay 7/1 Ben Curtis 8/1 David Toms 9/1 Chris Stroud 12/1 Tom Gillis 16/1 Brandt Jobe 16/1 Richard Lee 20/1

[Boulder5111]

Re: PGA Tour - System Trial Results Greg Chalmers (Evens) to beat Aaron Baddeley -1pt Billy Horschel (10/11) to beat Bud Cauley +0.91pt John Huh (10/11) to beat Brendan Steele -1pt Brendan De Jonge (10/11) to beat Kevin Chappell -1pt Brian Gay (10/11) to beat Charlie Wi +0.91pt Padraig Harrington (10/11) to beat Charley Hoffman -1pt Ian Poulter (10/11) to beat Fredrik Jacobson -1pt No winners in the top 10 market but a very near miss. In truth, only Richard Lee (me neither!) was in with a shout going into the final round and he had a 9 footer on the last to land the 20/1 odds but missed. Even then it required last birdies from those around him to mean him missing out on the top 10 place, he traded at around 1/2 so that's put the thread in the red for the first time. Stakes : 39pts Returns 32.64pts Loss : -6.36pts (-16.3% ROI) Anyway onto the best tourney of the year...... US MASTERS 72 Hole Matchbets (1pt on each) Luke Donald (10/11) to beat Adam Scott Zach Johnson (10/11) to beat Angel Cabrera Jason Dufner(10/11) to beat Graeme McDowell Jason Day (11/10) to beat Ricky Fowler Sergio Garcia (10/11) to beat Hunter Mahan Steve Stricker (10/11) to beat Nick Watney Top 10 Finish (1pt on each) Jason Dufner 5/1 Steve Stricker 5/1 Jim Furyk 11/2 Bill Haas 13/2 Zach Johnson 8/1 Scott Piercy 14/1 Carl Petterson 16/1 Brian Gay 20/1 Ben Curtis 20/1 Kevin Na 20/1