jump racing saturday 16/2/2013

[beaker1]

Betfred Midlands Grand National – Uttoxeter, 3:50 When Synchronised landed this race under 11st 5lb in 2010 the ground was almost untraceable, so much so that only three of the eighteen runners actually finished. That may well form part of the reason for his success under such a big weight as usually the Midlands Grand National favours those from towards the bottom of the handicap. Prior to his success, the previous eight consecutive winners had all carried 10st 9lbs or less and that trend has continued in the two years since his victory. With the ground for Saturday’s race currently described as Good to Soft; the top-weights Carruthers, Master Overseer and Silver By Nature look to have plenty to prove. Synchronised’s victory meant that he became the highest rated Midlands National winner since Young Kenny 11 years earlier. Both horses were rated in excess of 140 but they appear to be the exception rather than the norm. The most successful band appears to be from 122-133, a trait shared by nine of the last ten winners. That also suggests that Carruthers, Master Overseer, Monbeg Dude and Silver By Nature have a very tough task on their hands. Both Minella Four Star and Master Overseer weren’t your typical winner’s in the two previous renewals of this race as they pulled up on their most recent starts. Only two other recent winners, G V A Ireland and The Bunny Boiler, had failed to finish in the first three prior to winning the Midlands Grand National. Taking this one stage further, four of those remaining seven winners had been successful on their most recent start. So the last time out winners, Cool Operator, Rebeccas Choice, Chac Du Cadran, Master Overseer and Overseer are of particular interest. Master Overseer joined Synchronised, Russian Trigger, Ackzo, Intelligent, Philson Run, GVA Ireland and Himalayan Trail in that they had never fallen or unseated in their chasing careers prior to victory here, confirming that it is the safer jumpers that are the main group to focus on. Of those remaining in contention Silver By Nature, Monbeg Dude, Fill The Power, Major Malarkey, Cool Operator, Global Power, and You Know Yourself now make much less appeal. It really would be splitting hairs trying to separate the past ten winners by age. nine-year-olds hold a miniscule advantage having won four of the last 10 renewals but eight and nine-year-olds are hot on their heels with three wins apiece. However, considering that seven-year-olds make up the smallest percentage of actual runners in an average year, their chances must be respected. That suggests that Fill The Power and Global Power deserve to be left in the running. What is interesting is the complete lack of any older winners on the roll of honour. It is not as if runners aged ten or above have been thin on the ground, because they haven’t. So at this late stage anything aged 10 or above must come off any shortlists. Shortlist Chac Du Cadran Global Power Conclusion Top spot on the shortlist goes to the seven-year-old Chac Du Cadran who ticks all of the right boxes being a last time out winner, having never fallen or unseated, with form over 3m4f and weighted and rated in just about an ideal spot. He has only raced five times this season and has seemingly improved with every start so it is possible that we haven’t seen the best of him yet over this sort of staying trip. The 3m4f trip certainly agreed with him at Catterick last time when he won a competitive North Yorkshire National with something up his sleeve so he may just be still ahead of handicapper. Global Power meets with all of the positive trends barring being a last time out winner, however his run at Chepstow last time out showed enough for me to forgive him that. He is another lightly raced chaser that showed his stamina last time out when he chased home Saffron De Cotte over three miles. He is as yet untried over this far but he has shaped as though this stamina test could suit and he may go close off a featherweight.

[BillyHills]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013

350 Uttoxeter A very good renewal of the Midlands National and plenty of chances spread across the handicap. Top weight Carruthers is bound to run his usual game race while Chac Du Cadran gets in here off just 10st. He was my fancy for the Eider at Newcastle before that was abandoned and see no reason to desert him now. He stays forever and is improving and must go close here. Cool Operator and Fill The Power are live threats and just prefer the Kirby horse as an alternative selection. Selections; 2pts Chac Du Cadran 7/2

Paddy Power 1pt Cool Operator 8/1 Betfred

Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/midland-grand-national-betting-chac-du-cadran-to-land-stamina-test-at-uttoxeter