Jumps Racing - Thursday 7th March

[Bathtime For Rupert]

2.00 Wincanton - 2pts win Fashion Week @ 7/1 (Bet365) Susan Gardner's runner was pulled up last time out but it's very easy to forgive him that run as it was his first for nine months and came on heavy ground here over 2m6f. He did actually run well for a long way but understandably got tired quickly and was pulled up rather than persist through the deep ground. He went off at 30 on Betfair and traded at 9.2 at a point so I think this shows he did run a promising race considering he was in midfield so it's not as if he was a front-runner to get so much shorter in the run. All of his best form has come on a sounder surface so that's the other obvious excuse. He's been 1st and 2nd from 11 runs - both coming on good and good to firm ground. He also ran two decent races in novice events where he was obviously going to struggle at the weights on ground not too boggy. He's only run twice since his win and both came on heavy so with this forecast surface much more in his favour I'm hopeful he can bounce right back to the form that saw him win at Newton Abbot (2nd won next time, pair clear). Matt Griffiths is 1-1 on the horse as well so everything looks right for a bold effort. 2.10 Carlisle - 2pts win Karinga Dandy @ 6/1 (PP) Sue Smith trains the front two in the market and despite there not being much between the two at the prices, I am surprised that this horse is not the outright favourite for the contest. It is true that he does look like he'll stay further and was doing good late work at Wetherby last time over 2m4f but this track is more of a test which can suit and his form does look particularly strong. I think he's very fairly treated and so long as he doesn't get too far back in this, I think he'll take a lot of beating for all this may not be his optimum trip. He won a point to point prior to going hurdling and his two runs have been very solid. He was 2nd over 2m1f at Sedgefield when beaten 1 3/4l by a decent type (11l back to the third) and it was a hot race he contested at Wetherby last time. The winner won again at Ascot next time (beating a good sort who won next time out) to get a rating of 142, the second won next time to be rated 136 and the third was 2nd in a handicap and then 2nd in a Grade 2 to be rated 135. My selection today runs off 114 with 3lbs taken off his back. This is obviously far easier (0-115 handicap) and this track can suit a bit more. He could also be made more use of to utilise his stamina and I just feel his mark is very exploitable. The yard are going perfectly well and I'd be surprised if this one wasn't bang there. 2.40 Carlisle - 2pts win Balding Banker @ 11/2 (Hills) Ferdy Murphy's runner was in the process of running a big race when coming to grief at the 3rd last fence last time out at Catterick. He was closing in on the lead when falling but can be excused of that given it was the first time he hasn't completed and has a largely consistent profile. He was 2nd at Ayr the time before that but the winner won off 8lbs higher next time out to frank the form with Murphy's charge allowed to run off the same mark today. It's difficult to say whether he'd have won at Catterick as he hasn't fully convinced over 3m before and this 2m5f trip should be absolutely spot on with the track also likely to suit. Although versatile ground-wise he has shown a lot of his best form on a sounder surface so this looks another positive. Ferdy Murphy has had a quiet season but this horse has been running well regardless and considering the yard's runners often improve in the spring he could well be still improving this campaign. Looks sure to run his race if he stands up and the trip, track and ground all look a positive this afternoon.